IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) ON THE ECONOMY OF HUNG YEN PROVINCE (1998-2010) A RESEARCH PRESENTED TO THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE SCHOOL SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY LUCBAN, QUEZON, PHILIPPINES AND THAI NGUYEN UNIVERSITY, S.R VIETNAM IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE DOCTOR IN BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Supervisor: Associate Professor, Dr TRAN CHI THIEN Student Name: PHAM THI TUYET NHUNG English name: ANNA Thai Nguyen, 2013 i ACKNOWLEDGMENT Throughout the course of research leading to the completion of this dissertation, I would like to express my deep gratitude to many people who have supported me with tremendous help in one way or another, which I think I cannot possibly acknowledge in full The first and foremost, I would like to thank Associate Professor, Dr Tran Chi Thien, my advisor, for his invaluable thoughts, insightful suggestions and useful guidance throughout the thesis works My sincere appreciation also goes to the committee members for their propositions, valuable comments, and constructive suggestions, which were of substantial value to this study I would like to acknowledge faithfully professors of South Luzon State University (SLSU) and Thai Nguyen University (TNU) at DBA Program at Thai Nguyen University for their insightful lectures in different subjects that provide me knowledge and technique to develop a good research My sincere thanks are also extended to my friends for their meaningful discussion, hospitality and friendship Finally, I am profoundly grateful to my family: my parents and brother, who always encourage and help me in every situation They have been a great source of encouragement and sharing, enhancing my strength to overcome difficulties during my DBA program ii TABLE OF CONTENT Chapter I: INTRODUCTION ……………………………………………… 1.1 Background of the study ……………………………………………… 1.2 Statement of the problem ……………… …………………………… 1.3 Hypotheses …………………………………………………………… 1.4 Significance of the Study……………………….……………………… 1.5 Scope and limitation of the study……………………………………… 1.6 Definition of Terms ………………………………………………… Chapter II: REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE AND STUDIES …… 2.1 REVIEW OF RELATED STUDIES………………………………… 2.2 THEORETICAL AND CONCEPTUAL FRAMWORK……………… 16 2.2.1 Theoretical framework………………………………….…………… 16 2.2.1.1 Provincial Competitiveness Index (PCI) ………………………… 16 2.2.1.2 Foreign direct investment………….……………………………… 17 2.2.1.3 Economy…………………………………………………….…… 24 2.2.1.4 FDI in Vietnam…… ……………………………………… ….… 25 2.2.2 Conceptual Framework ……………………………………………… 28 Chapter III: DATA AND METHODOLOGY………………………………… 3.1 INTRODUCTION …………………………………………… 29 29 3.2 RESEARCH DESIGN ………………………………………………… 29 3.2.1 The research approach ……………………………………………… 29 3.2.1.1 Scientific beliefs ………………………………………………… 29 iii 3.2.1.2 Research strategies ……………………………………………… 30 3.2.2 The research approach and process design………………………… 31 3.3 DATA COLLECTION METHOD.…………………………………… 31 3.4 DATA COLLECTION PROCEDURE ……………………………… 32 3.5 DATA PROCESSING METHOD …………………………………… 32 3.6 ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK …………………………………… 43 3.7 CONCLUSION ………………………………………………………… 44 Chapter IV: PRESENTATION, ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION OF DATA ………………………………………………………………………… 45 4.1 FDI inflows in Hung Yen province ……………………………… 45 4.2 The impacts of FDI on Economy of Hung Yen province ………… … 50 4.2.1 Survey analysis …………………………………………………… 50 4.2.2 Summary ……………………………………………………… … 68 Chapter V: FINDINGS, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS … 74 5.1 Findings ……………………………………………………………… 74 5.2 Conclusions………………………………………… ……………… 75 5.3 Recommendations …………………………………… ………… … 75 References …………………………………………………………………… … 77 Appendix …………………………………………………………………… …… 85 iv ABSTRACT Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is often seen as an important catalyst for economic growth in developing countries It affects the economic growth of the host country by stimulating domestic investment, increasing human capital formation and facilitating technology transfer Regional Gross Domestic Product, Taxes Generation, Export and FDI Labor are often considered the indicators to evaluate the contribution of FDI on the economy of a province The main purpose of the study is to investigate impacts of FDI on the economy of Hung Yen, measured by four economic indicators, i.e Regional Gross Domestic Product, Taxes Generation, Export and FDI Labor The study uses annual data series for the period of 1998-2010 The relationships between FDI and the indicators are analyzed by using Distributed-Lag models The results of the study show positive and statistically insignificant relations between FDI inflows and the Regional Gross Domestic Product, Taxes Generation, Export, FDI Labor respectively in Hung Yen Policy recommendations are suggested in the light of the results obtained, regarding the FDI in the province v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam in the period 1988-2012 …………….26 Figure 2: Rate of the implemented FDI capita in Vietnam in the period 1988-2012… 27 Figure 3: Conceptual Framework……………………………………………………… 28 Figure 4: Analytical Framework ….…….44 Figure 5: PCI of Hung Yen province in the period of 2005-2012……………….….… 48 Figure 6: Impact of PCI on FDI inflows in Hung Yen province ……………….…… 51 Figure 7: The development trend of variables ………………… ……………….….….52 Figure 8: The result of the Normal Distribution test for residual in model (I)…….… 59 Figure 9: The result of the Normal Distribution test for residual in model (II) …… …60 Figure 10: The result of the Normal Distribution test for residual in model (III) … ….61 Figure 11: The result of the Normal Distribution test for residual in model (IV) ….….61 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Comparison of the component indicators of PCI of Hung Yen province to the highest score of the province in 2010 ………………………………….…………….…49 Table 2: Comparison of the component indicators of PCI of Hung Yen province to the highest score of the province in 2012 ………………………….…………………….…50 Table 3: Summary of ADF Unit Root Test Result……………………….… …………53 Table 4: Summary of PP Unit Root Test Result………………………….…………… 54 Table 5: The result of the model (I) estimation……………………………… ……….55 Table 6: The result of the model (II) estimation…………………… ……… ……… 56 Table 7: The result of the model (III) estimation……………………………… …… 57 Table 8: The result of the model (IV) estimation…………………… …… ……… 58 Table 9: The result of the Serial Correlation test in model (I)………………… …… 59 Table 10: The result of the Serial Correlation test in model (II)…… ………… …… 63 Table 11: The result of the Serial Correlation test in model (III)….….………… …… 63 Table 12: The result of the Serial Correlation test in model (IV)……… ….…… ……64 Table 13: The result of the Heteroskedasticity test in model (I)……………………….65 Table 14: The result of the Heteroskedasticity test in model (II)……………………….66 Table 15: The result of the Heteroskedasticity test in model (III)……………………….67 Table 16: The result of the Heteroskedasticity test in model (IV)……………………….68 Table 17: Summary the result of the OLS estimation……………………………………70 vii Chapter I: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background of the study Today, globalization is more and more increasingly recognized process and becomes an inevitable trend of development in human history When globalization and international economic integration take place more rapidly in both size and speed, competition becomes tougher in the world market Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is increasingly important for development of economy of nations It is claimed that FDI can create employment, increase technological development in the host country and improve the economic condition of the country in general FDI is a sign to evaluate the policy and economic outlook of a nation FDI is the motivation to make extensive changes in the development of international relations such as political, economic, diplomatic, etc Simultaneously, FDI becomes a sharp instrument for development and global integration, market extension, cost reduction and enhancement of competitive advantages of nations Townsend (2003) said the relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth is not so clear There are different views by researchers on the contributions of FDI to economic growth, based on theoretical and analytical findings Some scholars see FDI as a very important tool for economic growth especially in the less developed countries (LDCs), but others claim that the contribution of FDI to economic development is not as pronounced as most people believe, even some think FDI has no positive contribution to the economic growth of the host country For example, Nuzhat Falki (2009) examined the Impact of FDI on Economic Growth of Pakistan from 1980 to 2006 She concluded that FDI has negative statically insignificant relationship between GDP and FDI inflows in Pakistan in this period Pardeep (2000) founded that the increase in FDI inflows in South Asia were associated with a many-fold increase in the investment by national investors, suggesting that there exist linkage effects between FDI and GDP The impact of FDI on GDP growth is found to be negative prior to 1980, mildly positive for early eighties and strongly positive over the late eighties and nineties It can be seen that there has been no consensus opinion on FDI and economic growth 1.2 Statement of the problem In Vietnam, the important role of FDI has been acknowledged for the last 20 years Since the launch of market-oriented economic reforms in 1986, Vietnam has been among the fastest growing countries in Southeast Asia with the active participation of foreign investors in all fields of the economy Vietnamese government has quickly jointed the competition for foreign direct investment into regional and global markets by restructuring the domestic economy and opening up the economy to external trade and investment (Hoang Thi Thu, 2013) The FDI capital has been supporting provinces to restructure the economy towards industrialization and modernization, to create many new industries and products It also contributed to improving management capacity, increasing labor productivity, developing technology, expanding export markets, creating jobs, and improving living standards of workers However, in recent years, some problems, which related to FDI, occurred in Vietnam For example, Vedan company discharged the waste to the ThiVai River, over 100 golf course projects were licensed, capacity of cement plants increased rapidly to levels that exceed the domestic demand, etc Hung Yen is a delta province, located in the key economic zone of Northern Vietnam It has advantages of natural conditions and infrastructure After the Foreign Investment Law was issued (in December, 1987), Hung Yen has attracted a flow of FDI capital to some of its key industries, and this contributed significantly to the restructuring of the province economy The attraction and use of FDI capital not only contribute to economic development of the province, but also promote economic development of the whole key economic zone in Northern Vietnam Hung Yen’s economy has greatly transformed since the FDI activities were implemented Therefore, it is highly necessary to conduct assessment of the impact of FDI on the economy of Hung Yen province This assessment would be a good basis for the authority to issue appropriate policies on economic development of the province In this study, the relationship between FDI and the economy in the province will be discussed, and the contribution of FDI to growth will be investigated To perform this analysis scholarly opinions and suggestions will be discussed and empirical analysis on FDI will be carried out This study attempts to answer the follow questions: How does FDI effect on the existing status and flow of FDI in Hung Yen province from 1998 to 2010? 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Vung tau 291 26,338,986,818 7,315,323,140 Ha Noi 2461 21,207,716,809 7,627,776,543 Dong Nai 1106 20,124,421,541 7,870,916,725 Binh Duong Ha Tinh 2252 46 17,551,955,734 8,447,113,000 6,460,833,979 2,840,717,630 88 Hai Phong 371 7,358,773,614 2,477,859,148 Thanh Hoa 44 7,150,235,144 518,958,987 Phu Yen 57 6,531,204,438 1,473,136,655 10 Hai Duong 274 5,377,129,794 1,615,151,490 11 Quang Nam 79 4,984,233,719 1,229,309,806 12 Quang Ninh 97 4,199,339,554 1,155,757,220 13 Bac Ninh 297 4,164,325,552 892,687,432 14 Quang Ngai 23 3,814,218,479 637,757,449 15 Đa Nang 239 3,627,576,036 1,655,201,737 16 Long An 448 3,544,533,856 1,423,807,201 17 Kien Giang 32 3,050,839,976 1,437,599,850 18 Gas 49 2,753,691,815 2,386,691,815 19 Vinh Phuc 148 2,466,927,298 723,249,269 20 Hung Yen 240 2,119,413,392 796,732,175 21 Thua Thien-Hue 67 1,948,304,938 484,299,035 22 Tay Ninh 200 1,627,481,286 999,278,795 23 Bac Giang 100 1,587,844,697 1,144,323,320 24 Nghe An 33 1,543,728,529 249,273,308 25 Bình Thuận 100 1,473,442,568 430,118,900 26 Tien Giang 51 1,072,713,528 388,139,732 27 Khanh Hoa 88 1,030,227,341 313,966,666 28 Ninh Binh 27 938,082,878 258,006,594 29 Lao Cai 35 855,286,322 281,895,857 30 Can Tho 59 801,090,186 722,856,072 31 Ca Mau 780,600,000 6,500,000 32 33 34 Ninh Thuan Binh Phuoc Binh Đinh 29 103 52 775,641,566 765,418,000 254,819,678 449,214,380 89 693,010,000 288,098,000 35 Hau Giang 12 680,266,666 395,466,666 36 Ha Nam 55 508,467,490 168,593,165 37 Lam Đong 114 497,336,064 236,287,792 38 Phu Tho 79 454,902,066 255,615,205 39 Hoa Binh 30 317,660,391 103,500,157 40 Ben Tre 31 255,491,518 157,319,927 41 Thai Binh 32 251,262,206 87,684,582 42 Nam Đinh 41 249,273,579 153,709,322 43 Lang Son 30 192,503,586 130,340,314 44 Thai Nguyen 32 148,414,337 102,541,405 45 Đac Lac 146,368,750 11,168,750 46 Tra Vinh 31 130,263,596 76,640,596 47 Vinh Long 23 127,774,240 85,764,240 48 An Giang 20 123,590,190 58,951,817 49 Tuyen Quang 120,602,026 24,479,630 50 Son La 10 116,379,684 16,072,000 51 Yen Bai 19 99,976,995 65,769,111 52 Bac Lieu 17 89,175,370 71,919,411 53 Gia Lai 12 85,651,616 21,810,000 54 Kon Tum 71,950,000 71,950,000 55 Quang Tri 16 67,689,500 26,217,100 56 Đong Thap 16 46,830,537 40,970,537 57 Quang Binh 34,783,800 15,213,800 58 Cao Bang 14 34,625,000 29,200,000 59 Soc Trang 10 30,043,000 16,763,000 60 61 Đac Nong Bac Can 19,659,000 9,051,770 90 17,905,667 62 Ha Giang 63 Lai Chau 91 8,437,667 13,306,886 9,313,012 4,001,136 3,001,136 CURRICULUM VITAE I Personal Information Name: Pham Thi Tuyet Nhung Birthday: May 23, 1971 Birthplace: Hung Yen province Nationality: Vietnam Sex/ marriage status:Female/ marriage Contact address:  Current residence  Phone: o Mobile  No.22/1002 Lang street – Hanoi- Vietnam 09-86-651-934 nbibach@yahoo.com.vn Email address: II Educational Qualification Institution Hanoi National University Date from - Date to Degree(s) or Diploma(s) obtained: 2000-2002 Degree of Master of Mathematics 1993 -1995 Degree of Bachelor of Information and Education Hanoi National University Education Hanoi National University Technology 1988 -1992 Degree of Bachelor of Mathematics Education 92 III Experiences Year Employed: 20 Position: Lecturer Agency Name and Address: University of Labor and Social Affairs (ULSA), No 43, Tran Duy Hung street- Hanoi- Vietnam 93 ... Total of employees working in the FDI enterprises The FDI Labor is one of the economic indicators to evaluate the contribution of FDI inflows on the economy Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) – Investment. .. on FDI inflows in Hung Yen province;  To assess the contribution of FDI to the economy in Hung Yen province by assessing the impacts of FDI on fours economic indicators: + Regional Gross Domestic... indicators of PCI of Hung Yen province to the highest score of the province in 2010 ………………………………….…………….…49 Table 2: Comparison of the component indicators of PCI of Hung Yen province to the highest