[...]... risk that the old structures elsewhere in the region will act to constrain the transition movements Economic and Political Transition in Comparative Perspective The political vacuum at the start of the Arab Spring brings to mind similar periods in other regions-southern Europe in the 1970s, Latin America in the 1980s, eastern Europe in the 1990s- where enormous opportunities for rent seeking, the absence... created There are large intergenerational inequities in the distribution of the benefits of economic growth, in favor of a group of public sector employees, elites, and other rent seekers to the disadvantage of the large youth population in the region The size of the youth base is unprecedented Almost two -thirds of the population in the Arab world is under the age of 30 Young people are demanding jobs, economic. .. ascertained The fourth economic transition is in the approach to the rest of the world No successful emerging economy has progressed far without taking advantage of the opportunities provided by global markets and the services provided by global institutions In some Arab countries, there is a suspicion of the international financial institutions because of the validation and support they provided to the old... liberal economic reforms that, under the old regimes, served to benefit only a few well-connected private groups The diagnosis of what is needed in terms of an economic transition is one of eliminating elite capture -the shaping of rules of the game and institutions of the state for the benefit of a few- rather than of a need for fundamental reform of the economic model In this, the Arab economic transitions. .. we elaborate on the needed transitions based on experiences with transitions in other international contexts as well as the conditions facing the economies in the region Given the fluidity of the situation in the early stages of transition1 it is clear that it would be folly to be overly prescriptive In fact, experience of other international economic transitions suggests that much of the impact of reforms... neighborhood will affect the ongoing transitions Arab economies are less well integrated into the global economy or their regional neighborhood than other areas of the world are Nonoil Arab exports are less than 1 percent of global trade Intraregional trade is among the lowest in the world Yet there is a commonality to Arab history1 language1 and culture so it is reasonable to suppose that there is a regional... planning, and patrimony was put in place That model relied too much on rents rather than production, and on cronyism rather than inclusion When Arab countries reformed- as they did in the 1990s- they did so half-heartedly and in ways that enriched a small ruling elite These failures have tainted the very idea of market transitions in Arab states Support 3 A F T E R T K E S PRIN G for a strong economic. .. long as they did not threaten the regime itself At the same time, they attempted to increase salaries for civil servants or members of the military or food, fueC and housing subsidies For decades, citizens willingly accepted this authoritarian bargain It is hard to imagine now, but in the 1960s and 1970s the economies of the Middle East were among the fastest growing in the world - alongside the East... necessary, they may not be sufficient and could even undermine confidence if not accompanied by growth-enhancing reforms At the end of the day, the economic transition will be about rebuilding the state and improving its institutions- redefining its role, improving voice and accountability, embracing inclusion, and making government bureaucracy more effective Third, no reform can be sustained without a guiding... when applied to Arab economies By being "militant" about this pragmatism, Arab policy leaders might succeed in developing a sense of national initiative and pride, 16 Copyrighted material IN T RODUCTION rather than a feeling that they are asking their countries to follow a particular "foreign" ideology or influence NEW TRANSITIONS, N EW DIRECTIONS: OU TLINE OF THE VOLUME In the remainder of this book . vacuum at the start of the Arab Spr i ng br ings to mind similar periods in other regions-southern Europe in the 1970s, Latin America in the 1980s, east ern Europe in the 1990s-. During our discussions, it became clear that the challenges fac- ing the economies of the Arab world- and the economic causes of the Arab Spring-are difficult to segment into. of Congress Catalog ing - in -Publication Data Aft er the spring: economic transitions in t he Arab world I Magdi Am in . . . [et al .]. p. em. In cl udes index. ISBN 978 -0- 1.9 - 992492 -