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Cung cấp tài liệu bổ ích về Marketing bằng tiếng anh. Inside InformationMaking Sense of Marketing DataD.V.L. SMITH & J.H. FLETCHERJOHN WILEY & SONS, LTDChichester · New York · Weinheim · Brisbane · Singapore · Toronto Copyright © 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd Baffins Lane, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 1UD, England National 01243 779777 International (+44) 1243 779777 e-mail (for orders and customer service enquiries): cs-books@wiley.co.uk Visit our Home Page on http://www.wiley.co.uk or http://www.wiley.com All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, including uploading, downloading, printing, recording or otherwise, except as permitted under the fair dealing provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of a licence issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London, W1P 9HE, UK, without the permission in writing of the Publisher. Requests to the Publisher should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Baffins Lane, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 1UD, UK or e-mailed to permreq@wiley.co.uk or faxed to (+44) 1243 770571. Other Wiley Editorial Offices John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158-0012, USA WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH Pappelallee 3, D-69469 Weinheim, Germany John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd, 33 Park Road, Milton, Queensland 4064, Australia John Wiley & Sons (Canada) Ltd, 22 Worcester Road Rexdale, Ontario, M9W 1L1, Canada John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte Ltd, 2 Clementi Loop #02-01, Jin Xing Distripark, Singapore 129809 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library This title is also available in print as ISBN 0 471 49543 3 (Cloth) Typeset in 11/15 pt Garamond by Mayhew Typesetting, Rhayader, Powys ContentsForeword by Andrew McIntosh viiPreface xAcknowledgements xii1 Mastering Twenty-First-Century Information 1The information paradox 2Twenty-®rst-century information craft skills 4A new holistic way of evaluating information 7About this book 82 Acquiring Effective Information Habits 11The seven pillars of information wisdom 13Understanding the evidence jigsaw 24Developing a personal information strategy 28Robustness checks 33Getting to the storyline 42Acting on information 483 A Primer in Qualitative Evidence 51Softer evidence here to stay 53Making `faith' decisions 54The quality of qualitative research 63Understanding the overall analysis approach adopted 74Making judgements and decisions from qualitative evidence 79The safety of qualitative evidence for decision-making: aseven-point checklist 834 Understanding Survey Data 85A recap on the key characteristics of survey-based research 87Seven key checks 935 Designing Actionable Research 145Step 1: is formal research the answer? 146Step 2: de®ning and re®ning the problem 149Step 3: start at the end: clarify the decisions to be made 153Step 4: pinpointing the information gaps 158Step 5: developing a ®tness-to-purpose design 158Step 6: deciding on the research design 165Step 7: choosing an agency 167Appendix A: An overview of the market research `toolbag' 168Appendix B: A ®ve-step guide to writing a market researchbrief 1716 Holistic Data Analysis 177The key principles of holistic data analysis 178The main techniques underpinning holistic data analysis 180Putting it all together: holistic analysis summarised 183Ten-step guide to holistic data analysis 1857 Information-Based Decision-Making 219Decision-making cultures 221Organisational decision mine®elds 222Why we ®nd decision-making dif®cult 226Applying information to decision-making 229Decision-making frameworks 232Implementing marketing decisions 240Good practice design and implementation guide 247Bibliography 253Index 255viContentsForewordEverybody knows how to distrust statistical information ± `lies, damnlies, and statistics'. And a few people even know how misleading popularconceptions of probability are, to the extent that some can give thecounter-intuitive, but correct, answer to the question `what is theprobability that two children in a class of 30 will share a birthday?' ± amuch higher probability than most people think.But how many of the hundreds of thousands of people who usesurvey data in their work or lives, let alone how many who read survey®ndings in the media, have had any serious training in their analysis orinterpretation? It is precisely because there is much more to theunderstanding and use of survey research than statistical formulae, thatthis book is necessary.A very public example in recent years has been the debate on the useof focus groups by political parties in the formulation and presentation ofpolicy. This raises two kinds of issue, each addressed by Smith andFletcher in this challenging book.First, the issue addressed by Chapter three of how qualitative researchis carried out, when it is appropriate (and when not), and what pre-cautions should be taken in the interpretation of qualitative evidence.Historically, most qualitative research has been widely ± even mainly ±used as part of the problem de®nition stage of a research project. Focusgroups, or as they used to be called, discussion groups, were used to testhow comprehensible ideas, language, or images, would be if used in aquantitative survey. Even motivation research, originally conducted bypsychologists seeking to explore unexpressed motivation rather thanconscious attitudes or behaviour, would commonly be reported as part ofa study embracing both qualitative and quantitative data.But the public image of focus groups, mainly triggered by politicalparties and their spin-doctors, has been as a short-cut to understanding ofpublic opinion, not complementing but replacing the measurement ofopinion and behaviour on political issues, among signi®cant groups ofthe population, which can only be achieved by quantitative surveys. It isnot just the media who over-simplify an issue of public concern: it is clearfrom their own accounts that those advising political parties in Britainhave indeed misused focus groups, and neglected the proper use ofsurvey research.Dick Morris, President Clinton's spin-doctor, did not rely on focusgroups to give his tactical advice to the presidential candidate in 1992, butcommissioned 800 telephone interviews every night during the campaign.Not cheap, but effective. Spin-doctors to British political parties would dowell to follow that example. Smith and Fletcher help to explain why.Second, the issue of how research ®ndings are to be used in makingbusiness decisions, which has dominated business texts on marketingresearch since Green and Tull. Again, the focus group controversyilluminates the issue. Too often, public reporting of research for politicalparties, often fed by leaks of internal documents, gives the impressionthat parties wish to use research, not to guide them in the presentation ofpolicy, but as a replacement for political, social and economic analysis inthe formulation of policy itself.Perhaps they do: perhaps popularism without principle is gainingground in our political life. But as a politician, I profoundly hope not;and as a survey researcher, both in business and in public policy, Ideplore such distortion of our discipline. Survey research should assist,but never seek to usurp, the role of decision-making based on properbusiness or policy objectives, and in possession of all the relevant facts.Again, this book provides practical illustrations of the dangers ofmisinterpretation of research ®ndings ± what the authors call the `craftskills necessary to scan, gut, and action information'. Textbooks ofmarket research already expound many of the rules of interpretation ±caution when dealing with small sub-samples, re-percentaging whenbases change (or better, avoiding changing bases), and so on: the authorsrightly rehearse these rules. But in emphasising the importance ofinductive reasoning, in what they call `the seven pillars of informationwisdom' they address issues which are well known to those experiencedin the craft, but which have not before, to my knowledge, been suf®-ciently expounded in print.viiiForewordIt has always seemed to me that there are two dif®cult problems forthose who ®nd themselves required to commission research, or to makebusiness or policy decisions using research ®ndings.The ®rst is to remember that commissioning original research is a lastresort. If effective ways can be found to use business or of®cial statistics,or to re-examine or re-interpret existing research data, then that will bepreferable to commissioning original research, which runs the twin risksof costing more than the bene®t to be derived from it, or of being carriedout on an inadequate budget, with the potential for untrustworthy results.Second ± and there are constant reminders of this in the book ±survey research essentially provides the customer viewpoint, to counter-balance the producer bias which is inherent in business life. It does notmean that the customer is always right.To give merely one example: for many years, economic and businessresearchers both in the UK and in the US devoted considerable resourcesand great skill to analysing the validity and reliability of anticipations dataas a tool for forecasting consumer purchases. They took into account theobvious psychological truth that buying intentions will become less ®rmand actionable the further into the future they go; they allowed for the factthat large purchases, such as home or cars, are more likely to be anticipatedthan purchases of, for example, small electrical appliances; they even,eventually, caught up with the fact that anticipation of replacementpurchases will follow a different pattern from ®rst-time buying.But what they failed to do was to recognise that other factors, them-selves capable of forecasting, but necessarily unknown to the consumer atthe time of interview, would in¯uence consumer buying intentions.Without the best available forecast of trends in in¯ation, in consumerdisposable income, in product development and pricing, anticipations dataare almost certain to be misleading. Here too is a lesson from marketresearch for public policy, and indeed for political polling.If this book can help users of survey research, whether they be infor-mation professionals, research practitioners, or more generally people inbusiness or public life, with the insights necessary to understand andbene®t from the skills of the researcher, it will have well justi®ed itself. Itis a worthy objective.Andrew McIntoshixForewordPrefaceIn this book the authors argue that we need to develop a new infor-mation paradigm that provides data users and suppliers with the freshinsights and practical hands-on information skills and competenciesneeded to cope with the `information explosion'. We are aware that theterm paradigm is a much overused word. But we believe that informationprofessionals ± most notably market researchers ± urgently need to putinto the public domain a clear set of guiding principles about howthey are currently tackling the world of marketing information in thetwenty-®rst century. The authors ± both of whom are practising marketresearchers ± believe that this issue places the market research industry ata crossroads. The industry could stumble on pretending that many of theprinciples and concepts spelt out in existing market research textbooksstill apply to the way they now operate. Or, as we believe, they couldseize this golden opportunity to articulate the way that New MarketResearch really `works'. This would explain how, increasingly, we arerelying on more holistic analysis techniques than has been the case in thepast. In this new Millennium market researchers must learn how toassemble a jigsaw of imperfect evidence using the skills of the `bricoleur',rather than falling back on some of the more methodologically pure, butnow rather stale, approaches of the past. In short, we outline whatmarket research practitioners have been doing behind closed doors ± butnot articulating to the world ± for a number of years. So we are notinventing new analytic techniques for the ®rst time. But the ideas thisbook contains are new in the sense that this is one of the ®rst books thatmake explicit what may be termed the hidden market research practi-tioners' paradigm. We believe that unless market research practitioners,and other information specialists, now start to articulate and makeexplicit many of their day-to-day data analysis practices, then we will nothave a platform upon which to realistically debate the techniques beingused to make sense of marketing data. It is a debate that is much neededif we are to develop the appropriate training for prospective informationprofessionals.xiPrefaceAcknowledgementsThe authors wish to thank Jo Smith and Andy Dexter for their helpfulcomments on the structure of the book. In addition, we are indebted toPhyllis Vangelder for her contribution to the editing process. But we aremost indebted to Chris Rooke and Sandra Mead for the professionalismthat they have demonstrated in typing various drafts of the book. Sandraneeds a special mention for all the dedication shown in painstakinglyworking on the ®nal stages of the preparation of the book.[...]... business information world is the emergence of a wide range of less than `perfect' information drawn from a myriad of comparatively unknown information sources. In the past, decision-makers in the world of marketing havebeen able to rely on a small number of reasonably methodologicallysound sources of marketing data. But today, increasingly, we are facedwith more information, much of which will have a question... overwhelmed by this store of information with no means of structuring or sorting it.Thinking outside the shoebox means screening incoming information for its relevance before we start accumulating piles of data in whichuseful information is indistinguishable from useless information. The aim of the screening process is for each piece of incoming information to beallocated to one of the following categories:·read... day-to-day practice of busy marketing research practitioners. This is disappointing because webelieve that it is important for today's data analyst to have a perspectiveon some of the fundamental aspects of the way we make sense of marketing information. So, at the risk of high vulgarisation and trivialisa-tion of a vast topic, below we have outlined seven key insights about thenature of reasoning... in the far more complex world of business and marketing, the best that the data analyst can hope to achieve is the reduction of uncertainty in our judgement and decision -making. A new holistic way of evaluating information Thus, in this book we seek to help individuals working in the world of marketing, to develop more con®dence about using a range of `hard' and`soft' techniques, in an holistic... over-simplistication of truth. This is an increasingly rele-vant issue. In today's highly competitive business environment thereis increasing emphasis on success. As more and more people attendmedia courses on the `art' of winning the argument ± including howto `spin' their data ± the more dif®cult it becomes for the analyst to37 Inside Information Inside Information Making Sense of Marketing. .. usurp, the role of decision -making based on properbusiness or policy objectives, and in possession of all the relevant facts.Again, this book provides practical illustrations of the dangers of misinterpretation of research ®ndings ± what the authors call the `craftskills necessary to scan, gut, and action information& apos;. Textbooks of market research already expound many of the rules of interpretation... providing the burgeoningnumber of business class passengers with a range of added valueservices.5. The professionalism check. The next check of the robustness ± or`truth' ± of a piece of information is to establish just how muchprecision and attention to detail has been demonstrated by those whoprovided the information. One tell-tale guide to determining whetheran item of information is robust is... successful use of marketing information is knowing how toweigh incoming explicit knowledge against existing implicit knowledge.This lies at the heart of the successful holistic analysis of marketing data.Insight 5: data are dumb: beliefs are blindThis insight reminds us that data alone, without the organising bene®t of prior belief and theory, are of limited value. But equally, our inter-pretation of the... the motives of the provider of information, as we have already indicated, is not a bad thing.However, it also carries the attendant danger of us lurching too farthe other way and always presupposing an ulterior motive whennone exists.9. Norms and benchmarks. Another way of establishing the robustness of a piece of information is to see where it ®ts into the wider, normativecontext of what you... arrival of concepts such as Knowledge Manage-ment is helping to keep us on top of this new array of marketing information. But this ± and the hope that the computer technology willcome to our rescue and help us better sort, classify and even `interpret' information ± only goes so far. At the heart of the challenge facing us isrecognition that we need a new set of twenty-®rst-century information competencies . Inside InformationMaking Sense of Marketing DataD.V.L. SMITH & J.H. FLETCHERJOHN WILEY & SONS, LTDChichester ·. to make sense of marketing data. It is a debate that is much neededif we are to develop the appropriate training for prospective informationprofessionals.xiPrefaceAcknowledgementsThe
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