[...]... silver paint is revealed to be the same as the unpainted number on the ticket Do you think the probability of at least one winner in the Andorran Lottery is significantly different from the probability of at least one winner in Spain? What is your estimate of the probability of a win occurring in each of the lotteries? Question 4 A lotto problem (§4.2.3) In each drawing of Lotto 6/45, six distinct numbers... average, it rained 7 of 30 days in June, with no definite pattern for which particular days it rained Assuming things do not change, then the probability of rain on June 15 7 the following year has the numerical value 30 In this case, the past relative frequency of rainy days in June is used to assign a numerical value to the probability of rain on a given day in June during the following year Put another... paid to collecting exercises that appeal to the understanding and creativity of the reader rather than requiring the reader to plug numbers into formulas Several of the examples and exercises in this book are inspired by material from the website of Chance News.” This website contains a wealth of material on probability and statistics Finally, the text is enlivened with cartoons combining chance and humor,... Part One has remained largely the same, but Part Two has been changed and expanded The second part has been made self-contained for a first course in probability by adding more explanations and examples in almost every chapter Also, the second part has been expanded by adding an introductory chapter on Markov chains, particularly suited for students in computer science and engineering In the same style... than three, in order to have about an equal chance of rolling at least one six Modern probability theory Although probability theory was initially the product of questions posed by gamblers about their odds in the various games of chance, in its modern form, it has far outgrown any boundaries associated with the gaming room These days, probability theory plays an increasingly greater roll in many fields... Chapters 1–6 These chapters introduce the reader to the basic concepts of probability theory by using motivating examples to illustrate the concepts A “feel for probabilities” is first developed through examples that endeavor to bring out the essence of probability in a compelling way Simulation is a perfect aid in this undertaking of providing insight into the hows and whys of probability theory We will... dynamically in time in a random environment PART ONE Probability in action 1 Probability questions In this chapter, we provide a number of probability problems that challenge the reader to test his or her feeling for probabilities As stated in the Introduction, it is possible to fall wide of the mark when using intuitive reasoning to calculate a probability, or to estimate the order of magnitude of a probability. .. approach of interweaving intuition and formal mathematics This book, about probability as it applies to our daily lives, is written very much in the same spirit It introduces the reader to the world of probability in an informal way It is not written in a theorem-proof style Instead, it aims to teach the novice the concepts of probability through the use of motivating and insightful examples In the book,... one-semester course in a wide range of disciplines ranging from social sciences to engineering Also, it is an ideal book to use as a supplementary text in more mathematical treatments of probability ix x Preface The book distinguishes itself from other introductory probability texts by its emphasis on why probability works and how to apply it Simulation in interaction with theory is the perfect instrument to... Markov chains is taught by presenting interesting and realistic examples A solutions manual containing solutions to all of the exercises was prepared for instructors Finally, educational software supporting this book can be freely downloaded from http://staff.feweb.vu.nl/tijms Introduction It is difficult to say who had a greater impact on the mobility of goods in the preindustrial economy: the inventor . applied probability and stochastic optimization for international journals, including Applied Probability and Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences. Understanding Probability Chance. through examples that endeavor to bring out the essence of probability in a compelling way. Simulation is a perfect aid in this undertaking of providing insight into the hows and whys of probability theory expanded by adding an introductory chapter on Markov chains, particularly suited for students in com- puter science and engineering. In the same style as the other chapters, the topic of Markov chains