financial risk taking-an intro to the psychology of tr and behav fin - elvin 2004

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Financial Risk Taking WILEY TRADING SERIES Financial Risk Taking: An Introduction to the Psychology of Trading and Behavioural Finance Mike Elvin Single Stock Futures: A Trader’s Guide Patrick L Young and Charles Sidey Uncertainty and Expectation: Strategies for the Trading of Risk Gerald Ashley Bear Market Investing Strategies Harry D Schultz The Psychology of Finance, revised edition Lars Tvede The Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior Robert R Prechter International Commodity Trading Ephraim Clark, Jean-Baptiste Lesourd and Ren´ Thi´ blemont e e Dynamic Technical Analysis Philippe Cahen Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns Thomas N Bulkowski Integrated Technical Analysis Ian Copsey Financial Markets Tick by Tick: Insights in Financial Markets Microstructure Pierre Lequeux Technical Market Indicators: Analysis and Performance Richard J Bauer and Julie R Dahlquist Trading to Win: The Psychology of Mastering the Markets Ari Kiev Pricing Convertible Bonds Kevin Connolly At the Crest of the Tidal Wave: A Forecast for the Great Bear Market Robert R Prechter FINANCIAL RISK TAKING An Introduction to the Psychology of Trading and Behavioural Finance Mike Elvin Copyright  2004 John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ, England Telephone (+44) 1243 779777 Email (for orders and customer service enquiries): cs-books@wiley.co.uk Visit our Home Page on www.wileyeurope.com or www.wiley.com All Rights Reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except under the terms of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 or under the terms of a licence issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency Ltd, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4LP, UK, without the permission in writing of the Publisher Requests to the Publisher should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ, England, or emailed to permreq@wiley.co.uk, or faxed to (+44) 1243 770620 This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered It is sold on the understanding that the Publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought Other Wiley Editorial Offices John Wiley & Sons Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA Jossey-Bass, 989 Market Street, San Francisco, CA 94103-1741, USA Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH, Boschstr 12, D-69469 Weinheim, Germany John Wiley & Sons Australia Ltd, 33 Park Road, Milton, Queensland 4064, Australia John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte Ltd, Clementi Loop #02-01, Jin Xing Distripark, Singapore 129809 John Wiley & Sons Canada Ltd, 22 Worcester Road, Etobicoke, Ontario, Canada M9W 1L1 Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Elvin, Mike Financial risk taking : an introduction to the psychology of trading and behavioural finance / Mike Elvin p cm Includes bibliographical references and index ISBN 0-470-85026-4 (alk paper) Stocks – Psychological aspects Speculation – Psychological aspects Investments – Psychological aspects I Title HG6041.E48 2004 332.6 01 – dc22 2004002789 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 0-470-85026-4 Typeset in 10/12pt Times by Laserwords Private Limited, Chennai, India Printed and bound in Great Britain by MPG Limited, Bodmin, Cornwall This book is printed on acid-free paper responsibly manufactured from sustainable forestry in which at least two trees are planted for each one used for paper production List of Figures Figure 3.1 The Comprehensive MOT 46 Figure 3.2 Example of technical analysis 69 Figure 3.3 Trading and decision diary 73 Figure 3.4 Candle chart 74 Figure 3.5 Equity chart 75 Figure 4.1 The Yerkes-Dodson law of arousal 95 Figure 6.1 The brain and limbic system 156 Figure 7.1 General centring triangle 187 Figure 7.2 Trading centring triangle 188 To my parents, and my son Lewis, through whom my life has been greatly enriched To traders everywhere, who have had the courage, determination, and vision to walk upon a unique path Contents List of Figures ix Foreword xi Contrarian Investment Strategies Acknowledgements xiii xv Introduction: Between Scylla and Charybdis Understanding Trading Competence 13 A Comprehensive Model of Trading Competence Part A: The Tactical Model of Trading Competence Part B: The Strategic Model of Trading Competence 45 47 59 Taming Stress to Become a Better Trader 83 The Psychology of Perceptual Bias 123 Emotions, Emotional Intelligence, and the Trader 151 Martial Arts and Budo Zen – Controlling Fear and Self-Sabotage 179 Standards and Criteria for Trading Competence 219 Appendix Reading List 235 Appendix Websites of Interest 239 Appendix Courses and Seminars 243 Bibliography 247 Index 257 Index worry 97, 103, 159–2, 191, 195–6, 225–6 see also fears Employment reports 27 endocrine activity, stress 84, 225 energising work 60 entertainment value, trading 19–20, 21, 60, 71, 220 entry strategies 22, 29 equity bar charts, examples 74 equity drawdown, system selections 115, 127 errors of judgement 10, 124 evolution law, warrior trader Kyokushin 183 evolved faith, concepts 188–9 execution checks, concepts 25, 29–30 exhaustion stage, General Adaptation Syndrome 92–5 exit strategies 22, 29–30, 55–6 expected values, concepts 23 experience 6, 14–15, 61, 168–941 experts 8, 16, 36–40, 45, 49–50, 62, 135–6, 140–1, 146 ‘experts’ 8, 132–8 halo effect 131–5, 140–1, 146 intuition 39–40, 62 exposure rules 71, 117, 231 extensions, concepts 28–9 Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (MacKay) 78 extroverts 24–5, 76, 99–100, 208–9 Eysenck, M 41, 45, 98, 136 failed retests, chart patterns 28 failures, predictions 105–6, 199, 212–13 faith, concepts 188–9 Fall, Albert 214 false breakouts 22 false consensus effect 136 ‘false memory’ syndrome 163 fast order entry systems 45 fears 10–11, 16, 54, 90–1, 95–6, 103–4, 132–3, 151, 158–77, 179–218 263 breathing techniques 171, 186–7, 191, 193–4 Budo Zen 21, 53, 100, 179–218 concepts 10–11, 16, 53, 90–1, 95–6, 132–3, 151, 159–77, 190–1, 195–6 coping techniques 169–71, 179–218 definition 159 only-exist-in-the-present-moment concepts 35–6, 54, 190–2 persuasion techniques 132–3 Samurai 54, 179–218 self-sabotage behaviour 195–6 types 52–4, 190–1 see also emotions Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) 27, 41, 49, 233 Federal Reserve 75 feelings see emotions Festinger, L 133–6, 141–2, 145 Fibonacci series 28, 32–3, 56, 205, 223 fight-or-flight responses 84–5, 92–5, 96–7, 161–2, 180, 225–6 financial advisers poor performance 10–11, 206–7, 209 prediction statistics 10–12, 75–8 financial management 70, 108, 111–16, 220, 231 see also risk financial risk taking, concepts 1–2 Financial Services Authority (FSA) 77 financial statements, fundamental analysis 66–8 fire skills, concepts 25–30 first impressions 130 Fischoff, B 205–6 Fisher, Ken 136 fishing analogies, ambush considerations 51 five phases, losses 192–4 flawless executions, concepts 16–17 flexibility needs see adaptability focus concepts 15–18, 37–8, 48, 101, 159, 162, 180, 216 mental images 50, 53, 101 self-awareness 102–3 264 Index Folkman, S 102 FOMC see Federal Open Market Committee football violence, boredom 195 forecasts see predictions FOREX 233 Fortune Sellers, The (Sherden) 76 four pillars of warrior motivation, Budo Zen 181–2 frames of reference, concepts 147–8, 212 framing effects 143, 169–76 Frantz 41 Fraser, Leon 214 freezing considerations 35–6, 58, 110–111 Freud, S 98 Friedman, M 98 Frijda, N 157 ‘frozen trader’ syndrome 171 frustrations 169, 173 see also emotions FSA see Financial Services Authority FTSE 100, 76–7 fund managers 11, 207 fundamental analysis, concepts 65–6, 222–4, 233 Future Shock (Toffler) 63 futures 1, 2–8, 14, 15, 58, 233 general centring triangle 186–7 general trading rules, concepts 116–18 generic learning, concepts 31–6, 200 Genie Software 146 Gibbons, Edward GIGO effect 40–1 Gilhooly, K.J 36, 45 glucocorticoids 50, 84–5, 90, 225–6 glucose, stress 84–6 God 216–17 golden exit rules 55–6 Golden Mean, The 33 Goleman, D 41, 59–62, 152, 165–8 ‘good enough’ courses of action 62 Google 240–1 Gorman, D 45 government economists, failings 75 greed 151 see also emotions Green, A.J.K 36 grief 192–4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 27, 233 group behaviour, concepts 78, 138–40, 229 growth investors, concepts 66–7 Guardian 75 guesses 41–2, 76 guilt feelings 103, 193 ‘gurus’ 20, 126–7 Gage, Phineas 153–4, 165 Galbraith, John 78 Gamblers Anonymous 205, 216, 241 gambling, concepts 16–17, 21, 70, 108, 197–8, 202–9, 215 Gann, W.D 85, 220, 223 gaps, concepts 28, 222–4 gardening metaphor, monitoring needs 55, 98 GARP investors (growth at a reasonable price) 66–7 GAS see General Adaptation Syndrome gas tank rule, concepts 29 GDP see Gross Domestic Product General Adaptation Syndrome (GAS), concepts 90–2, 93–5, 106, 225–6 habits, awareness 31–2, 49, 58 Hall, E.M 89 Hallam, A 127 halo effect concepts 7, 41, 78, 131–5, 140–1, 146, 161, 229 definition 130–4 persuasion techniques 131–4 handsomeness, halo effect 131 hara 188 Haragei 186–7, 191 hardiness concepts 99 Harlow, Dr 154 Haugen, R 76 Hawkes, N 195 hedging hedonistic stakes 136 Index herd phenomena, concepts 7–8, 11, 113, 135–40, 229 Hidden Persuaders, The (Packard) 126 Higgins, E 125 high blood pressures 89 higher goals and objectives, Budo Zen 182 hindsight bias, concepts 205–7 hippocampus 85, 155 ‘hole in my soul’ 209, 213 Holmes, T.H 86 home trading 24–5, 33–4, 56, 91–2, 93–4, 109, 170, 208 advantages 56, 109–10, 208 availability errors 128 day traders 109 disadvantages 91–2, 93–4, 107, 109 statements of shared values and aspirations 109–10 stressors 91–2, 93–4, 107, 208 SWOT analysis 33–4, 109 hopelessness 204–5, 212–17 Hopson, Howard 214 hormones, stress 50, 84–6 hourly close, concepts 28 How to Make Money in Commodities (Gann) 85 How to Trade in Stocks (Livermore) 14 human needs, Maslow’s hierarchy 180–1 hypnosis 163 hypothalamus 84 ideo-motor theory, concepts 96–7, 225–6 illusion of control 137, 139, 207–9 illusory correlation bias, concepts 116 imagine-success concepts, ACTION acronym 35–6, 53–54, 189–90 IMF see International Monetary Fund immediate performance reviews, Tactical MOT 57–8, 119 impatience concepts 169, 172–3 see also emotions 265 impulse controls, self-sabotage behaviour 196 incentives, stressors 90 incidental learning, concepts 34–6, 45, 59 indifferent acceptance, losses 186 individual differences, stressors 98 inertia law, warrior trader Kyokushin 183 information 10–11, 22, 49, 62–6, 72–4, 125, 206, 232–3 dangers 206, 232–3 decaying tendencies 64 filtering methods 63–4 overload problems 22, 62–4, 232 stress 63–5 see also data .; knowledge information bias, concepts 147 initiating-the-trade decision 64 initiative 60, 64, 169, 230 instincts 153–4 Insull, Samuel 214 insurance companies 11 intelligence 36, 131, 152–3, 165–8 see also emotional intelligence intelligent battle plans 13–14 International Monetary Fund (IMF) 75 Internet background 24–5, 78–81, 91, 106–7, 170, 232 chat groups 81, 91, 106–7 trading schools 24–5 websites list 25, 107, 205, 220, 239–41 intra-day dynamics 25 Introduction to Medical Decision-Making (Lusted) 206–7 introverts 24–5, 208 intuition concepts 38–42, 53, 62, 186–9, 230 definitions 41–2, 62 predictions 39–41 self-awareness 42, 59, 62, 162–4, 230 Intuitive Trader, The (Koppel) 62 investment funds, performance statistics 77 irrational beliefs 104, 124–49, 152–3 irrational group behaviour 78 266 Jacobsen, C.F 95–6 James, William 96, 158 Janis, I.L 139 Japan, Samurai 54, 179–218 Jenkins, J 151–3, 159 Jesse Livermore: The World’s Greatest Stock Trader (Smitten) 14, 210 Jim’s story, self-sabotage behaviour 198–200, 213 job interviews 40–1 Johnson, J.V 89 judgement effects moods 158–65, 168–9, 196–7, 230 see also decision making Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (Kahneman et al ) 38–9 Kahn, H 64, 77 Kahneman, D 23, 38–9, 90, 135–8, 143 Kalin, N.H 161 Karasak, R 89 Karlsmith, J.M 145 ‘KATA’ rehearsals, martial arts 50 Keil, F.C 63 Kennedy, John Kindleberger, C.P 78 knowledge 36–8, 63, 206 see also information Kobasa, S.C 99 Kogan, N 138–9 Kokyu-Kihara 186–8, 191 Kolb, A 14–15 Kolb, D.A 14–15 Koppel, R 62 Krueger, Ivan 214 Kyokushin 182–5 lack of stability, self-sabotage behaviour 197 Lakein, A 107 law of small numbers see sample-size bias laws, warrior trader Kyokushin 182–5 Lazarus, R.S 86, 102 Index learned helplessness, concepts 105–6, 199, 212–13, 226, 229 learning issues 1–8, 14–43, 57, 77–81, 97–8, 111, 157–69, 200, 207–8 ACT Architecture (Adaptive Control of Thought) 37–8 alchemy courses brain evolution 155–7 Chief Wizard 2–8, 15, 135 cognitive psychological research 36–8, 165 concepts 14–19, 31–6, 80, 97–8, 111, 157–60, 162–3, 165–9, 200, 207–8 continuing-education needs 76, 233 courses and seminars 32–3, 75, 243–5 effective modes 14–15 emotions 157–60, 162–3, 165–9 environmental factors 37–8 experts 36–8, 45 failings 2–8, 11–12, 14–15 generic learning 31–6, 200 incidental learning 34–6, 45, 59 Internet 24–5 lessons learned 57, 97–8, 172, 192, 207–8 locus of control 136, 207–9 mistakes 38, 97–8, 117, 168, 172, 192 qualifications 77–8, 135–8, 208–9 Strategic MOT 81, 233 trading-competence steps 15–19, 36–8, 79–81, 111, 220–33 unlearning hypothesis 1, 32 see also training Lebriere 37 LeDoux, Joseph 155, 157 Leeson, Nick 202 Lef´ vre, E 9, 13 e left pre-frontal cortex 61, 85, 157, 168 lessons learned 57, 97–8, 120, 172, 192, 207–8 ‘letting your winners run and cutting your losses short’ 55, 64, 143, 145, 148 Leventhal, H 162 Index lies 128, 202–9 life purpose, Budo Zen 182 life stressors concepts 86–91, 225–6 see also stress LIFFE 24, 228, 233 limbic system 85, 155–7 limits, concepts 28, 231 Linton, M 164 liquidity, fundamental analysis 65–7 liver, stress 84–5 Livermore, Jesse 8–9, 12, 13–14, 26, 48, 202–3, 210–11, 214 locus of control 136, 207–9 Loftus, E.F 163 Loftus, G.R 163 logs see record-keeping London Stock Exchange 135, 207, 208–9, 233 long-term traders see position traders Longfellow, Henry Wadsworth 81 Lorenz, K 153 losing behaviours, concepts 20–1, 214–16 losing phase, compulsive trading 203 loss cycles 10, 198–200, 213 losses 9–10, 16–27, 30, 52–55, 64, 67–72, 90–2, 96–106, 117–19, 192–200, 213 accept-losses concepts 35–6, 52, 185–6, 192–3 anger 192–3, 196 blame 20–1, 196 coping techniques 192–4 five phases 192–4 grief 192–4 ‘letting your winners run and cutting your losses short’ 55, 67–72, 143, 145, 148 money management 21 profits 26–7, 30, 48–51, 64, 71–2, 117–19 risk attitudes 26–7, 29, 52, 143–5, 199–209 stressors 91–2, 96–105 Tactical MOT 55–7 267 trading-competence steps 16, 20–1, 117–19, 231–3 types 21 luck 77 Lusted, L.B 206–7 ‘M’ formation, chart patterns 28, 222–4 McCall, Richard D 35–6, 45, 52–53, 180–2, 194 MacKay, Charles 78 McKee, A 59 McLean, Paul 155 ‘Magic Number Seven Plus or Minus Two, The’ (Miller) 50 stress 100–13, 170–6, 179–218, 220, 225–6 Mandler, G 159 manifestation law, warrior trader Kyokushin 184 Mann, I 139 market analysis concepts 58–65, 220, 222–4 see also fundamental .; technical market directions 28, 55–6 Market Maker (Level II) information 45 Market Wizards (Schwager) market-timing investment approaches, concepts 67 markets 5–9, 16, 32–5, 49, 57, 68–76, 113, 117–18, 141–2, 224, 233 bear/bull markets 9, 34–5, 49, 57, 68, 76, 113, 117, 141–2, 233 Relative Strength Index 69, 224 trading-competence steps 16 Volume Spread Analysis 5–7, 9, 32–5, 65–72 martial arts 21, 50, 179–218 see also warrior traders Maslow, Abraham 180–1, 217 Massachusetts Institute of Technology 14 Master of Business Administration courses (MBAs) 8, 67, 107 mastery and success destination 185 mathematics 5, 8–9, 23, 39–41, 62 Mayer, John 165 MBAs see Master of Business Administration courses 268 measurable objectives, SMART 110–11, 192, 200 media 10–11, 76, 125, 127 meditation techniques, concepts 59, 101, 170, 186–7, 193–4, 202, 226 memories 10, 36, 155–7, 158–9, 162–3, 166, 232 see also schema mental accounting 136 mental fatigue 84 mental health policies, availability errors 127 mental images 35–6, 50, 53, 95–8, 102, 189–90, 225–6 mental rehearsals, concepts 32, 34–8, 49–50, 119, 162, 200–1 mental state see schema Merryll Lynch 75 metacognition concepts 169 metamood concepts 169 metaphysical imagination, imagine-success concepts 190 metaphysics 54, 184, 188, 190 method, concepts 9–10, 13–14, 19, 21–3, 42, 55–6, 108, 111–16, 219–33 Meyers, T 114 micro stressors see daily hassles Meichenbaum, D 104 Milgram, S 136 Miller, G.A 50, 63 Millman, Dan 59 Millman, G 210–11 mind centring concepts 35–6, 53, 61, 186–8, 193–4, 216–17 concepts 19–23, 26–30, 79–80, 179, 194–218, 221 see also brain; psychology misattribution concepts 160, 164 Misogi (walking meditation) 60, 193–4, 202, 226 misplaced consistency theory 7, 140–5, 229 mission statements, concepts 110, 227 Mississippi Land Boom 78 Index mistakes, learning issues 38, 97–117, 118, 168, 172, 192 mnemonics, learning processes 35 models effective learning 14–15 stress 91–9 Models of Man: Social and Rational (Simon) 62–3 momentum, concepts 69, 184–5 money, power 210 money management concepts 15–16, 19, 21, 22–3, 29, 31, 65, 69–80, 113–16 losses 21, 69–72 trading competences 19, 21, 22–3, 29, 31, 59–65, 69, 113–16 see also risk monitoring needs concepts 18–19, 55–6, 69–72, 98, 119 see also self-monitoring monkeys, stress 89–90 Montier, James 137 moods concepts 158–64, 168–77, 196–7, 230 see also emotions Morris, L 97, 162 mortality awareness, Budo Zen 181–2 motivation Budo Zen 181–2 concepts 61, 130, 155–6, 168, 175–6 see also optimism motivational research (MR) 126 moving averages 2, 6, 22, 25, 27–9, 72, 114, 222–4 see also trends MR see motivational research muscle-tension model, stress 95–8, 101, 225–6 music, self-sabotage minimisation 201 musicians, rehearsals 32 mutual funds, performance statistics 76 NASDAQ 27, 29, 58, 228, 233 needs, Maslow’s hierarchy 180–1 negative emotional states 174 Index negative stress, concepts 93–5 net asset turnover, definition 68 neural anatomy, self-awareness 61 neuropsychology research 156, 165 neutral zones, concepts 28 never-stop-or-look-back concepts, ACTION acronym 35–6, 54, 192 New Leaders, The (Goleman) 59, 152, 165 new-date sections, trading-competence standards 221–33 Newall, A 36–7 newspapers 10–11, 49, 75, 79–81, 125, 127 Nicomachean Ethics, The (Aristotle) 152 Niebuhr, Reinhold 216 Niedenthal, P.M 161 NLP 181 noise 87, 207–8 noradrenalin 84 null hypotheses 8, 31 nutrition benefits, self-sabotage minimisation 201 NYSE 233 Oatley, K 45, 151–3, 159 objectiveness needs, trading-competence steps 18, 26, 31–2, 71, 141–2, 169–76 objectives business plans 107–119, 226–8 processes 184–5 self-sabotage behaviour 20–1, 23, 179, 194–218 SMART objectives 110–11, 192, 200, 227 Observer 75 O’Creevy, Professor Fenton 137, 207–8 Ohlsson, S 38 olfactory lobe 155 only-exist-in-the-present-moment concepts, ACTION acronym 35–6, 54, 190–2 open interest, beliefs 22, 72, 113 open outcry 24, 99–100, 109, 208 opinions, others 49 269 opportunities 1–2, 18, 33–4, 60–1, 109–10, 146, 169, 175 optimal sizes, exposure rules 71, 116 optimism 52, 61, 99, 139, 175–6, 185–6, 190 see also motivation options 1, 14, 233 oscillators 72, 146 out-of-body experiences overconfidence issues 7, 62, 136, 167, 196, 205–7 overtrading problems 58, 108, 202 see also compulsive trading overview 1–2, 220–1 Packard, Vance 126 panic attacks 161, 170–1 see also fears paper trading, benefits 32, 34, 37 paradigms, concepts 10–11 parallel trend lines, concepts 56 paramouncy principle, concepts 9–10, 12, 13, 198, 219, 233 parasympathetic nervous system, concepts 91–2 passive management styles 66 passive meditation 60, 102, 171, 179–80, 186–7, 202, 226 ‘past performance’, predictions 206 Patel, A 47 Pavlov, I.P 157–8 PCs, home trading 24–5 pension funds 11, 77 perceptions, emotions 158–9, 161–77, 186 perceptual biases 7, 9–10, 12, 29, 34, 54–5, 123–49, 161–3, 194, 219, 229 see also self-sabotage behaviour performance reviews 57–8, 72–4, 108, 119, 220–33 performance sections, trading-competence standards 220–33 periodic performance reviews, Tactical MOT 57–8, 119 persistence failings, self-sabotage behaviour 195 270 personal belief paradigm, concepts 10–12, 96–8, 112, 124, 181–2, 229 personal competence, theories 59 personal stressors concepts 86–9 see also stress personality types 24–5, 98–100, 157, 207–9 persuasion techniques, concepts 132–4, 165 pessimism 52, 61, 99, 185–6, 190 Peters, D 134 physical effects, stress 84–122 physical exercises, benefits 102, 201–2, 226 physical imagination, imagine-success concepts 189–90 physiological coping techniques, stress management 100–3, 225–6 physiology, brain 61, 85, 130, 155, 166–7, 225–6, 230 pike analogies, Tactical MOT 51 pit traders 24–5, 99–100, 109, 208 pituitary gland 84–6 plans 50, 54, 74, 107–19 action plans 74, 111, 220–33 business plans 107–119, 159–61, 220, 226–8 contingencies 107–119 training issues 81, 233 Plato 152 point and figure, concepts 22 poor predictions, traders 39–40, 72, 206–7, 209 position sizing 23, 29–30, 38, 71, 231 position traders, concepts 108–9, 114–15, 167 positive affirmations 18 positive stress, concepts 93–5 power, money 210 PPI see Producer Price Index practice, concepts 32, 34–8, 49–50, 189 predictions accuracy statistics 10–12, 76, 125, 207 biases 75–8, 125 Index economists 75–7, 207 failures 106, 199, 212–13 intuition 39–41, 62 mathematics 39–41 newspapers 10–11, 49, 75–79, 125 ‘past performance’ 206 poor predictions 39–40, 77, 206–7, 209 preferences 61 presumed faith, concepts 189 price spread 1, 22, 49, 113 prices predictions 10–12, 49, 76, 125, 207 technical analysis 22, 27–30, 66–9, primacy errors concepts 130–1, 229 see also availability priority sections, trading-competence standards 221–33 probabilities concepts 11–12, 16–19, 22–3, 49–50, 197–8 gambling/speculation contrasts 197–8, 202–9, 215 see also risk problem-focused coping techniques, stress management 102–3, 225–6 problem-solving techniques, experts 36–8, 45 proceduralisation concepts, ACT Architecture 37–8 process and action law, warrior trader Kyokushin 184–5 procrastination, self-sabotage behaviour 195 Producer Price Index (PPI) 27, 233 profits 26–7, 30, 48, 56, 64, 71–2, 114–19, 143–5 fundamental analysis 66–8 ‘letting your winners run and cutting your losses short’ 55, 64, 114–19, 143, 145, 148 see also returns Prosniewski, S 24 prospect theory, concepts 143–4, 148, 229 Prudential Securities 75 Index 271 Psychoanalytic Theory 98 psychologists emotions 152–4 predictions 40 psychology concepts xiii, 1–2, 7–9, 13–14, 19–23, 26–31 of financial risk taking 8–9 of trading 31 see also mind punishments, learning issues 38 qualifications, dealers and brokers 135–8, 208–9 77, racism 4, 140 RAF see ready–aim–fire Rahe, R.H 86 random walks 179 range concepts 27, 56 Raschke 45 rational emotive therapy, stress management 104, 226 rational thoughts, emotions 104, 152–3, 155–7, 165, 171 rats, stress 83, 92–5 RD see Duncan, Robert readiness effects, emotions 157–75 reading lists 114, 195, 220, 235–8 ready–aim–fire (RAF) skills, concepts 25–30 real-time tick volumes 49 realistic objectives, SMART 111, 192, 200 reality 10–11, 83, 96–8, 112, 124, 145–6, 147–8, 184 reason, emotions 152 recency effect concepts 130–1, 229 see also availability errors recommended readings 114, 195, 220, 235–8 record-keeping needs 21, 30, 116, 119, 163 recreation benefits, self-sabotage minimisation 201 reflection, concepts 14–15, 54, 60, 191 reframing techniques, emotions 169–76 refutation processes, concepts 11–12, 31, 33–4, 49, 56, 62, 209, 229 regrets 172 see also emotions rehearsals, concepts 32, 34–8, 50, 119, 162, 200–1 relationships 50, 58, 112–13, 196–9, 203–4 Relative Strength Index (RSI) 69, 224 relaxation benefits 96, 102, 171, 202 reliability bias, concepts 115 religions 181, 216–17 Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Lef´ vre) 9, 13–14 e repetition 19–20, 132 representativeness bias, concepts 125, 146 resistance concepts 22, 27, 30, 56, 68–72, 92–5, 223 resistance stage, General Adaptation Syndrome 92–5 responsibilities trading 16–17, 183, 192–3 warrior trader Kyokushin 183 retracements, concepts 28, 56, 170, 173–4 returns 66–75 on capital employed 67 on equity 67 see also profits reversals 108, 222–4 review sections, trading-competence standards 221–33 rewards learning issues 38 risk/reward ratio 29–30, 54, 56, 115, 127, 231 right pre-frontal cortex 157 Rilke, Rainer Maria 151 risk 1–2, 17–21, 26–9, 35–6, 49–52, 63–71, 133–8, 185–6, 192–3, 199–200, 207–9 acceptance 35–6, 52, 185–6, 192–3 assessments 49 attitudes 26–7, 29, 52, 143–5, 199–209 272 risk (continued ) business risk 21, 29 concepts 1–2, 17–18, 26–7, 29, 52, 69, 137, 199–200, 207–9 definition management 23, 29, 71–2, 111–16, 220, 231 risk/reward ratio 29–30, 54, 115, 127, 231 see also probabilities risk-aversive attitudes, concepts 143–5, 199–201, 229 risk-seeking attitudes, concepts 143–5, 199–209 risky shift 7, 138–40, 229 role models 174 Rosenman, R.H 98 Rosenthal, Dr 202 Rotton, J 87 RSI see Relative Strength Index S&P see Standard and Poors Salovey, Peter 165 sample-size bias, concepts 116, 147, 229 Samurai 54, 179–218 see also warrior traders Santa Claus syndrome 124, 220 SAS see Special Air Service satisficing concepts 62–3 scapegoats 161 Schachter, S 164 schema, concepts 1, 10, 17, 45 schizophrenia 127 Schjer, P 99 Schroder’s Funds 77 Schwab, Charles 214 Schwager, Jack 2, 10–11, 45, 47, 96–8, 114, 219 sciences 5, 8–9, 23, 38, 39–41, 62, 134–5 seasonality concepts 113 seated meditation (Zazen) 60, 101, 170, 179–80, 186–7, 202, 226 Second World War 83–4 sector-rotation investment approaches, concepts 67 securities analysts, predictions 40 Index Securities Institute 77 self-actualisation, concepts 180–1 self-assessments, concepts 48, 60, 167, 230 self-awareness components 59–60, 162–4, 175, 230 concepts 42, 45, 47–8, 102–3, 165–7, 173–6, 181–2, 190, 219, 230 emotions 47–8, 59–62, 162–4, 174–6, 190, 230 intuition 42, 62, 162–7, 230 neural anatomy 61–62 skills 47–8, 102–3, 190, 219, 230 see also awareness self-concept, tutors 80 self-confidence concepts 60, 62, 167, 230 see also confidence self-controls 48, 60, 102–3, 117, 169, 175–6, 230 self-deception bias, concepts 124, 145–6, 147–8, 229 self-defeating behaviour 9–10 self-destructive behaviours 20–1 self-doubts, self-sabotage behaviour 197 self-efficacy 105 self-esteem 17, 96–8, 102–7, 132–4, 199, 213 self-fulfilling prophecies 186 self-hypnosis 18 self-management, concepts 45, 59–62, 169, 174–6, 219, 230 self-monitoring needs, trading-competence steps 18–19 self-recriminations 55, 57 self-sabotage behaviour 20–1, 23, 179, 194–218 alcohol misuse 20, 93, 103, 175, 196, 201, 216 beliefs 194–218 Budo Zen 179, 194–218 compulsive trading 173, 202–9 concepts 20–1, 23, 179, 194–218 coping techniques 200–17 definition 194 drug misuse 196, 201, 216 Index emotions 194–218 Jim’s story 198–200, 213 learned helplessness 105–6, 199, 212–13, 226, 229 locus of control 136, 207–9 mind 20–1, 179, 194–218 minimisation techniques 200–17 overconfidence issues 202–3, 205–7 suicides 21, 204, 209–10, 212–17 see also perceptual biases Seligman, Martin 105–6, 199 Selye, Hans 45, 90–2, 93–5, 106 seminars 32–3, 81, 243–5 September 11th, 2001 terrorist attacks 20, 86, 128 Sergeant, William 219 Setterlund, M.B 161 Shakespeare, William 209 Sherden, William 76 Shiller, Robert J 136 Short History of Financial Euphoria, A (Galbraith) 78 short-term traders see day traders Silcock, Ben 127 SIMEX 202 Simon, H.A 36, 41, 62 Singer, J 164 skills ACT Architecture (Adaptive Control of Thought) 37–8 cognitive psychological research 36–8, 168 experts 36–8, 45, 132–8 improvement methods 31–8, 45, 219–33 rehearsals 32, 34–8, 49–50, 200–1 self-awareness 47–8, 102–3, 190, 219, 230 stress inoculation 104–5, 226 trading 11–12, 13–43, 45–82, 186–9, 219–33 trust concepts 35–6, 53, 186–9 warrior traders 179–218 slippage concepts 29, 71–2, 231 Slovic, P 38–9, 128 SMART objectives (specific, measurable, achievable, realistic, timely), 273 concepts 110–11, 185, 192, 200, 227 smell senses 155 Smith, J 87 Smitten, R 14, 210 Social Readjustment Rating Scale (SRRS) 86–8 social support, stress 89–90, 99, 106–7 Society of Technical Analysts UK 220 Socrates 152 Soros, George 61 soul passion, Budo Zen 182 South Sea Bubble 78 Special Air Service (SAS) 50 specific objectives, SMART 110, 192, 200 speculators 2, 9, 14, 78, 117–18, 197–8, 202–9, 215 spinal cord 155, 166 spirit 35–6, 53, 60, 79–80, 180–218, 221 sports 32, 50 spread betting SRRS see Social Readjustment Rating Scale Standard and Poors (S&P) 24–5, 27, 76, 188, 228 standards 19, 38, 168, 219–33 statements of shared values and aspirations, concepts 109–10 statistics biases 147 concepts 8, 116, 124, 134, 147 ‘lies, damn lies, and statistics’ 128 sample-size bias 116, 147 Statman, Meir 136 stereotypes 140, 146 STILL acronym, concepts 170, 186–7 stock index futures 1–2, 7, 58 stockbrokers 75–7, 207, 208–9, 233 stop points, concepts 29, 56–8, 71–2, 160, 231 Strategic Model of Trading Competence (Strategic MOT) 47, 59–82, 186, 188 see also Comprehensive Model 274 strategies concepts 9–10, 47, 185–92 warrior traders 185–92 strengths 33–4, 60, 233 stress 10, 50, 63–5, 77, 83–122, 123–4, 161–2, 179–218, 225–6 biological measures 85 brain 84–122 breathing techniques 171, 174, 186–7, 191, 193–4 Budo Zen 21, 53, 100, 179–218 business plans 107–19, 226 concepts 10, 50, 63–5, 77, 83–122, 123–4, 161–2, 179–218, 225–6 control links 89–90, 105–7, 210 coping techniques 95–6, 99–13, 170–6, 179–218, 220, 225–6 decision making 98, 123, 158–2 definition 83 depression 48, 64, 89, 93, 102–7, 157, 193, 196, 204, 209–17 fight-or-flight responses 84–5, 93–5, 97, 161–2, 180, 225–6 General Adaptation Syndrome 90–2, 93–5, 106, 225–6 hardiness concepts 99 home trading 91–2, 93–4, 107, 109, 208 hormones 50, 84–6 ideo-motor theory 96–7, 225–6 individual differences 99 inoculation techniques 104–5, 226 learned helplessness 105–6, 199, 212–13, 226, 229 meditation techniques 60, 101, 170, 186–7, 193–4, 202, 226 mental images 95–8 models 91–9, 225–6 muscle-tension model 95–8, 101, 225–6 negative/positive stress 93–5 optimism 99, 174–5 personality types 98–99 physical effects 84, 226 physical exercises 102, 201–2, 226 rational emotive therapy 104, 226 Index rats 83, 92–5 reality 83, 96–8 relaxation techniques 95–6, 101–2, 171, 202 Social Readjustment Rating Scale 86–8 social support 89–90, 99, 106–7 sources 86–92 survey 64, 77, 97–8 time-management programmes 104–5, 107–12 trading-competence standards 225–6 two-component theory 97–8, 162, 225–6 worry 97–9, 103, 159–2, 191, 195–6, 225–6 Yerkes-Dodson law 94–5, 98, 123, 225–6 stress of living, concepts 85–91 stressors, concepts 85, 225–6 subliminal advertising 126 Success (Bland) 214 success depression, concepts 211–12 ‘successful’ men 214–16 suicides 21, 204, 209–10, 212–17 see also depression Sun Tzu 179 Sunday Times, The 10–11, 77 sunk cost theory, concepts 7, 142–3, 229 superphysical imagination, imagine-success concepts 190 support concepts 22, 27, 30, 56, 68–72, 223 surveys 64, 77, 97–8, 207–8 Sutherland, Stuart 11 SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats), concepts 33–4, 109–10, 233 sympathetic nervous system, concepts 91 synchronicity law, warrior trader Kyokushin 184, 190 ‘systematic vincivism’ systems 13–17, 22–3, 71, 108, 111–16, 127, 169–70, 232 Index Tactical Model of Trading Competence (Tactical MOT) 47–58, 102, 118–19, 160–2, 190 see also Comprehensive Model tactics, concepts 49–58, 72, 118–19, 159, 160–2 Taoism 180 teaching issues Chief Wizard 2–8, 15, 78, 132, 135 failings 2–8, 11–12, 15, 78–81 see also learning technical analysis 2, 5, 8–12, 22–31, 48, 66–71, 107, 111–16, 220, 222–4 concepts 2, 5, 8–10, 12, 22, 25–31, 65–6, 69, 112–14, 220, 222–4 essentials 22, 25–30, 68–71 purposes 22, 68 Relative Strength Index 69, 224 see also charts; Volume Spread Analysis technical indicators, concepts 114 technical skills, learning 167–8 technical systems, concepts 13–17, 22–3, 108, 111–16, 127, 141, 146, 169–171, 232 technical trading rules, concepts 118–19 ‘Ten Commandments of Trading’ 26–7 Thaler, Richard 136 Tharp, Van 13, 45, 114 Theroux, Henry David 19 theta brain waves 187 thoughts emotions 152–3, 155–9, 165, 168–71 warrior trader Kyokushin 184 threats, SWOT analysis 33–4, 109 three Ms of successful trading, trading competences 19–23 time-management programmes, stress management 104–5, 107–12 timeliness issues, SMART 111, 192 Times, The 75 tipsters 40, 125 Toffler, Alvin 63–4 top-down investment approaches, concepts 66 tops 118, 128 275 traders/trading 9–23, 26–30, 47–82, 91, 107–19 biases 7–12, 29, 31, 34, 41, 49, 78, 115–16, 123–49, 158–9, 205–7, 227–9 Budo Zen 21, 53, 100, 179–218 business plans 107–19, 200, 220, 226–8 cognitive dissonance 141–2, 229 compulsive trading 173, 202–9 concepts 1–2, 8–43 diaries 58, 72–4, 118–19, 167, 200 emotions 13–14, 47–8, 59–62, 97–8, 102, 118, 151–77, 209, 230 entertainment value 19–20, 21, 58, 60, 71, 220 gambling contrasts 16–17, 21, 70, 197–8, 202–9, 215 general trading rules 116–18 halo effect 131–6, 146, 229 imagine-success concepts 35–6, 53, 189–90 ‘letting your winners run and cutting your losses short’ 55, 64, 71, 143, 145, 148 losses 9–10, 16, 20–1, 26–7, 52, 55, 64–7, 90–1, 96–106, 185–6 personality types 24–5, 98–9, 157, 207–9 poor predictions 39–40, 77, 125, 206–7, 209 record-keeping needs 21, 30, 116, 119, 163 responsibilities 16–17, 183, 192–3 returns expectations 66–75 simple rehearsals 50, 200–1 skills 11–12, 13–43, 45–82, 186–9, 219–33 standards 19, 38, 168, 219–33 stress 10, 50, 63–5, 78, 86, 225–6 styles 58–66, 74 successful traders 9–23, 26–30, 45–82 technical trading rules 116–118 tools 45, 72, 114, 126–7, 208, 232 276 traders/trading (continued ) trading competences 9–23, 26–30, 45–82, 107–19 types 24–5, 32–3, 55, 98–100, 108–10, 159, 208–9 warrior traders 179–218 see also financial risk taking trading centring triangle 186, 188 Trading Chaos (Williams) 61 trading competences 8, 12, 13–43, 45–82, 107–19, 180–233 biases standards 227–30 business plans 107–116, 159–61, 192, 200, 220, 226–8 Comprehensive MOT 45–82, 200 concepts 8, 12, 13, 180–233 continuing-education standards 233 criteria 219–33 data-management standards 232 discipline 9–10, 17–19, 21, 29–30, 35–6, 42, 56, 58–65, 108, 116–19, 162, 219 emotional-biases standards 230 experts 16, 36–8, 45, 49–50 financial-and-risk-management standards 231 learning issues 15–19, 36–8, 77–81, 111, 220–33 market-analysis standards 220, 222–4 method concepts 9–10, 13–14, 19, 21–3, 42, 108, 111–16, 219–33 mind concepts 20–3, 26–30, 221 money management 13–14, 19, 21, 22–3, 29, 31, 65, 70 objectiveness needs 18, 26, 31–2, 71, 141–2, 169–76 perceptual-biases standards 229 record-keeping needs 21, 30, 116, 119, 163 rehearsals 32, 34–8, 49–50, 119, 162, 200–1 standards 19, 38, 168, 219–33 steps 15–19 stress-management standards 225–6 Index technical-analysis standards 220, 222–4 three Ms of successful trading 19–23 Trading for a Living (Elder) 19 trading schools, Internet 24–5 trading systems see technical systems trailing stops, concepts 55, 71–2, 231 training issues 1–8, 11–12, 25–6, 31–8, 77–8 alchemy courses Chief Wizard 2–8, 15, 132, 135 continuing-education needs 75–81, 233 costs 16 courses and seminars 32–3, 79–81, 243–5 failings 2–8, 11–12, 14–15 international comparisons 2–3 Internet 24–5 plans 81, 233 qualifications 77, 135–8, 208–9 Strategic MOT 81, 233 trading-competence standards 233 tutors 2–8, 11–12, 15, 80–1, 133, 135, 243–5 UK 2–8, 67, 75, 243–5 USA 2–3, 15, 24–5 see also learning Trait Theory 98 transparency needs, self-management 59–60, 169, 230 trends 22–3, 27, 56, 65–72, 114, 146, 222–4 see also moving averages trial-and-error modes, effective learning 14–15 trust concepts, ACTION acronym 35–6, 54, 186–9 Turner, Vernon Kitabu 61 tutors 2–8, 11–12, 15, 80–1, 133, 135, 243–5 Chief Wizard 2–8, 15, 133, 135 failings 2–8, 11–12, 15, 78–81, 135 see also training Tversky, A 23, 38–9, 90, 136–138, 143–4 Twain, Mark 123, 128 Index two-component theory, concepts 97–9, 162, 225–6 two-to-one rule, concepts 29–30, 56 type A/B/Cs, personality characteristics 98–99 Type Theory 98 ‘U’ formation, chart patterns 28, 222–4 UK homeowning traders 32–3 London Stock Exchange 77, 135, 207, 208–9, 233 training issues 2–8, 67, 75–81, 243–5 uncertainty, beliefs 10 Undeclared Secrets Drive the Stock Market, The (Williams) 3, 6, 34–5 Understanding Emotions (Oatley and Jenkins) 151 unit trusts 11, 207 unlearning issues, concepts 1, 32 uptrends 22, 27, 68 USA behavioural finance 135–8 economists 77 September 11th, 2001 terrorist attacks 20, 86 training issues 2–3, 15, 24–5 ‘V’ formation, chart patterns 28, 222–4 vacation benefits, self-sabotage minimisation 201 validity bias, concepts 115 valuation approaches, fundamental analysis 67 value investors, concepts 66 Vickery, James 126 vision 48, 52, 62, 185, 190 volatility concepts 113 volume concepts 5–7, 9, 22–3, 32–5, 49, 65–72, 112–13 Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) 5–7, 9, 32–5, 65–72 see also technical analysis 277 ‘W’ formation, chart patterns 28, 222–4 Wagenaar, W.A 23, 164 walking benefits 60, 193–4, 202, 226 Wall Street Crash 78 Wallach, M.A 138–9 Walsch, Neale Donald 60 warrior traders, Budo Zen 35–6, 179–218 Way of the Warrior-Trader, The (McCall) 35–6, 180, 194 weaknesses 33–4, 114, 233 websites see Internet Whitney, Richard 214 Wilder, W 70 Williams, Bill 61 Williams, Tom 3, 5–6, 9–10, 34–5, 69, 112, 146 winning phase, compulsive trading 202–3, 205–9 wisdom 41–2, 62, 166–7 wishful thinking, concepts 124 working capital ratio, definition 68 working memory, ACT Architecture 37–8 workplace stressors concepts 86–7 see also stress World Bank 75 worry 95–9, 103, 159–62, 191, 195–6, 225–6 Worst Accident in the World, The (Hawkes) 195 Wyckoff method 32–4, 112, 140, 142, 220, 223 Wyckoff, Richard D 32–4, 112, 140, 142, 220, 223 Wycoff VSA model Yerkes-Dodson law, arousal levels 94–5, 97, 123, 225–6 ‘Yes–No’ questions, events 63 Zazen (seated meditation) 60, 101, 170, 179–80, 186–7, 202, 226 Zen 21, 53, 101, 179–218 ‘The Zone’ 32, 53, 60, 189 .. .Financial Risk Taking WILEY TRADING SERIES Financial Risk Taking: An Introduction to the Psychology of Trading and Behavioural Finance Mike Elvin Single Stock Futures: A Trader’s Guide Patrick... minimise the influence of beliefs are examined To understand the process and influence of these factors on trading behaviour is the first step to trading competence and freedom from the cycle of loss The. .. Cataloging-in-Publication Data Elvin, Mike Financial risk taking : an introduction to the psychology of trading and behavioural finance / Mike Elvin p cm Includes bibliographical references and index

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