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OECD EconomicSurveys Russian Federation Volume2006/17 OECDEconomicSurveysRUSSIANFEDERATION RussianFederation SpecialFeatures: EnsuringSoundMacroeconomicManagement ImprovingtheQualityofPublicAdministration IncreasingtheEffectivenessofInnovationPolicy ReformingHealthcare Volume2006/17–November2006 ISSN0376-6438 2006SUBSCRIPTION (18ISSUES) Volume2006/17–November2006 www.oecd.org ISBN92-64-02995-8 102006171P -:HSTCQE=UW^^Z]: EconomicSurveys Mostrecenteditions Australia,July2006 Austria,July2005 Belgium,May2005 Canada,June2006 CzechRepublic,June2006 Denmark,May2006 Euroarea,September2005 Finland,May2006 France,September2005 Germany,May2006 Greece,September2005 Hungary,July2005 Iceland,August2006 Ireland,March2006 Italy,November2005 Japan,July2006 Korea,November2005 Luxembourg,July2006 Mexico,November2005 Netherlands,December2005 NewZealand,September2005 Norway,October2005 Poland,June2006 Portugal,April2006 SlovakRepublic,September2005 Spain,April2005 Sweden,August2005 Switzerland,January2006 Turkey,October2006 UnitedKingdom,November2005 UnitedStates,December2005 Non-MemberEconomies Mostrecenteditions BalticStates,February2000 Brazil,November2006 Bulgaria,April1999 Chile,November2005 China,September2005 Romania,October2002 RussianFederation,November2006 Slovenia,May1997 FederalRepublicofYugoslavia, January2003 Subscriberstothisprintedperiodicalareentitledtofreeonlineaccess.Ifyoudonotyethaveonlineaccess viayourinstitution’snetwork,contactyourlibrarianor,ifyousubscribepersonally,sendane-mailto: SourceOECD@oecd.org November2006 ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OECD Economic Surveys Russian Federation 2006 ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 30 democracies work together to address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an ageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies. The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Commission of the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD. OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisation’s statistics gathering and research on economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines and standards agreed by its members. Also available in French © OECD 2006 No reproduction, copy, transmission or translation of this publication may be made without written permission. Applications should be sent to OECD Publishing: rights@oecd.org or by fax (33-1) 45 24 99 30. Permission to photocopy a portion of this work should be addressed to the Centre français d'exploitation du droit de copie (CFC), 20, rue des Grands-Augustins, 75006 Paris, France, fax (33-1) 46 34 67 19, contact@cfcopies.com or (for US only) to Copyright Clearance Center (CCC), 222 Rosewood Drive Danvers, MA 01923, USA, fax (978) 646 8600, info@copyright.com. This work is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Organisation or of the governments of its member countries. TABLE OF CONTENTS OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: RUSSIAN FEDERATION – ISBN 92-64-02995-8 – © OECD 2006 3 Table of contents Executive summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Assessment and recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Chapter 1. Sustaining growth in the Russian Federation: key challenges . . . . . . . . . . 21 Strong growth driven largely by transitory factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 A mixed economic policy record . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 The challenges ahead: sound macro policy and maintaining high growth potential . . 40 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Annex 1.A1. Macroeconomic performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Annex 1.A2. Progress with respect to selected structural reforms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Annex 1.A3. The Russian agricultural sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 Chapter 2. Ensuring sound macroeconomic management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 The real exchange rate, trade performance and competitiveness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Curbing persistently high inflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 Fiscal policy: the principal tool for macroeconomic management. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 Annex 2.A1. External accounts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 Annex 2.A2. Decomposition of the trade balance variation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 Chapter 3. Improving the quality of public administration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 The challenge of administrative reform . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 Public administration reform since 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 The new administrative reform Concept and the future of public administration reform . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 Chapter 4. Raising the effectiveness of innovation policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 Innovation activity and performance: the Russian paradox . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 Getting framework conditions and institutions right. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158 Designing efficient innovation-promotion initiatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175 Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178 TABLE OF CONTENTS OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: RUSSIAN FEDERATION – ISBN 92-64-02995-8 – © OECD 2006 4 Annex 4.A1. Competition and efficiency in Russian industrial sectors. . . . . . . . . . . 182 Annex 4.A2. Concentration of suppliers and clients . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184 Chapter 5. Reforming healthcare. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187 The context of healthcare reform . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188 The need for healthcare reform. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194 The direction of healthcare reform . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214 Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217 Annex 5.A1. The Guaranteed Package Programme. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223 Boxes 1.1. The Investment Fund. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 1.2. The law on Special Economic Zones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 2.1. “Dutch disease”. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .82 2.2. Balassa-Samuelson effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 2.3. The Stabilisation Fund of the Russian Federation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 2.4. Recommendations on macroeconomic policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 3.1. The “Weberian” model of public bureaucracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 3.2. Is the Russian civil service too big? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 3.3. Civil service pay in Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 3.4. The “New Public Management” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 3.5. Recommendations on the reform of public administration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 4.1. The Russian ICT sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154 4.2. Targeted innovation initiatives. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168 4.3. Recommendations on innovation policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174 5.1. Recommendations on healthcare reform. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213 Tables 1.1. Basic economic indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 1.2. Command GDP and the terms of trade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 1.3. Contributions to value-added growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 1.4. Planned budgetary expenditure for Priority National Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 1.5. Major state acquisitions, 2004-06. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 1.A1.1. Exports of goods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 1.A1.2. Imports of goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 1.A2.1. Selected balance-sheet indicators of the Russian banking sector . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 1.A2.2. Objectives of financial markets development strategy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 1.A3.1. Agricultural production growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 2.1. Balance of payments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 2.2. Production in the manufacturing sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 2.3. Structure of employment by sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 2.4. Fiscal stance (General government balance) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 TABLE OF CONTENTS OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: RUSSIAN FEDERATION – ISBN 92-64-02995-8 – © OECD 2006 5 2.5. The consolidated budget, excluding off-budgetary funds (% GDP) . . . . . . . . . . . 95 2.6. Evolution of public debt (% GDP) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 2.7. Medium-term budget plan (Federal budget, % GDP) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 2.A1.1. Balance of payments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 2.A2.1. Parameters used in the trade balance decomposition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 3.1. Governance indicators, 1996-2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 3.2. Administrative reform indicators and targets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 4.1. Organisational transformation of the state science sector, 2005–10 . . . . . . . . . . 165 4.A1.1. Efficiency Regressions. TFP growth – Jorgenson method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 5.1. Selected health and demographic indicators. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188 5.2. Structure of healthcare provision by level of government, 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194 5.3. Indicators of resource use in the health sector, 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196 5.4. Priority National Project “Health” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201 Figures 1.1. Contributions to GDP growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 1.2. Income, consumption and wages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 1.3. Increase of export revenues by commodities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 1.4. Gross fixed capital formation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 1.5. Investment growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 1.6. Crude oil output and exports, 2003-06 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 1.7. Contributions to CPI inflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 1.8. Decomposition of GDP growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 1.9. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy at different ages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 1.A1.1. Growth in GDP per capita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 1.A1.2. Change in regulated energy tariffs and other prices, 1997-2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 1.A1.3. Unemployment and poverty rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 1.A1.4. Changes in poverty rate and growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 1.A1.5. Structure of exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53 1.A1.6. Demographic trends, 1990-2026 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 1.A1.7. Labour force participation rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 2.1. Real effective exchange rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 2.2. Productivity and labour cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 2.3. Urals export price, terms of trade and REER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 2.4. Private sector borrowing and capital flight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 2.5. Relative productivity and price level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 2.6. Cumulative variation of the total balance (TB) of goods and services . . . . . . . . . 83 2.7. Wages and employment adjustment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 2.8. Decomposition of real exchange rate appreciation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 2.9. Labour productivity index by sector and relative prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 2.10. Liquidity absorption and the role of fiscal sterilisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 2.11. Money supply growth, core inflation and level of monetisation of GDP . . . . . . . 89 2.12. De-dollarisation and rouble-dollar exchange rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 2.13. Nominal interest rates and inflation rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 2.14. Real credit growth and real lending rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 2.15. Level of monetisation in Russia and other emerging economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 2.16. Growth of net foreign assets and of the Stabilisation Fund . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 TABLE OF CONTENTS OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: RUSSIAN FEDERATION – ISBN 92-64-02995-8 – © OECD 2006 6 3.1. Evolution of real wages in public administration, 1998-2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 4.1. Gross domestic expenditures on R&D, 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 4.2. R&D expenditures breakdown, 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 4.3. Gross R&D expenditures and R&D personnel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 4.4. Innovating enterprises as a percentage of all industrial enterprises . . . . . . . . . 152 4.5. Innovating enterprises and expenditures on technological innovation by economic activity in industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 4.6. Expenditure on technological innovation in industry by innovative activity . . . 153 4.7. Share of high and medium high-technology in manufacturing exports to OECD countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 4.8. European patent applications and ICT-related patents, 2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 4.9. Science and engineering articles, 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 4.10. Russian higher education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 4.11. Herfindahl-Hirschmann concentration indexes, 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161 4.A2.1. Concentration indicator by sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184 4.A2.2. Breakdown of the concentration indicator by size of firms in the manufacturing sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185 5.1. Health care spending . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190 5.2. Financing public healthcare in the Russian Federation, 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 5.3. Real public and private health expenditure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195 5.4. Methods of paying for outpatient care through regional OMS funds, 2004 . . . . 200 5.5. Methods of paying for inpatient care through regional OMS funds, 2004 . . . . . 200 This Survey was prepared in the Economics Department by William Tompson and Christian Gianella, under the supervision of Andreas Wörgötter. Substantial contributions were provided by the following individuals: Evgueniya Bessonova (competition), Alexander Chulok (IPR), Grigorii Degtyarev (pension reform), Vladimir Gimpel’son (labour markets), Evsei Gurvich (exchange- rate policy), Tatiana Klyachko (higher education) Sergei Shishkin (healthcare), Andrei E. Sizov (agriculture), Andrei A. Sizov (the ICT sector), Laryssa Smyrnich (labour markets), and Eva Thiel (financial market development). The enterprise survey on competition was conducted by the Laboratory for Conjunctural Surveys of the Institute for the Economy in Transition, under the direction of Sergei Tsukhlo. Technical assistance was provided by Corinne Chanteloup and secretarial assistance by Susan Gascard, Sheila McNally and Sylvie Ricordeau. The Survey of Russian Federation was discussed at a meeting of the Economic and Development Review Committee on 25 September 2006. The Survey is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. BASIC STATISTICS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (2005, unless otherwise noted) THE LAND Area (thousand sq. km) 17 098 Agricultural area (thousand sq. km) 2 223 THE PEOPLE Population (millions, end-year) 142.8 Inhabitants per sq. km. (end-year) 8.3 Average annual population growth (per cent, 1995-2005) –0.4 Employment (millions) 66.9 By sector (per cent of total) State and municipal enterprises and organisations 34.6 Private sector 53.4 Mixed form of ownership 12.0 By branch (per cent of total) Industry 21.8 Agriculture and forestry 10.8 Construction 7.3 Services 60.1 Unemployment rate (per cent of labour force, end-year) 7.5 Inhabitants in major cities (millions) Moscow 8.3 St. Petersburg 4.6 Novosibirsk 1.4 Nizhnii Novgorod 1.3 GOVERNMENT/ADMINISTRATION Bicameral Parliamentary system (The Federal Assembly) Council of the Federation (upper house) 176 seats State Duma (lower house) 450 seats Number of registered political groups in the State Duma 5 Regional government Subjects of the Federation, of which: 88 Republics 21 Krais (territories) 7 Oblasts (regions) 48 Autonomous oblast 1 Autonomous okrugs (areas) 9 City of Moscow City of St. Petersburg PRODUCTION GDP (RUB billion, current prices) 21 598 GDP per capita (USD, market exchange rate) 5 332 PUBLIC FINANCE Consolidated budget revenue (per cent of GDP) 35.2 Consolidated budget expenditure (per cent of GDP) 27.5 Domestic public debt (per cent of GDP, end-year) 3.9 FOREIGN TRADE AND FINANCE Exports of goods and services (USD billion) 268.1 Imports of goods and services (USD billion) 164.7 Central bank gross foreign exchange reserves (USD billion, end-year) 182.2 Gross external public debt (per cent of GDP, end-year) 10.8 THE CURRENCY Monetary unit: Rouble Currency units per USD (period average): Year 2005 28.3 December 2005 28.8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: RUSSIAN FEDERATION – ISBN 92-64-02995-8 – © OECD 2006 9 Executive summary The Russian economy has been enjoying a period of robust growth, thanks largely to steadily rising terms of trade. The challenge confronting policy-makers is to facilitate Russia’s transition into a period of self-sustaining, investment- and innovation-led growth. This will require a sound macroeconomic policy framework to manage the economy’s adjustment to sustained high oil prices and a range of structural reforms aimed at creating better framework conditions for business. Fiscal discipline is critical to managing the adjustment to high oil prices The efficient and prudent management of commodity windfalls is the principal macroeconomic policy challenge facing Russia today. An uncontrolled surge of windfall revenues into the economy would drive up inflation and undermine competitiveness. While monetary policy can play a supporting role, fiscal policy will remain the primary instrument for reducing inflation while avoiding excessively rapid exchange-rate appreciation. Policy should be based on a clear, credible fiscal rule, aimed at insulating the economy from commodity-price volatility. This basic fiscal rule could be operationalised by strengthening the legislative framework governing the Stabilisation Fund. Public administration reform would benefit citizens, entrepreneurs and policy-makers The inefficiency and corruption of the state administration impose a heavy burden on business and limit the government’s ability to implement any policies that make significant demands on the state’s administrative or regulatory capacities. Effective, consistent implementation of the government’s plans for administrative reform should therefore be a first-order priority. Russia needs. to improve the institutional environment within which the bureaucracy operates by strengthening the rule of law, adopting freedom of information legislation and enhancing parliamentary oversight of the executive; to empower citizens by adopting clear, accessible public service standards and creating an effective system of administrative redress for complaints; to fight corruption by strengthening enforcement and adopting whistleblower protection legislation; and to reduce state control and bureaucratic interference in business. Russia can do much to make innovation policies more effective Russia’s innovation potential is considerable but its innovation performance remains disappointing. Realising this potential will require further steps to create a healthy, open business environment, as well as steps to stimulate greater private R&D and strengthen the domestic IPR regime. Reform of the large but inefficient public science sector could make it more responsive to business needs. and more dynamic as an engine of knowledge creation. Specific innovation- promotion schemes, like special zones or technoparks, should be limited in scope, carefully targeted and rigorously assessed in order to avoid deadweight losses and market distortions. [...]... sector that encourage more cost-effective therapeutic choices; and modernising the system of mandatory medical insurance 10 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: RUSSIAN FEDERATION – ISBN 9 2-6 4-0 299 5-8 – © OECD 2006 ISBN 9 2-6 4-0 299 5-8 OECD Economic Surveys: Russian Federation © OECD 2006 Assessment and recommendations Recent economic performance has been impressive… Real GDP growth during 199 9-2 005 averaged 6.7% Initially... single-payer model, at least as an interim solution In any case, steps to foster greater competition among healthcare providers could increase the efficiency of resource use and the quality of care regardless of the specific model of financing adopted OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: RUSSIAN FEDERATION – ISBN 9 2-6 4-0 299 5-8 – © OECD 2006 19 ISBN 9 2-6 4-0 299 5-8 OECD Economic Surveys: Russian Federation © OECD 2006. .. period 200 0-0 3, a one-percentage-point 24 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: RUSSIAN FEDERATION – ISBN 9 2-6 4-0 299 5-8 – © OECD 2006 1 SUSTAINING GROWTH IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: KEY CHALLENGES Figure 1.1 Contributions to GDP growth As a percentage of GDP in same period of previous year Per cent 14 Per cent 14 Net exports Stockbuilding 12 Investment Final consumption GDP 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 Q1 2003... the terms of trade (+33% over 200 4-0 5) In order to appreciate the impact of recent terms-of-trade shifts on real incomes in Russia, it is necessary to look beyond the conventional measure of real GDP Volume GDP 22 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: RUSSIAN FEDERATION – ISBN 9 2-6 4-0 299 5-8 – © OECD 2006 1 SUSTAINING GROWTH IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: KEY CHALLENGES Table 1.1 Basic economic indicators 2001 2002 2003... 200 3-0 6 Growth, year-on-year Per cent Per cent 18 54 Oil output (left scale) 15 Exports of crude oil, 3 month MA (right scale) 45 12 36 9 27 6 18 3 9 0 0 -3 -9 Jan 03 Apr 03 July 03 Oct 03 Jan 04 Apr 04 July 04 Oct 04 Jan 05 Apr 05 July 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr 06 July 06 Source: Federal Service for State Statistics and OECD calculations OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: RUSSIAN FEDERATION – ISBN 9 2-6 4-0 299 5-8 – © OECD. .. the 30 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: RUSSIAN FEDERATION – ISBN 9 2-6 4-0 299 5-8 – © OECD 2006 1 SUSTAINING GROWTH IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: KEY CHALLENGES path of exchange-rate adjustment and prevent overly rapid real exchange-rate appreciation, in an effort to preserve the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector De facto, monetary policy revolves around managing the nominal exchange rate via large-scale... to be invested OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: RUSSIAN FEDERATION – ISBN 9 2-6 4-0 299 5-8 – © OECD 2006 33 1 SUSTAINING GROWTH IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: KEY CHALLENGES The priority projects outlined in the late summer of 2005 are being implemented during 200 6-0 7 They provide substantial new resources to address chronic weaknesses in parts of the public sector that have long suffered from under-funding and neglect... in 200 4-0 517 and a high elasticity of imports to domestic demand.18 In value terms, however, the share of imports OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: RUSSIAN FEDERATION – ISBN 9 2-6 4-0 299 5-8 – © OECD 2006 25 1 SUSTAINING GROWTH IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: KEY CHALLENGES in domestic demand has actually declined, as domestic prices have evolved much more dynamically than import prices.19 Rapid growth of import volumes... rates observed in other catching-up economies, in particular the faster-growing ones (Figure 1.4) Gross capital formation thus appears to be below what would probably be needed to sustain high growth rates in the absence of improving terms of trade Indeed, 26 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: RUSSIAN FEDERATION – ISBN 9 2-6 4-0 299 5-8 – © OECD 2006 1 SUSTAINING GROWTH IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: KEY CHALLENGES Figure... the picture much with respect to the sources of growth.29 The extraction sector has clearly lost momentum in volume terms, 28 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: RUSSIAN FEDERATION – ISBN 9 2-6 4-0 299 5-8 – © OECD 2006 1 SUSTAINING GROWTH IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: KEY CHALLENGES Table 1.3 Contributions to value-added growth Percentage change 2003 Gross value added at basic prices 2004 2005 H1 06/H1 05 7.4 6.9 6.2 6.4 . EnsuringSoundMacroeconomicManagement ImprovingtheQualityofPublicAdministration IncreasingtheEffectivenessofInnovationPolicy ReformingHealthcare Volume 2006/ 17 –November 2006 ISSN037 6-6 438 2006 SUBSCRIPTION (18ISSUES) Volume 2006/ 17 –November 2006 www .oecd. org ISBN9 2-6 4-0 299 5-8 10 2006 17 1P -: HSTCQE=UW^^Z]: Economic Surveys Mostrecenteditions Australia,July 2006 Austria,July2005 Belgium,May2005 Canada,June 2006 CzechRepublic,June 2006 Denmark,May 2006 Euroarea,September2005 Finland,May 2006 France,September2005 Germany,May 2006 Greece,September2005 Hungary,July2005 Iceland,August 2006 Ireland,March 2006 Italy,November2005 Japan,July 2006 Korea,November2005 Luxembourg,July 2006 Mexico,November2005 Netherlands,December2005 NewZealand,September2005 Norway,October2005 Poland,June 2006 Portugal,April 2006 SlovakRepublic,September2005 Spain,April2005 Sweden,August2005 Switzerland,January 2006 Turkey,October 2006 UnitedKingdom,November2005 UnitedStates,December2005 Non-MemberEconomies Mostrecenteditions BalticStates,February2000 Brazil,November 2006 Bulgaria,April1999 Chile,November2005 China,September2005 Romania,October2002 Russian Federation, November 2006 Slovenia,May1997 FederalRepublicofYugoslavia, January2003 Subscriberstothisprintedperiodicalareentitledtofreeonlineaccess.Ifyoudonotyethaveonlineaccess viayourinstitution’snetwork,contactyourlibrarianor,ifyousubscribepersonally,sendane-mailto: SourceOECD @oecd. org November 2006 ORGANISATION. OECD Economic Surveys Russian Federation Volume 2006/ 17 OECD Economic Surveys RUSSIAN FEDERATION Russian Federation SpecialFeatures: EnsuringSoundMacroeconomicManagement ImprovingtheQualityofPublicAdministration IncreasingtheEffectivenessofInnovationPolicy ReformingHealthcare Volume 2006/ 17 –November 2006 ISSN037 6-6 438 2006 SUBSCRIPTION (18ISSUES) Volume 2006/ 17 –November 2006 www .oecd. org ISBN9 2-6 4-0 299 5-8 10 2006 17 1P -: HSTCQE=UW^^Z]: Economic Surveys Mostrecenteditions Australia,July 2006 Austria,July2005 Belgium,May2005 Canada,June 2006 CzechRepublic,June 2006 Denmark,May 2006 Euroarea,September2005 Finland,May 2006 France,September2005 Germany,May 2006 Greece,September2005 Hungary,July2005 Iceland,August 2006 Ireland,March 2006 Italy,November2005 Japan,July 2006 Korea,November2005 Luxembourg,July 2006 Mexico,November2005 Netherlands,December2005 NewZealand,September2005 Norway,October2005 Poland,June 2006 Portugal,April 2006 SlovakRepublic,September2005 Spain,April2005 Sweden,August2005 Switzerland,January 2006 Turkey,October 2006 UnitedKingdom,November2005 UnitedStates,December2005 Non-MemberEconomies Mostrecenteditions BalticStates,February2000 Brazil,November 2006 Bulgaria,April1999 Chile,November2005 China,September2005 Romania,October2002 Russian Federation, November 2006 Slovenia,May1997 FederalRepublicofYugoslavia, January2003 Subscriberstothisprintedperiodicalareentitledtofreeonlineaccess.Ifyoudonotyethaveonlineaccess viayourinstitution’snetwork,contactyourlibrarianor,ifyousubscribepersonally,sendane-mailto: SourceOECD @oecd. org November 2006 ORGANISATION. EnsuringSoundMacroeconomicManagement ImprovingtheQualityofPublicAdministration IncreasingtheEffectivenessofInnovationPolicy ReformingHealthcare Volume 2006/ 17 –November 2006 ISSN037 6-6 438 2006 SUBSCRIPTION (18ISSUES) Volume 2006/ 17 –November 2006 www .oecd. org ISBN9 2-6 4-0 299 5-8 10 2006 17 1P -: HSTCQE=UW^^Z]: Economic Surveys Mostrecenteditions Australia,July 2006 Austria,July2005 Belgium,May2005 Canada,June 2006 CzechRepublic,June 2006 Denmark,May 2006 Euroarea,September2005 Finland,May 2006 France,September2005 Germany,May 2006 Greece,September2005 Hungary,July2005 Iceland,August 2006 Ireland,March 2006 Italy,November2005 Japan,July 2006 Korea,November2005 Luxembourg,July 2006 Mexico,November2005 Netherlands,December2005 NewZealand,September2005 Norway,October2005 Poland,June 2006 Portugal,April 2006 SlovakRepublic,September2005 Spain,April2005 Sweden,August2005 Switzerland,January 2006 Turkey,October 2006 UnitedKingdom,November2005 UnitedStates,December2005 Non-MemberEconomies Mostrecenteditions BalticStates,February2000 Brazil,November 2006 Bulgaria,April1999 Chile,November2005 China,September2005 Romania,October2002 Russian Federation, November 2006 Slovenia,May1997 FederalRepublicofYugoslavia, January2003 Subscriberstothisprintedperiodicalareentitledtofreeonlineaccess.Ifyoudonotyethaveonlineaccess viayourinstitution’snetwork,contactyourlibrarianor,ifyousubscribepersonally,sendane-mailto: SourceOECD @oecd. org November 2006 ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OECD Economic Surveys Russian Federation 2006 ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION
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