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Rediscovering vietnam s real estate potenial
REDISCOVERING VIETNAM’S REAL ESTATE POTENTIAL 1 st March, 2007 Renaissance Hotel, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Presented by: Marc Townsend – Managing Director CB Richard Ellis | Page 2 Client Logo Goes Here WHAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE PROPERTY MARKET SINCE 2003? •Limited capital markets •An emerging condo market in Hanoi and HCMC • Conspicuous consumption • Ability to borrow from local banks at 10-11% per annum • Consistently rising GDP and FDI • China + 1, APRC, the Stock Market and entry to WTO has put Vietnam on the radar screen, coupled with the ML report in Feb and the Euro Money Conference in Mar 2006 • Saturation in other South East Asian markets CB Richard Ellis | Page 3 Client Logo Goes Here MAP OF VIETNAM CB Richard Ellis | Page 4 Client Logo Goes Here HO CHI MINH CITY CB Richard Ellis | Page 5 Client Logo Goes Here VIETNAM TODAY • No Starbucks and No MacDonalds • World leaders in pepper, coffee, cashew, shoes, fish/prawns, oil & gas exports • No shortage of land, just good sites • “If you build it, they will come” still exists but may not last much longer • Many similarities to China in the early 90s in terms of work ethic, chaos on the streets, migration of work force and market driven decisions • Traffic, complete absence of infrastructure, MRT/MTR, bridges and tunnels CB Richard Ellis | Page 6 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC OFFICE MARKET HCMC Prime Office Stock End of Q1.2007 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 Q1/0 4 Q2/04 Q3 /0 4 Q4/04 Q1 /0 5 Q2 /0 5 Q3 /0 5 Q4/05 Q1 /0 6 Q2 /0 6 Q3/06 Q4 /0 6 Q1/0 7 s q m Office Stock at the beginning of the quarter New supply during the quarter CB Richard Ellis | Page 7 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC OFFICE MARKET Prime Office Rental Index 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Q1 98 Q2 98 Q3 98 Q4 98 Q1 99 Q2 99 Q3 99 Q4 99 Q1 00 Q2 00 Q3 00 Q4 00 Q1 01 Q2 01 Q3 01 Q4 01 Q1 02 Q2 02 Q3 02 Q4 02 Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1.07 Index (Q1 1998 = 100) And the upward trend will continue due to: • Growing demand • Delays in new supply US-VN Bilateral Trade Agreement CB Richard Ellis | Page 8 Client Logo Goes Here Major Buildings Existing - Future Centec EVN Vietcombank Times Square M&C Tower Financial Tower VPBank Sailing Tower Pacific Place Asiana Plaza Metropolitan Saigon Tower Sun Wah Saigon Center Diamond Plaza Gemadept Saigon Trade Center Me Linh Point PetroVietnam 9 DTH Vimedimex Sacombank Bao Viet Golden Tower CB Richard Ellis | Page 9 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC OFFICE MARKET SOME OF THE NEW OFFICE BUILDINGS COMPLETED IN Q1. 2007 Opera View, Dist. 1 Lancaster, Dist. 1 Rosaco, Dist. 1 Petro Vietnam, Dist. 1 E – Town 2, Tan Binh District Estimated Total Supply in Q1. 2007: 47,843 sqm CB Richard Ellis | Page 10 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC OFFICE MARKET Take up and vacancy rate of HCMC office buildings - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Q1.04 Q2.04 Q3.04 Q4.04 Q1.05 Q2.05 Q3.05 Q4.05 Q1.06 Q2.06 Q3.06 Q4.06 s q m 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% % Take-up (Sqm) Vacancy Rate (%) [...]... 20,000 sqm (12,000 sqm for lease) Asiana Plaza 32,000 sqm HCMC Power Head Office 20,000 sqm (10,000 sqm for lease) Gemadept 16,500 sqm (10,000 sqm for lease) 76,500 sqm (32,000 sqm for lease) CB Richard Ellis | Page 17 A&B 25,000 sqm 2010 Vietcombank 77,000 sqm M&C Tower 35,000 sqm Financial Tower 100,000 sqm 2011 Times Square 31,000 sqm 2010 113,000 sqm 212,000 sqm Client Logo Goes Here RESIDENTIAL... Rental Cost am Difficult Termination er at on Negatives: 0 0 Di Facilities – Gym, Pool Sh No Maintenance Supply Average Rent ($US/sqm/mth) Less Usable Area Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 28 RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE HCMC District 1 & 3 Highest demand for serviced apartments Very limited supply, especially for International quality projects There are 7 grade A serviced apartment projects provide... Pasteur Court Pasteur Street, District 3, 5 minutes to CBD Project January 2007 11 1,160 10 – 12 4-5 bdrs Client Logo Goes Here RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE HCMC - FUTURE PROJECTS An Phu Small SA The Manor 2 Kumho Asiana Plaza Saigon Riverview Apartments Times Square Saigon Pearl Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 33 VN STOCK MARKET VN Index from 18 July 2000 to 27 February 2007 Client Logo Goes... infrastructure remain high More buyers have real needs and there will not be as many as speculators as previously Demand forecasted to be increased 6-7% in a few years to come partly thanks to loan flexibility of banks Buyers become more and more savvy, so developer s brand plays a more and more important role Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 26 RESIDENTIAL VILLA HCMC Pr ice Tr end of Phu... Villa – D.12 Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 27 HCMC RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE MARKET OVERVIEW Ho Chi Minh City Serviced Apartments Current Serviced Apartments Positives: Units 200 50 160 40 120 30 Security 80 20 Fully Furnished 40 10 Generic Appearance Pl az a N (O ce an on d Pl or ac fo e) lk M an So sio Se m er do n se na tC Su ha i te nc s ell or So C m ou er rt se tH CM C La nd m ar k LT... Factors driving demand: Strong economic growth, FDI growth, WTO access, new multi-national companies, expansion of existing multi-national companies, Vietnam companies upgrading, safety & quality Issues Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 14 HCMC OFFICE MARKET HCMC MAJOR UNDER CONSTRUCTION OFFICE DEVELOPMENTS IN Q1&Q2/07 Manulife - Dist 7 6,000 Q 2 2 0 0 7 Cetpa - Tan Binh 11,945 N'Orch - Dist... units from 1 to 4 bedrooms Average occupancy rate is now 96% (both grade A and B) with most marketable size of 1 & 2 bedrooms, from 50 – 80 sqm The rent for most of the serviced apartments are up by 10 – 20%, from US$22 to US$31 per sqm per month in January 2006 to US$25 to US$35 in December 2006 Due to the limited supply and growing demand, rent are expected to keep rising during 2007 Client Logo Goes... Limited grade A office space still remains Some new supply of Grade B office space expected to come on line during 2007 Expected year of completion Supply of new grade Expected A, B & C supply buildings (sqm) 2007 27 158,798 2008 18 180,657 2009 15 187,824 Grade A office rental rates reflects upward momentum and growing demand vis-à-vis tight supply 2010 12 273,146 Vacancy rate remains low, grade A (0%)... Ellis | Page 19 RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC Completed Condominium Units year-by-year 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1999 2003 2006 Q1/07 Over U S$ 2, 000 141 252 U S$ 1, 501 - U S$ 2, 000 526 Less U S$ 600 2005 97 U S$ 1, 001 - U S$ 1, 500 U S$ 600 - U S$ 1, 000 2004 798 124 66 270 1, 110 1, 965 1, 330 552 1, 594 405 881 Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 20 RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC A v e r age S e l l i ng P... Capitaland Vista-D.2 Ben Thanh Orient Plaza-D.1 Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 24 RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC TRENDS: New money flow from stock market into property Strong investment wave from Asia: Korea, Japan, Singapore Keen on buying projects already licensed and under construction instead of leasing land, developing from the beginning Hot market with more money from foreign institutional . REDISCOVERING VIETNAM S REAL ESTATE POTENTIAL 1 st March, 2007 Renaissance Hotel, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Presented by: Marc Townsend – Managing. Richard Ellis | Page 5 Client Logo Goes Here VIETNAM TODAY • No Starbucks and No MacDonalds • World leaders in pepper, coffee, cashew, shoes, fish/prawns, oil