The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Climate Change Committee Report 2009 Edited by Larry Band, Voit Gilmore Distinguished Professor, Department of Geography, and Director, Institute for the Environment David Salvesen, Deputy Director, Center for Sustainable Community Design, Institute for the Environment ii Cover photos: (Clockwise from left) Hurricane Bonnie over the North Carolina coast (photo courtesy NOAA); Wildfire blazes in Hyde County, North Carolina, June 2008 (Photo by Chris Curry, The Virginian-Pilot); A child enjoying the North Carolina coast; A nearly dried-up Falls Lake in Durham County, North Carolina, during the summer of 2007 (photo by Kevin Greene) iii Preface This report addresses the significance of climate change to North Carolina The report was developed by a committee of faculty and staff at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in response to a specific request from the University of North Carolina General Administration (UNCGA) and the North Carolina State Senate The request was transmitted to the Institute for the Environment (IE) by Provost Bernadette Gray-Little as received from UNC-GA, and was followed up for clarification with UNC-GA and Legislative personnel Each campus was asked to produce a report on global warming impacts on North Carolina independently, without inter-campus collaboration In this report, we emphasize the areas of research strength at Carolina without extensively addressing areas that are better suited to other campuses As an example, agricultural impacts are minimally discussed, assuming North Carolina State University will provide a more extensive treatment The report includes a brief review of climate change science, an assessment of climate change trends and likely impacts on North Carolina, as well as the potential to mitigate and adapt to those impacts Given the short time frame to prepare the report (August – November), we were not asked to conduct any new research, but instead to summarize and synthesize faculty and scientific community knowledge on this significant and wide ranging issue The report responds to the request to incorporate faculty members’ individual and collective assessment of climate change for the state, including statements of the degree of uncertainty and disagreement on specific impacts or potential policy options We address major issues of climate change uncertainty, current trends in climate, and their consistency with expectations of climate change models We put the scientific understanding and popular conception of global climate change into the perspective of North Carolina’s geography, and discuss specific vulnerabilities to the coastal region, the mountains and the Piedmont We identify opportunities for the state to be proactive in working to mitigate the impacts of climate change, while preparing an adaptive strategy to increase our resilience to expected change We highlight policy actions that have “co-benefits” to economic, environmental and health conditions, even if climate change is ultimately smaller than expected iv Similar efforts inside and outside North Carolina Other states and regions in the United States have carried out detailed, long term assessments of climate change threats and opportunities For example, Maryland recently completed a 16 month study (http://www.mdclimatechange.us/index.cfm) of climate change impacts Virginia is in the process of conducting a similar study over a one-year time period A consortium of northeastern states carried out an in-depth two year study of potential climate change and vulnerability for that region (http://www.northeastclimateimpacts.org) In North Carolina, the Legislative Commission on Global Climate Change, established in 2005, is in the process of developing a report with a complementary scope (particularly in the areas of mitigation and adaptation) We reference material from that effort and note that one of our committee members, Professor Richard Andrews, is a member of the Commission In addition, the North Carolina Climate Action Plan Advisory Group, established in 2006, recently released its report which also emphasizes mitigation (reduction or avoidance) of climate change The state should be proactive in coordinating with neighboring states on an in-depth regional study of climate change, while also extending the depth of its activity focused on North Carolina Report Development Process The IE coordinated two meetings with faculty selected from multiple schools at UNC Chapel Hill, including Arts and Sciences, Medicine, Law, Public Health and Government Faculty were contacted on the basis of their individual expertise and were asked to examine the range of significant climate change impacts expected in North Carolina, as well as the potential for policy, management, and technical approaches to mitigate and prepare for impacts The faculty climate change committee contributed substantially to the development of the report by writing and coordinating the contributions of other faculty in their fields We note that there are many more faculty members at UNC Chapel Hill carrying out high quality research and service in related areas that could have contributed to the report, but were not included given the time and resource constraints of the process Report Organization The report is organized into five chapters following the preface Chapter provides an overview of climate change science Chapter covers environmental impacts of climate change in North v Carolina, including potential effects on freshwater resources, sea level and coastal water quality, air quality, and ecosystems Chapter investigates the impacts of climate change on environmental systems and human health Chapter concentrates on mitigation and adaptation A number of suggestions for policy, management and research options for North Carolina to consider are offered in the first four chapters Chapter summarizes cross-cutting recommendations vi Contributors Pete Andrews Thomas Willis Lambeth Distinguished Professor of Public Policy and Chair Department of Public Policy Lawrence E Band Voit Gilmore Distinguished Professor Department of Geography Director Institute for the Environment Philip Berke Professor Department of City and Regional Planning Director, Center for Sustainable Community Design Institute for the Environment Phillip Bromberg Bonner Professor of Medicine Scientific Director, Center for Environmental Medicine, Asthma and Lung Biology School of Medicine Jeffery Brubaker Graduate Student Department of City and Regional Planning Raymond Burby Professor Emeritus Department of City and Regional Planning Gregory W Characklis Associate Professor Department of Environmental Sciences & Engineering Martin Doyle Associate Professor Department of Geography Director, Center for Landscape Change and Health Institute for the Environment David R Godschalk Professor Emeritus Department of City and Regional Planning Bernadette Gray-Little Executive Vice Chancellor and Provost Office of the Executive Vice Chancellor and Provost Donald T Hornstein Aubrey L Brooks Professor of Law School of Law Chip Konrad Associate Professor Department of Geography Deputy Director, NOAA Southeast Regional Climate Center Hillel S Koren Health Scientist Human Studies Facility, U.S Environmental Protection Agency Rick Luettich Professor Department of Marine Sciences and Institute of Marine Sciences Director, Institute of Marine Sciences Jacqueline MacDonald Assistant Professor Department of Environmental Sciences & Engineering Brent McKee Mary and Watts Hill, Jr Distinguished Professor and Chair Department of Marine Sciences David McNelis Research Professor, Environmental Sciences and Engineering and Director, Center for Sustainable Energy, Environment and Economic Development Institute for the Environment vii Charles Mitchell Assistant Professor Biology Daniel Rodriguez Associate Professor Department of City and Regional Planning Rachel Noble Associate Professor Department of Marine Sciences Director, Morehead City Field Site Institute for the Environment Tony Rodriguez Associate Professor Department of Marine Sciences Hans Paerl William R Kenan Professor Department of Marine Sciences and Institute of Marine Sciences David Peden Professor of Pediatrics and Medicine Director, Center for Environmental Medicine, Asthma and Lung Biology School of Medicine Bob Peet Professor Department of Biology Mike Piehler Assistant Professor Department of Marine Sciences Robert K Pinschmidt, Jr Deputy Director Institute for Advanced Materials, Nanoscience, and Technology David Salvesen Deputy Director Center for Sustainable Community Design Institute for the Environment Richard Smith Mark L Reed III Distinguished Professor Department of Statistics and Operations Research Conghe Song Associate Professor Department of Geography Donna Surge Associate Professor Department of Geological Sciences David Weber Professor Departments of Epidemiology, Medicine and Pediatrics Gillings School of Global Public Health and School of Medicine Jose Rial Professor Department of Geological Sciences Jason West Assistant Professor Department of Environmental Sciences & Engineering Justin Ries Assistant Professor Department of Marine Sciences Richard Whisnant Professor of Public Law and Government School of Government Peter Robinson Professor Department of Geography Director NOAA Southeast Regional Climate Center Peter S White Professor Department of Biology Director North Carolina Botanical Garden viii Table of Contents Preface iii Contributors vi List of Figures ix Acronyms and Chemical Formulas xi Executive Summary xii Chapter Overview of Global Climate Change Chapter Environmental Impacts 29 Chapter Public Health Effects of Climate Change 68 Chapter Mitigation and Adaptation 94 Chapter Recommendations 149 Appendices A: Hurricane and drought scales B: Climate models C: Glossary D: Uncertainties due to economic assumptions E: Potential for solar energy technology 156 158 159 163 169 Endnotes 171 ix List of Figures Figure 1.1 Global human-caused greenhouse gas emissions sources in 2004 Figure 1.2 Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide Figure 1.3 Share of total human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, by sectors Figure 1.4 The greenhouse effect Figure 1.5 Global temperature land-ocean anomaly (°C), 1880-2007 Figure 1.6 Glacial retreat, South Cascade Glacier, Washington Figure 1.7 Scenarios for GHG emissions from 2000 to 2100 .14 Figure 1.8 Statewide average annual temperatures in the Southeast snce 1895 .16 Figure 1.9 Trends in annual total precipitation in North Carolina, by region 17 Figure 1.10 Monthly drought by climate division in North Carolina .19 Figure 1.11 Number of category 1-4 hurricanes affecting NC during the 20th Century 20 Figure 1.12 Cyclone strength and sea surface temperature 21 Figure 1.13 The strongest cyclones appear to be getting stronger 22 Figure 1.14 Estimating the effect of climate change on tropical storms .23 Figure 1.15 Plots of Atlantic hurricane counts, major hurricanes, and U.S landfall hurricanes 24 Figure 1.16 Stations used in computing climate normals 25 Figure 1.17 Temperature projections with 95% probability intervals 26 Figure 1.18 Precipitation projections with 95 percent probability intervals 27 Figure 2.1 Figure 2.2 Figure 2.3 Figure 2.4 Figure 2.5 Figure 2.6 Figure 2.7 North Carolina drought monitor rating of drought severity in October 2007 31 Trends in seasonal precipitation (in inches) from the 1895-2007 33 Central Coastal Plain of North Carolina 38 Sea level rise due to thermal expansion and increase in ocean mass 40 Areas of coastal North Carolina with elevation less than one meter .41 Contaminant loads from intense storms (hurricanes) in North Carolina 47 Examples of harmful CyanoHAB blooms worldwide 52 Figure 3.1 Figure 3.2 Figure 3.3 Figure 3.4 Potential health effects of climate variability and change .70 Composition of atmosphere by gas 71 Hardiness zone maps, 1990 and 2006 77 Excess mortality plotted against temperature for the 2003 heat wave in France 90 Figure 4.1 Electricity use in North Carolina compared to other states 98 Figure 4.2 Energy use in North Carolina (1977-2000) 100 Figure 4.3 North Carolina energy use by sector 100 Figure 4.4 Breakdown of NC energy costs by state agency (FY 2002) 101 Figure 4.5 Economic analysis of energy efficiency measures for a new home 101 Figure 4.6 Wind energy potential in North Carolina 103 Figure 4.7 Energy sites in North Carolina 109 Figure 4.8 Hatteras Village after Hurricane Isabel of 2003 119 Figure 4.9 Vehicle miles traveled on interstate highways in North Carolina 120 Figure 4.10 Per capita carbon emissions in North Carolina, by sector 121 Figure 4.11 Transportation mode used for the journey to work in North Carolina 122 Figure 4.12 Walking and driving trips to the commercial center of a new urban neighborhood 124 Figure 4.13 Top 10 most costly hurricanes in US history (insured losses, 2005 dollars) 128 x Figure 4.14 Underwriting gain or loss in Florida homeowners insurance, 1992-2007 130 Figure 4.15 Dam sites in North Carolina 138 Figure 4.16 CAPAG mitigation option recommendations ranked 141 Figure D1 Lost property values due to sea-level rise induced by climate change 166 Figure D2 Effects of assumptions about discount rates on present value of property lost 167 List of Tables Table 1.a Types of uncertainty 11 Table 1.b Likelihood scale 11 Table 3.1 Effects of weather and climate on infectious diseases in North America 79 Table 3.2 Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Infectious Diseases in North Carolina 81 Table 3.3 Examples of multilevel adaptive measures for some anticipated health outcomes 93 Table 4.1 Energy bills and household energy .99 Table 4.2 Potential energy production from animal wastes in NC 104 Table 4.3 Renewable energy potential in NC 105 Table 4.4 Options for mitigating GHG emissions in North Carolina 140 Table 4.5 Mitigation options in energy, transport and land use 144 Table B1 Climate Models Used for Future Projections 157 Table D1 Lost Property Values Due to Sea-Level Rise for Four North Carolina Counties 166 166 Figure D1: Counties for which Bin et al (2007) analyzed lost property values due to sea-level rise induced by climate change Reproduced from Bin et al New Hanover Dare Carteret Bertie TOTAL 2030-low $94.83 $653.93 $68.33 $4.58 $821.67 2030-mid $98.50 $732.54 $72.54 $5.46 $909.04 2030-high $103.00 $818.41 $79.44 $6.38 $1,007.23 2080-low $230.37 $1,950.14 $185.05 $14.24 $2,379.80 2080-mid $298.33 $3,300.64 $350.75 $20.84 $3,970.56 2080-high $508.76 $10,206.32 $717.81 $37.68 $11,470.57 Table D1 Lost Property Values Due to Sea-Level Rise, As Predicted by Bin et al (2007) for Four North Carolina Counties 167 Figure D2 Effects of assumptions about discount rates on computation of the present value of property lost due to future climate change and associated sea-level rise in four North Carolina counties in the years 2030 and 2080 under three different scenarios The scenarios are as follows: low, 11 cm rise in sea level; mid, 16 cm rise in sea level; high, 21 cm rise in sea level 168 Appendix E The potential for solar energy technology 169 2050     2050 – 15 TW new production needed (without conservation)               Energy Source: Sun/Wind/Biomass Nuclear Hydroelectric Coal Gas Oil Renewable energy potential: Gr Biomass – TW Wind – TW Solar – 120,000 TW* Nuclear energy potential – TW  2005 consumption 15 TW – need to replace much of the 85% fossil fuel contribution “Basic Research Needs for Solar Energy Utilization.” Report of the Basic Energy Sciences Workshop on Solar Energy Utilization April 18 – 21, 2005 170 Endnotes Oreskes, N (2004) Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change Science, 306, 5702, 1686 National Academy of Sciences (2008) Understanding and Responding to Climate Change, 2008 edition 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Utilitarian Trips within a Neo-Traditional Neighborhood Transportation Research Record, 1985, 154-161 202 Transportation Research Board (2003a) Freight Capacity for the 21st Century TRB Special Report 271 203 Transportation Research Board (2003b) Integrating Freight Facilities and Operations with Community Goals NCHRP Synthesis 320 204 Government Accountability Office (2008) Freight Transportation: National Policy and Strategies Can Help Improve Freight Mobility Report to the Ranking Member, Committee on Environment and Public Works, U.S Senate.:January 2008 183 184 180 Rodrigue, Jean-Paul (2004) Freight, Gateways and Mega-Urban Regions: the Logistical Integration of the BostWash Corridor Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, 95, 2,, 147-161 206 Brookings Institution 2008 207 ACEEE 2005 208 North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Division of Land Resources http://www.dlr.enr.state.nc.us/pages/damsafetyprogram.html 209 CAPAG 2008 Figure 1-4, p 1-17 210 Pew Center on Global Climate Change (2008) Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards http://www.pewclimate.org/what_s_being_done/in_the_states/vehicle_ghg_standard.cfm 211 North Carolina Climate Action Plan Advisory Group (CAPAG) 2008 Recommended Mitigation Options for Controlling Greenhouse Gas Emissions Final Report, October 2008, p 1-17 212 United Nation Human Rights Council (2008) Human Rights and Climate Change Promotion And Protection Of All Human Rights, Civil, Political, Economic, Social And Cultural Rights, Including The Right To Development http://ap.ohchr.org/documents/E/HRC/resolutions/A_HRC_7_L_21_Rev_1.doc 205 ... committee of faculty and staff at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in response to a specific request from the University of North Carolina General Administration (UNCGA) and the North Carolina. .. content of freshwater and coastal waters can increase the concentration of, and exposure to, harmful pathogens Public Health Impacts of Climate Change in North Carolina The effects of climate change. .. consistent with the predictions of climate change models, discussed later The predictions of climate change models and recent observations indicate that greater incidence of weather extremes may