Edited by Pieter Kok, Derik Gelderblom, John O. Oucho & Johan van Zyl Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za Compiled฀by฀the฀Integrated฀Regional฀and฀Rural฀Development฀Research฀Programme,฀ Human฀Sciences฀Research฀Council฀ Published฀by฀HSRC฀Press Private฀Bag฀X9182,฀Cape฀Town,฀8000,฀South฀Africa www.hsrcpress.ac.za ©฀2006฀Human฀Sciences฀Research฀Council First฀published฀2006 All฀rights฀reserved.฀No฀part฀of฀this฀book฀may฀be฀reprinted฀or฀reproduced฀or฀utilised฀in฀ ฀ any฀form฀or฀by฀any฀electronic,฀mechanical,฀or฀other฀means,฀including฀photocopying฀ ฀ and฀recording,฀or฀in฀any฀information฀storage฀or฀retrieval฀system,฀without฀permission฀ ฀ in฀writing฀from฀the฀publishers. ISBN฀0-7969-2113-X Cover฀by฀Flame Text฀design฀by฀Christabel฀Hardacre฀ Print฀management฀by฀comPress Distributed฀in฀Africa฀by฀Blue฀Weaver฀Marketing฀and฀Distribution PO฀Box฀30370,฀Tokai,฀Cape฀Town,฀7966,฀South฀Africa Tel:฀+27฀+21฀701-4477 Fax:฀+27฀+21฀701-7302 email:฀orders@blueweaver.co.za Distributed฀worldwide,฀except฀Africa,฀by฀Independent฀Publishers฀Group 814฀North฀Franklin฀Street,฀Chicago,฀IL฀60610,฀USA www.ipgbook.com฀ To฀order,฀call฀toll-free:฀1-800-888-4741 All฀other฀inquiries,฀Tel:฀+1฀+312-337-0747฀ Fax:฀+1฀+312-337-5985 email:฀Frontdesk@ipgbook.com Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za Contents List฀of฀figures฀and฀tables฀฀฀v Frequently฀used฀acronyms฀and฀abbreviations฀฀฀ix Chapter฀1฀ Introduction฀ Pieter฀Kok,฀Derik฀Gelderblom฀and฀Johan฀van฀Zyl฀฀฀1 PART฀I:฀ The฀context฀of฀migration฀from฀a฀continental฀and฀regional฀perspective Chapter฀2฀ Internal฀and฀international฀migration฀within฀Africa฀ Aderanti฀Adepoju฀฀฀26 Chapter฀3฀ Cross-border฀migration฀and฀regional฀initiatives฀in฀ ฀ managing฀migration฀in฀southern฀Africa฀ John฀O.฀Oucho฀฀฀47 Chapter฀4฀ Historical฀background฀to฀South฀African฀migration฀ Marie฀Wentzel฀and฀Kholadi฀Tlabela฀฀฀71 Chapter฀5฀ Migration฀in฀South฀Africa฀in฀comparative฀perspective฀ Barbara฀A.฀Anderson฀฀฀97 PART฀II:฀ Findings฀from฀South฀African฀survey฀data฀ Chapter฀6฀ Migration฀and฀health฀in฀South฀Africa฀ Niël฀Roux฀and฀Louis฀van฀Tonder฀฀฀120 Chapter฀7฀ Evaluating฀the฀2001–02฀HSRC฀Migration฀Survey฀ Johan฀van฀Zyl฀฀฀147 Chapter฀8฀ Contemporary฀South฀African฀migration฀patterns฀and฀intentions ฀ Marie฀Wentzel,฀Johan฀Viljoen฀and฀Pieter฀Kok฀฀171 Chapter฀9฀ Migrant฀motivations฀and฀capacities฀in฀relation฀to฀key฀migration฀streams฀ Catherine฀Cross฀฀฀205 Chapter฀10฀ The฀limits฀and฀possibilities฀of฀migrant฀networks ฀ Derik฀Gelderblom฀and฀Whynie฀Adams฀฀฀227 Chapter฀11฀ Migration฀intentions฀in฀South฀Africa฀and฀elsewhere฀ Gordon฀F.฀De฀Jong฀and฀Michele฀Steinmetz฀฀฀249 Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za PART฀III:฀A฀theoretical฀synthesis Chapter฀12฀ Towards฀a฀synthetic฀model฀of฀migration฀ Derik฀Gelderblom฀฀฀268 APPENDICES Appendix฀A฀ The฀history฀and฀methodology฀of฀the฀HSRC฀surveys฀ Pieter฀Kok,฀Johan฀van฀Zyl฀and฀Jacques฀Pietersen฀฀฀292 Appendix฀B฀ GIS฀as฀a฀tool฀in฀migration฀research฀ Gina฀Weir-Smith฀and฀S’bonisile฀Zama฀฀฀307 Appendix฀C฀ Applying฀the฀multiregional฀projection฀model฀using฀census฀migration฀data:฀ ฀ a฀theoretical฀basis Jacques฀Ledent฀and฀Sulaiman฀Bah฀฀฀327 Appendix฀D฀ Provincial฀levels฀of฀satisfaction฀with฀service฀delivery:฀ ฀ an฀analytical฀framework฀based฀on฀interprovincial฀migration Oumar฀Bouare฀and฀Johanna฀Nkau฀฀฀343 About฀the฀authors฀฀฀355 Index฀฀฀359 Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za ฀v List฀of฀figures฀and฀tables Figures Figure฀1.1฀The฀world’s฀foreign-born฀population฀฀฀2 Figure฀1.2฀Global฀net฀migration฀patterns฀฀฀3 Figure฀1.3฀Specific฀policies฀on฀immigration฀฀฀4 Figure฀1.4฀Some฀specific฀policies฀on฀emigration฀฀฀5 Figure฀1.5฀The฀world:฀urban฀and฀rural฀populations฀(actual฀and฀projected)฀฀฀11 Figure฀1.6฀Trends฀in฀urbanisation฀levels฀of฀selected฀southern฀African฀countries฀(actual฀and ฀ ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀projected)฀฀฀11 Figure฀1.7฀Government฀policies฀on฀internal฀migration฀into฀metropolitan฀areas฀in฀the฀more ฀ ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀developed฀regions฀of฀the฀world฀฀฀12 Figure฀1.8฀Government฀policies฀on฀internal฀migration฀into฀metropolitan฀areas฀in฀the฀ less฀ ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀developed฀regions฀of฀the฀world฀฀฀13 Figure฀3.1฀Average฀number฀of฀people฀employed฀on฀South฀African฀mines฀by฀country฀of฀origin, ฀ ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀1986–1992฀฀฀58 Figure฀5.1฀Comparative฀growth฀rates฀per฀1฀000฀population฀฀฀103 Figure฀5.2฀Estimated฀net฀migration฀rates฀per฀1฀000฀population฀฀฀103 Figure฀5.3฀Legal฀immigration,฀emigration฀and฀net฀migration฀rates฀for฀South฀Africa฀ ฀ ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀per฀1฀000฀population฀฀฀104 Figure฀5.4฀Net฀migrants฀to฀South฀Africa,฀from฀residual฀method฀and฀from฀official฀data฀฀฀105 Figure฀5.5฀Percentage฀of฀populations฀in฀urban฀areas฀฀฀108 Figure฀5.6฀Growth฀rates฀of฀urban฀populations฀(per฀1฀000฀population)฀฀฀109 Figure฀5.7฀Estimated฀rates฀of฀net฀rural–urban฀migrations฀(per฀1฀000฀population)฀฀฀110 Figure฀5.8฀Percentages฀of฀Africans฀and฀of฀non-Africans฀in฀urban฀areas฀฀฀111 Figure฀5.9฀Livings฀conditions฀for฀various฀South฀African฀groups฀in฀1994฀and฀1999฀฀฀112 Figure฀B1฀Intra-provincial฀migration฀in฀the฀Eastern฀Cape,฀2001฀฀฀308 Figure฀B2฀Intra-provincial฀migration฀movements฀towards฀the฀Cape฀magisterial฀district,฀2001฀฀฀310 Figure฀B3฀Intra-provincial฀migration฀to฀Gauteng,฀2001฀฀฀311 Figure฀B4฀Migrants฀to฀Gauteng฀by฀province฀of฀origin,฀2001฀฀฀312 Figure฀B5฀Comparison฀of฀employment฀and฀unemployment฀in฀1996฀and฀2001฀฀฀312 Figure฀B6฀Inter-provincial฀migration฀to฀KwaZulu-Natal,฀2001฀฀฀313 Figure฀B7฀Inter-provincial฀migration฀to฀the฀Western฀Cape,฀2001฀฀฀314 Figure฀B8฀Migrants฀to฀Western฀Cape฀by฀province฀of฀origin,฀2001฀฀฀314 Figure฀B9฀Inter-provincial฀migration฀to฀Gauteng,฀KwaZulu-Natal฀and฀Western฀Cape,฀2001฀฀฀315 Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za vi฀฀ Figure฀B10฀Comparing฀inter-provincial฀migration฀in฀Gauteng,฀2001฀฀฀316 Figure฀B11฀Copying฀features฀from฀one฀layer฀to฀another฀฀฀318 Figure฀B12฀Example฀of฀an฀origin฀table฀with฀all฀the฀calculated฀fields฀฀฀319 Figure฀B13฀Example฀of฀a฀flow฀table฀฀฀320 Figure฀B14฀Example฀of฀data฀directories฀฀฀321 Figure฀B15฀Example฀of฀opening฀files฀in฀Flowmap฀฀฀321 Figure฀B16฀People฀flows฀from฀selected฀magisterial฀districts฀to฀East฀London,฀2001฀฀฀322 Figure฀B17฀Redrawing฀or฀erasing฀the฀screen฀฀฀323 Figure฀B18฀Migration฀flows฀from฀selected฀magisterial฀districts฀to฀East฀London,฀2001฀฀฀324 Tables Table฀1.1฀Selected฀southern฀African฀countries’฀immigrant฀populations฀฀ ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀(international฀migrant฀stock)฀฀฀9 Table฀1.2฀Indicators฀of฀spatial฀population฀distribution฀for฀selected฀southern฀African฀countries฀฀฀9 Table฀3.1฀Typology฀of฀current฀international฀migration฀in฀southern฀Africa,฀ ฀ ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀by฀typical฀characteristics฀and฀country฀of฀origin/destination฀฀฀50 Table฀3.2฀Total฀population,฀migrant฀stock฀and฀emigration฀and฀migration฀policies฀in฀ ฀ ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀southern฀African฀countries฀1990–2000฀฀฀53 Table฀3.3฀Sample฀of฀immigrants฀to฀South฀Africa฀by฀country฀of฀origin฀and฀country฀ ฀ ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀of฀previous฀residence฀(weighted฀population฀figures)฀฀฀54 Table฀3.4฀Employment฀on฀South฀African฀gold฀mines฀by฀country฀of฀origin฀1986–1992฀฀฀ 58 Table฀3.5฀Refugees฀and฀asylum฀seekers฀in฀southern฀Africa฀by฀origin฀and฀host฀country,฀2001฀฀฀61 Table฀4.1฀Numbers฀of฀Africans฀in฀urban฀areas฀between฀1914฀and฀1960฀฀฀ 84 Table฀6.1฀Health฀outcomes฀as฀considered฀by฀migration฀phase฀฀฀ 122 Table฀6.2฀Frequency฀distribution฀of฀respondents฀by฀migration฀status฀and฀ ฀ ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀selected฀socio-demographic฀characteristics฀฀฀127 Table฀6.3฀Self-rated฀health฀status฀฀฀ 128 Table฀6.4฀Percentages฀indicating฀knowledge฀of฀having฀contracted฀specific฀diseases฀฀฀ 129 Table฀6.5฀Primary฀reason฀for฀move฀to฀current฀place฀of฀residence฀฀฀ 130 Table฀6.6฀Pre-migration฀knowledge฀of฀health฀and฀public฀services,฀฀ ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀by฀socio-demographic฀characteristics฀฀฀131 Table฀6.7฀Migrants฀indicating฀improvement฀in฀specific฀health฀indicators฀฀฀ 133 Table฀6.8฀Percentage฀of฀migrants฀indicating฀sickness฀before฀and฀after฀moving฀฀฀ 135 Table฀6.9฀Logistic฀regression฀analysis฀for฀self-rating฀of฀health฀฀฀136 Table฀6.10฀Logistic฀regression฀analysis฀for฀knowledge฀of฀health฀and฀public฀services฀ ฀ ฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀before฀previous฀move฀฀฀138 Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za ฀vii Table฀6.11฀Logistic฀regression฀analysis฀for฀specific฀health฀indicators฀฀฀139 Table฀7.1฀HSRC฀Migration฀Survey:฀total฀non-response฀rates฀by฀population฀group฀฀฀ 148 Table฀7.2฀HSRC฀Migration฀ Survey:฀item฀non-response฀for฀monthly฀income฀฀฀148 Table฀8.1฀Cross-border฀migrants฀by฀country฀of฀origin฀(last฀move฀only)฀฀฀ 175 Table฀8.2฀Employment฀status฀of฀various฀migrant฀categories฀฀฀ 176 Table฀8.3฀Reasons฀for฀not฀working,฀by฀migrant฀category฀฀฀ 176 Table฀8.4฀Occupational฀status,฀by฀respondent฀group฀฀฀ 177 Table฀8.5฀Migrants’฀monthly฀income,฀by฀migrant฀type฀฀฀ 178 Table฀8.6฀Cross-border฀migrants’฀length฀of฀stay฀in฀current฀area฀฀฀178 Table฀8.7฀Cross–border฀migrants’฀reasons฀for฀leaving฀previous฀area฀of฀residence฀฀฀ 179 Table฀8.8฀Main฀reasons฀for฀moving,฀by฀migrant฀grouping฀฀฀ 180 Table฀8.9฀Cross-border฀migrants’฀reasons฀for฀selecting฀destination฀area฀฀฀ 181 Table฀8.10฀Cross-border฀migrants’฀prior฀knowledge฀of฀destination฀area฀฀฀ 181 Table฀8.11฀Cross-border฀migrants’฀information฀sources฀on฀destination฀area฀฀฀182 Table฀8.12฀Cross-border฀migrant฀decision฀makers฀for฀move฀to฀current฀area฀฀฀ 182 Table฀8.13฀Level฀of฀satisfaction฀with฀present฀circumstances,฀by฀respondent฀group฀฀฀ 183 Table฀8.14฀Internal฀migrants’฀province฀of฀origin฀(before฀last฀move)฀฀฀ 185 Table฀8.15฀Employment฀status฀of฀various฀migrant฀categories฀฀฀ 185 Table฀8.16฀Reasons฀for฀not฀working,฀by฀migrant฀category฀฀฀185 Table฀8.17฀Distribution฀of฀occupational฀status,฀by฀respondent฀group฀฀฀ 186 Table฀8.18฀Distribution฀of฀respondents’฀monthly฀income฀฀฀ 187 Table฀8.19฀Internal฀migrants’฀period฀of฀stay฀in฀current฀area฀฀฀ 187 Table฀8.20฀Internal฀migrants’฀reasons฀for฀leaving฀previous฀area฀฀฀ 188 Table฀8.21฀Internal฀migrants’฀reasons฀for฀selecting฀destination฀area฀฀฀ 188 Table฀8.22฀Respondents’฀main฀reasons฀for฀moving฀฀฀ 189 Table฀8.23฀Internal฀migrants’฀prior฀knowledge฀of฀destination฀area฀฀฀190 Table฀8.24฀Internal฀migrants’฀information฀sources฀regarding฀destination฀area฀฀฀ 190 Table฀8.25฀Internal฀migrant฀decision฀makers฀for฀move฀to฀current฀area฀฀฀ 190 Table฀8.26฀Satisfaction฀levels฀regarding฀present฀circumstances,฀by฀respondent฀type฀฀฀ 191 Table฀8.27฀Current฀province฀and฀possible฀destination฀in฀next฀five฀years฀฀฀ 193 Table฀8.28฀‘Very฀likely’฀interprovincial/international฀migration฀in฀next฀five฀years฀฀฀ 194 Table฀8.29฀Statistical฀details฀of฀explanatory฀variables฀used฀in฀the฀MNA฀฀฀ 195 Table฀8.30฀Migration฀intentions,฀by฀age฀group฀฀฀196 Table฀8.31฀Migration฀intentions,฀by฀current฀marital฀status฀฀฀ 196 Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za viii฀฀ Table฀8.32฀Migration฀intentions,฀by฀education฀฀฀197 Table฀8.33฀Migration฀intentions,฀by฀life฀satisfaction฀฀฀ 197 Table฀8.34฀Migration฀intentions,฀by฀existence฀or฀not฀of฀migrant฀network฀฀฀ 198 Table฀8.35฀Migration฀intentions,฀by฀value-expectancy฀for฀‘urban฀environment’฀฀฀ 198 Table฀8.36฀Migration฀intentions,฀by฀value-expectancy฀for฀‘wealth฀and฀comfort’฀฀฀ 198 Table฀8.37฀Migration฀intentions,฀by฀value-expectancy฀for฀‘affiliation฀and฀morality’฀฀฀ 199 Table฀9.1฀Scale฀of฀migration฀activity฀in฀South฀Africa,฀by฀African฀population฀฀฀ 208 Table฀9.2฀Year฀of฀move฀to฀area฀of฀interview฀฀฀ 209 Table฀9.3฀Proportions฀of฀lifetime฀flow฀taking฀place฀via฀major฀streams฀฀฀210 Table฀9.4฀Type฀of฀area฀where฀born,฀by฀migration฀stream฀฀฀ 213 Table฀9.5฀Previous฀residence฀area฀type,฀by฀migration฀stream฀฀฀ 214 Table฀9.6฀Reasons฀for฀leaving฀last฀stop฀area,฀by฀migration฀stream฀฀฀ 215 Table฀9.7฀Reasons฀for฀choosing฀to฀move฀to฀current฀area฀฀฀ 216 Table฀9.8฀Capacities:฀demographic฀and฀economic฀factors฀฀฀218 Table฀9.9฀Economic฀activity,฀land฀access฀and฀labour฀migrancy฀฀฀ 219 Table฀10.1฀Comparison฀between฀market฀and฀network฀exchange฀฀฀ 229 Table฀10.2฀Immediate฀family฀or฀close฀friends฀at฀destination฀฀฀ 242 Table฀10.3฀Immediate฀family฀or฀close฀friends฀at฀destination,฀by฀income฀and฀gender฀฀฀ 242 Table฀10.4฀Previous฀migrations:฀main฀source฀of฀information฀about฀destination฀฀243 Table฀10.5฀Intended฀migrations:฀main฀source฀of฀information฀about฀destination฀฀฀ 243 Table฀10.6฀Previous฀migrations:฀main฀source฀of฀information฀฀฀ 243 Table฀10.7฀Intended฀migrations:฀main฀source฀of฀information฀฀฀ 243 Table฀10.8฀Respondents’฀network฀connections฀in฀previous฀and฀current฀locations฀฀฀244 Table฀11.1฀Rural฀and฀urban฀residents’฀intentions฀to฀migrate฀฀฀ 253 Table฀11.2฀Intentions฀to฀migrate,฀by฀selected฀individual฀and฀household฀฀฀ 254 Table฀11.3฀Logistic฀regression฀of฀intentions฀to฀migrate:฀total฀sample฀฀฀258 Table฀11.4฀Logistic฀regression฀of฀intentions฀to฀migrate:฀rural฀and฀urban฀samples฀฀฀ 262 Table฀A1฀Realisation฀results฀by฀survey฀company฀฀฀ 303 Table฀A2฀Realisation฀results฀in฀terms฀of฀original฀stratification฀฀฀ 303 Table฀B1฀File฀structure฀example฀฀฀ 318 Table฀B2฀ Example฀of฀a฀flow฀table฀฀฀319 Table฀D1฀Questionnaire฀item฀to฀be฀used฀throughout฀the฀provinces฀of฀a฀country฀฀฀ 346 Table฀D2฀Example฀of฀proportional฀distribution฀of฀respondent฀categories฀฀฀ 347 Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za ฀ix Frequently฀used฀acronyms฀and฀฀abbreviations BBC฀ British฀Broadcasting฀Corporation CENPOPS฀ Centre฀for฀Population฀Studies฀(University฀of฀Pretoria) COMESA฀ Common฀Market฀for฀Eastern฀and฀Southern฀Africa DBSA฀ Development฀Bank฀of฀Southern฀Africa EA฀ enumerator฀area GIS฀ geographical฀information฀system(s) GNP฀ gross฀national฀product HSRC฀ Human฀Sciences฀Research฀Council฀(South฀Africa) ILO฀ International฀Labour฀Office฀(UN) IMP฀ International฀Migration฀Policy IOM฀ International฀Organization฀for฀Migration LDRs฀ less-developed฀regions฀(of฀the฀world) MDRs฀ more-developed฀regions฀(of฀the฀world) MIDA฀ Migration฀for฀Development฀in฀Africa MIDSA฀ Migration฀Dialogue฀for฀Southern฀Africa MNA฀ multivariate฀nominal-scale฀analysis MPI฀ Migration฀Policy฀Institute NRC฀ Native฀Recruiting฀Corporation NEPAD฀ New฀Partnership฀for฀Africa’s฀Development OHS฀ October฀Household฀Survey฀ PRB฀ Population฀Reference฀Bureau฀(USA) SADC฀ Southern฀African฀Development฀Community SADCC฀ Southern฀African฀Development฀Coordination฀Conference SAMHS฀ South฀African฀Migration฀and฀Health฀Survey SAMP฀ Southern฀African฀Migration฀Project SANSA฀ South฀African฀Network฀of฀Skills฀Abroad SDI฀ Spatial฀Development฀Initiative Stats฀SA฀ Statistics฀South฀Africa฀ UN฀ United฀Nations UNDP฀ United฀Nations฀Development฀Program UNECA฀ United฀Nations฀Economic฀Commission฀for฀Africa Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za x฀฀ UNFPA฀ United฀Nations฀Population฀Fund UNHCR฀ United฀Nations฀High฀Commissioner฀for฀Refugees Unisa฀ University฀of฀South฀Africa฀ WHO฀ World฀Health฀Organization฀(UN) WNLA฀ Witwatersrand฀Native฀Labour฀Association฀(Wenela) ZAR฀ Zuid฀Afrikaansche฀Republiek฀ Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za . Population฀Reference฀Bureau฀(USA) SADC฀ Southern African฀Development฀Community SADCC฀ Southern African฀Development฀Coordination฀Conference SAMHS฀ South African Migration and Health฀Survey SAMP฀ Southern African Migration Project SANSA฀. Historical฀background฀to South African migration Marie฀Wentzel and Kholadi฀Tlabela฀฀฀71 Chapter฀5฀ Migration in South Africa in comparative฀perspective฀ Barbara฀A.฀Anderson฀฀฀97 PART฀II:฀ Findings฀from South African฀survey฀data฀ Chapter฀6฀. help฀ themselves.฀Migrating฀illegally฀is฀a฀wager,฀which฀they฀might฀lose,฀but฀they฀know฀ they฀will฀definitely฀lose฀if฀they฀do฀not฀migrate.฀It฀is,฀indeed,฀economic฀risk-taking,฀ if฀of฀an฀unconventional฀kind.฀(Nicholson฀2002:฀4) Internal migration and urbanisation It฀was฀pointed฀out฀earlier฀that฀the฀level฀of migration from Africa has฀been฀ surprisingly฀low, and this฀was฀ascribed฀to฀high฀poverty฀levels and a฀consequent฀lack฀ of฀mobility.฀The฀evidence฀for฀this฀conclusion฀can฀however฀be฀regarded฀as฀somewhat฀ ambiguous฀(see,฀for฀example,฀Hatton฀&฀Williamson฀2002).฀Chapter฀12฀by฀Derik฀ Gelderblom฀provides฀an฀explanation฀for฀differences in income฀selectivity:฀the฀ threshold฀income฀where migration becomes฀affordable฀varies฀from฀time฀to฀time and from฀place฀to฀place.฀When฀the฀costs฀of migration are฀low฀relative฀to฀incomes,฀income฀ selectivity฀is฀also฀low, and if migration costs฀are฀high฀relative฀to฀incomes,฀income฀ selectivity฀is฀high.฀Although฀the฀policy฀implications฀of฀such฀trends฀are฀clear,฀it฀is฀ not฀at฀all฀clear฀whether฀or฀how฀development฀policy and planning฀would฀be฀able฀to฀ address฀the฀issue฀of฀out -migration from฀rural฀areas฀among฀the฀better฀skilled฀(see฀also฀ Kok,฀O’Donovan,฀Bouare฀&฀Van฀Zyl฀2003). Recurrent฀changes in views฀on migration- related฀problems฀were฀reported฀by฀ the฀United฀Nations฀(2003)฀for฀the฀governments฀of South Africa and four฀of฀its฀ immediate฀neighbours.฀Tables฀1.1 and 1.2,฀based฀on฀these฀data,฀give฀the฀context฀for฀ these฀views in terms฀of฀the฀underlying฀magnitudes฀for฀the฀reported฀years฀from฀1976฀ to฀2003. Table฀1.1฀(based฀on฀United฀Nations฀2003฀figures)฀shows฀the฀estimated฀numbers and proportions฀of฀former฀immigrants฀with฀respect฀to฀five฀selected southern African฀ countries.฀The฀estimated฀international฀migrant฀stock in Namibia฀increased฀from฀ 42฀000฀(4.5%) in 1976฀to฀143฀000฀(7.5%) in 2003.฀The฀same฀applies฀to฀Botswana,฀ whose฀foreign-born฀population฀also฀grew฀consistently฀from฀13฀000฀(1.6%) in 1976฀ to฀52฀000฀(3.0%) in 2003.฀On฀the฀other฀hand, South Africa, ฀which฀accommodates฀ by฀far฀the฀largest฀estimated฀number฀of฀immigrants in the฀sub-region,฀has฀seen฀a฀ proportional฀decrease in these฀numbers฀from฀5.5฀per฀cent in 1986฀to฀a฀significantly฀ lower฀3.0฀per฀cent in 2003.฀ Whereas฀39฀per฀cent฀of Africa s฀total฀population฀lived in urban฀areas in 2003,฀by฀ 2030฀the฀continent’s฀urban฀areas฀are฀likely฀to฀accommodate฀the฀majority฀(54%)฀of฀ its฀people฀(United฀Nations฀2004).฀As฀far฀as฀internal฀population฀redistribution in the฀sub-region฀is฀concerned,฀Table฀1.2฀(also฀based฀on฀United฀Nations฀2003฀figures)฀ shows฀that฀the฀rural฀populations฀of฀Botswana,฀Lesotho and South Africa are฀ purported฀to฀be฀currently฀experiencing฀negative฀growth,฀while฀Botswana,฀Lesotho฀ and Swaziland฀experienced฀rapid฀urbanisation฀between฀1976 and 2003.฀Botswana฀ was฀particularly฀affected฀by฀urbanisation฀processes,฀with฀the฀level฀of฀urbanisation฀ increasing฀from฀13฀per฀cent in 1976฀to฀50฀per฀cent in 2003. 4 Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za 10฀฀ •฀ migration in south and southern africa Table฀1.1฀Selected southern African฀countries’฀immigrant฀populations฀฀ (international฀migrant฀stock) ฀ Botswana