Free download from www.hsrc p ress.ac.za Free download from www.hsrc p ress.ac.za 1VCMJTIFECZ)43$1SFTT 1SJWBUF#BH9$BQF5PXO4PVUI"GSJDB XXXITSDQSFTTBD[B ¥)VNBO4DJFODFT3FTFBSDI$PVODJM 'JSTUQVCMJTIFE "MM SJHIUT SFTFSWFE /P QBSU PG UIJT CPPL NBZ CF SFQSJOUFE PS SFQSPEVDFE PS VUJMJTFE JO BOZ GPSN PS CZ BOZ FMFDUSPOJD NFDIBOJDBM PS PUIFS NFBOT JODMVEJOH QIPUPDPQZJOH BOE SFDPSEJOH PS JO BOZ JOGPSNBUJPO TUPSBHF PS SFUSJFWBM TZTUFN XJUIPVU QFSNJTTJPO JOXSJUJOHGSPNUIFQVCMJTIFST *4#/ $PQZFEJUJOHCZ,BSFO1SFTT 5ZQFTFUCZ3PCJO5BZMPSBOE+FOOZ8IFFMEPO $PWFSEFTJHOCZ'BSN%FTJHO 1SJOUNBOBHFNFOUCZDPN1SFTT %JTUSJCVUFEJO"GSJDBCZ#MVF8FBWFS 10#PY5PLBJ$BQF5PXO4PVUI"GSJDB 5FM 'BY FNBJMPSEFST!CMVFXFBWFSDP[B XXXPOFXPSMECPPLTDPN %JTUSJCVUFEJO&VSPQFBOEUIF6OJUFE,JOHEPNCZ&VSPTQBO%JTUSJCVUJPO4FSWJDFT&%4 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.FBTVSJOHSFDFOUDIBOHFTJO4PVUI"GSJDBOJOFRVBMJUZBOEQPWFSUZVTJOH  BOEDFOTVTEBUB  .VSSBZ-FJCCSBOEU-BVSB1PTXFMM1SBOVTILB/BJEPPBOE.BUUIFX8FMDI  &WPMVUJPOPGUIFMBCPVSNBSLFUm  )BSPPO#IPSBUBOE.PSOÊ0PTUIVJ[FO  1VCMJDTQFOEJOHBOEUIFQPPSTJODFUIFUSBOTJUJPOUPEFNPDSBDZ  4FSWBBTWBOEFS#FSH  5SBEFMJCFSBMJTBUJPOBOEMBCPVSEFNBOEJO4PVUI"GSJDBEVSJOHUIFT  -BXSFODF&EXBSET  %PFTDJUZTUSVDUVSFDBVTFVOFNQMPZNFOU 5IFDBTFPG$BQF5PXO  4BOESJOF3PTQBCFBOE)BSSJT4FMPE  $SJNFBOEMPDBMJOFRVBMJUZJO4PVUI"GSJDB  (BCSJFM%FNPNCZOFTBOE#FSL¸[MFS Free download from www.hsrc p ress.ac.za  1PWFSUZBTTFUBDDVNVMBUJPOBOETIPDLTJO4PVUI"GSJDB&WJEFODFGSPN   ,XB;VMV/BUBM  +VMJBO.BZ  *OUFSOBMMBCPVSNJHSBUJPOBOEIPVTFIPMEQPWFSUZJOQPTUBQBSUIFJE4PVUI  "GSJDB  %PSSJU1PTFMBOE%BOJFMB$BTBMF  )BMGNFBTVSFTSFWJTJUFE5IF"/$TVOFNQMPZNFOUBOEQPWFSUZSFEVDUJPO  HPBMT  $IBSMFT.FUI -JTUPGDPOUSJCVUPST *OEFY Free download from www.hsrc p ress.ac.za W -JTUPGUBCMFT 5BCMF $POUSJCVUJPOTUPHSPXUICZMBCPVSDBQJUBMBOE5'1 5BCMF %FDPNQPTJUJPOPGHSPXUIJOSFBMPVUQVUJOUPDPOUSJCVUJPOTCZGBDUPST  PGQSPEVDUJPOBOEUFDIOPMPHJDBMQSPHSFTTFWJEFODFCZQSJODJQBM  FDPOPNJDTFDUPSTm 5BCMF $MBTTJGJDBUJPOPGFDPOPNJDTFDUPSTBDDPSEJOHUPDIBOHFTJOFGGFDUJWF  QSPUFDUJPOSBUFT 5BCMF "WFSBHFQFSDFOUBHFDIBOHFTJOMBCPVSQSPEVDUJWJUZBOESFBM MBCPVSDPTUJOUIFUISFFBHHSFHBUFNJOJOHTFDUPSTPG4PVUI"GSJDB m 5BCMF 5FTUJOHGPSTQJMMPWFSFGGFDUTJO5'1 5BCMF 1FSDBQJUBQVCMJDBUJPOVOJUPVUQVUCZVOJWFSTJUZm 5BCMF $IBOHFTJOQPWFSUZCFUXFFOBOE 5BCMF $IBOHFTJOQPWFSUZCZQSPWJODF 5BCMF $IBOHFTJOJOFRVBMJUZCFUXFFOBOE 5BCMF *OFRVBMJUZXJUIJOBOECFUXFFOQPQVMBUJPOHSPVQT 5BCMF 1FSDFOUBHFQPQVMBUJPOTIBSFTCZSBDFJO 5BCMF 4FOTJUJWJUZPGQPWFSUZBOEJOFRVBMJUZDPNQBSJTPOTUPTBNQMJOH  XFJHIUT 5BCMF 4FOTJUJWJUZPGQPWFSUZBOEJOFRVBMJUZDPNQBSJTPOTUPDPOTVNQUJPO  PGIPNFHSPXOGPPE 5BCMF 4FOTJUJWJUZPGQPWFSUZBOEJOFRVBMJUZDPNQBSJTPOTUPDIBOHFTJOUIF  VSCBOSVSBMQSJDFEJGGFSFOUJBM 5BCMF $PSSFMBUFTPGMPHQFSDBQJUBDPOTVNQUJPO 5BCMF 1PWFSUZIFBEDPVOUTGPSWBSJPVTDPVOUFSGBDUVBMTJOBOE 5BCMF $PNQBSJTPOTPGJOFRVBMJUZGSPNUPVTJOHUIF(JOJ   DPFGGJDJFOU 5BCMF *OFRVBMJUZDPNQBSJTPOTXJUIJOBOECFUXFFOQPQVMBUJPOHSPVQT  VTJOHUIF5IFJMJOEFY 5BCMF *ODPNFBOEQPQVMBUJPOTIBSFTm 5BCMF %JTQBSJUZSBUJPTXIJUFTUPPUIFSQPQVMBUJPOHSPVQT 5BCMF 1PQVMBUJPOHSPVQDPNQPTJUJPOPGQFSDBQJUBJODPNFEFDJMFT m 5BCMF /BUJPOBMQPWFSUZMFWFMTBOE 5BCMF 1PWFSUZMFWFMTCZQPQVMBUJPOHSPVQ 5BCMF 1PWFSUZTIBSFTCZQPQVMBUJPOHSPVQ 5BCMF 1PWFSUZMFWFMTCZQSPWJODFFYDMVEJOH[FSPJODPNFT 5BCMF 1PWFSUZTIBSFTCZQSPWJODFFYDMVEJOH[FSPJODPNFT 5BCMF 6SCBOBOESVSBMQPWFSUZMFWFMT 5BCMF 6SCBOBOESVSBMQPWFSUZTIBSFT Free download from www.hsrc p ress.ac.za 107&35:"/%10-*$:*/1045њ"1"35)&*%4065)"'3*$" WJ 5BCMF 5ZQFPGEXFMMJOHCZQSPWJODFBOE 5BCMF "DDFTTUPXBUFSCZQSPWJODFBOE 5BCMF &OFSHZGPSMJHIUJOHCZQSPWJODFBOE 5BCMF &OFSHZGPSDPPLJOHCZQSPWJODFBOE 5BCMF "DDFTTUPTBOJUBUJPOCZQSPWJODFBOE 5BCMF "DDFTTUPSFGVTFSFNPWBMCZQSPWJODFBOE 5BCMF )PVTFIPMETFSWJDFTBDDFTTCZJODPNFRVJOUJMFFYDMVEJOH[FSPFT  BOE 5BCMF" %FTDSJQUJWFTUBUJTUJDTPO[FSPBOENJTTJOHWBMVFTJOUIFBOE DFOTVTFT 5BCMF" %FTDSJQUJWFTUBUJTUJDTPO[FSPBOENJTTJOHQFSDFOUBHFWBMVFTJOUIF BOEDFOTVTFTCZQSPWJODFQPQVMBUJPOHSPVQBOEVSCBO SVSBMBSFB 5BCMF" BOE(JOJDPFGGJDJFOUTBDSPTTBOVNCFSPGEJGGFSFOUEBUB  BTTVNQUJPOT 5BCMF" 1PWFSUZMFWFMTCZSBDF 5BCMF" 1PWFSUZMFWFMTCZSBDF 5BCMF" *ODPNFRVJOUJMFTFYDMVEJOH[FSPFT 5BCMF" *ODPNFRVJOUJMFTFYDMVEJOH[FSPFT 5BCMF" *ODPNFRVJOUJMFTJODVEJOH[FSPFT 5BCMF" *ODPNFRVJOUJMFTJODVEJOH[FSPFT 5BCMF 5IF4PVUI"GSJDBOMBCPVSGPSDFBOE 5BCMF 4OBQTIPUPGUIF4PVUI"GSJDBOMBCPVSGPSDFCSPBEMZEFGJOFE  BOE 5BCMF 4OBQTIPUPGUIF4PVUI"GSJDBOMBCPVSGPSDFCSPBEMZEFGJOFECZ  SBDFBOE 5BCMF #SPBEMBCPVSGPSDFQBSUJDJQBUJPOSBUFTJO4PVUI"GSJDBm 5BCMF &NQMPZNFOUBOEMBCPVSGPSDFHSPXUIm 5BCMF 4FDUPSBMFYQFSJFODFTPGFNQMPZNFOUBOEJOGPSNBMTFDUPS   FNQMPZNFOUHSPXUIm 5BCMF 5ZQFPGDPOUSBDUPGFNQMPZFECZHFOEFSBOESBDF 5BCMF &NQMPZNFOUBOEVOFNQMPZNFOUCZSBDFBOEHFOEFSBOE    5BCMF &NQMPZNFOUBOEVOFNQMPZNFOUCZIJHIFTUMFWFMPGFEVDBUJPO  BOE 5BCMF 4FDPOEBSZBOEUFSUJBSZVOFNQMPZNFOUSBUFTCZSBDFBOE  5BCMF &NQMPZNFOUBOEVOFNQMPZNFOUQFSGPSNBODFTCZBHFHSPVQ m 5BCMF 'PSNBMBOEJOGPSNBMTFDUPSFNQMPZNFOUm 5BCMF 'PSNBMBOEJOGPSNBMFNQMPZNFOUm 5BCMF 4FDUPSBMDPNQPTJUJPOPGFNQMPZNFOUDIBOHFm Free download from www.hsrc p ress.ac.za WJJ 5BCMF 4LJMMTCSFBLEPXOPGFNQMPZNFOUCZTFDUPSBOE 5BCMF 4QBUJBMEJTUSJCVUJPOPGFNQMPZNFOUBOE 5BCMF 6OFNQMPZNFOUSBUFTCZQSPWJODFBOE 5BCMF %JTDPVSBHFEXPSLTFFLFSTQFSDFOUBHFCSFBLEPXOTBOE  5BCMF" 4OBQTIPUPGUIF4PVUI"GSJDBOMBCPVSGPSDFCSPBEMZEFGJOFECZ  SBDFBOE 5BCMF" &NQMPZNFOUFTUJNBUFTm 5BCMF $POTPMJEBUFEHFOFSBMHPWFSONFOUTQFOEJOHCZGVODUJPOm  mBOEm 5BCMF 4PDJBMTQFOEJOHCZJODPNFHSPVQBOE 5BCMF 4PDJBMTQFOEJOHCZSBDFHSPVQBOE 5BCMF 4PDJBMTQFOEJOHCZSFHJPOUZQFBOE 5BCMF &TUJNBUFTPGDPODFOUSBUJPOJOEFYBOE,BLXBOJQSPHSFTTJWJUZJOEFY  GPS4PVUI"GSJDBOTPDJBMTQFOEJOHQSPHSBNNFT 5BCMF $PODFOUSBUJPOJOEJDFTGPSQVCMJDTQFOEJOHPOFEVDBUJPOBOEIFBMUI  JOTBNQMFTPGEFWFMPQJOHDPVOUSJFTT 5BCMF 5FBDIFSSFTPVSDFTBOENBUSJDQBTTSBUFTPWFSBEFDBEFCZGPSNFS  TDIPPMSBDFDBUFHPSZ 5BCMF 1BTTSBUFBOENBUSJDBHHSFHBUFJOUIF8FTUFSO$BQFCZGPSNFS  EFQBSUNFOUBOEQPWFSUZRVJOUJMF 5BCMF 4VNNBSZUBSJGGTUBUJTUJDTJODMVEJOHBEWBMPSFNFRVJWBMFOUT 5BCMF .FBTVSFTPGTFDUPSBMQSPUFDUJPO 5BCMF 'BDUPSCJBTPGOFUUSBEFJONBOVGBDUVSJOHm 5BCMF 4PVSDFTPGGBDUPSHSPXUIJONBOVGBDUVSJOHBWFSBHFBOOVBM DIBOHF 5BCMF .BOEBUFEGBDUPSSFUVSOTGSPNUSBEFMJCFSBMJTBUJPOmBOE  GVMMMJCFSBMJTBUJPOGSPN 5BCMF" .BOEBUFEGBDUPSSFUVSOTGSPNUSBEFMJCFSBMJTBUJPOCZSFHJPOm   5BCMF" .BOEBUFEXBHFTVOEFSGVMMMJCFSBMJTBUJPOCZSFHJPOGSPN 5BCMF 5IFQPQVMBUJPOPGUIF$BQF.FUSPQPMJUBO"SFB 5BCMF %JTTJNJMBSJUZJOEJDFT$BQF5PXO6SCBO"SFB 5BCMF 5SBOTQPSUNPEFTCZQPQVMBUJPOHSPVQQFSDFOUBHFVTF$BQF5PXO  5BCMF $PNNVUJOHUJNFTBOEDPNNVUJOHDPTUTCZQPQVMBUJPOHSPVQ  $BQF5PXO 5BCMF 6OFNQMPZNFOUBOEJODPNFCZQPQVMBUJPOHSPVQ$BQF5PXO  -*450'5"#-&4 Free download from www.hsrc p ress.ac.za 107&35:"/%10-*$:*/1045њ"1"35)&*%4065)"'3*$" WJJJ 5BCMF 5IFJOGMVFODFPGJOEJWJEVBMIPVTFIPMEBOEOFJHICPVSIPPE   DIBSBDUFSJTUJDTPOVOFNQMPZNFOUQSPCBCJMJUJFT 5BCMF" 7BSJBCMFTVTFEUPFTUJNBUFVOFNQMPZNFOUQSPCBCJMJUJFT 5BCMF" 5IFDPSSFMBUJPONBUSJY 5BCMF /FHBUJWFCJOPNJBMSFHSFTTJPOT 5BCMF 0-4SFHSFTTJPOT 5BCMF *OFRVBMJUZXJUIJOBOECFUXFFOSBDJBMHSPVQT 5BCMF $SJNFBOEJOFRVBMJUZCFUXFFOSBDJBMHSPVQT 5BCMF 3FQPSUJOHJOTFMFDUFEDSJNFDBUFHPSJFT 5BCMF $PSSFDUJOHGPSNJTSFQPSUJOHJOSFTJEFOUJBMCVSHMBSZ 5BCMF *OFRVBMJUZJODBUDINFOUBSFB 5BCMF "SNFESPCCFSZBOENVSEFS 5BCMF" 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5IFFYUFOUPGUFNQPSBSZMBCPVSNJHSBUJPOBDSPTTIPVTFIPMET  m 5BCMF "GSJDBONJHSBOUXPSLFSTCZHFOEFSZFBSTBOEPMEFS 5BCMF 3FNJUUBODFTSFDFJWFEJOSVSBM"GSJDBONJHSBOUIPVTFIPMET 5BCMF 5IFFDPOPNJDTUBUVTPGNJHSBOUBOEOPONJHSBOUSVSBM"GSJDBO  IPVTFIPMET 5BCMF &NQMPZNFOUBOEFBSOFEJODPNFJONJHSBOUBOEOPONJHSBOUSVSBM  "GSJDBOIPVTFIPMETm 5BCMF .BJOTPVSDFPGJODPNFTVQQPSUJOSVSBM"GSJDBOIPVTFIPMET  5BCMF *OEJWJEVBMSFNJUUBODFTBOEFBSOJOHTBNPOHSVSBM"GSJDBOT Free download from www.hsrc p ress.ac.za JY 5BCMF 1BSUJDJQBUJPOSBUFTBOEUIFXPSLJOHBHFQPQVMBUJPO 5BCMF A)BMWJOHVOFNQMPZNFOUCZmTPNFQPTTJCJMJUJFT 5BCMFB /VNCFSTPGQFPQMFUIPVTBOETCFMPXWBSJPVTQPWFSUZMJOFT 5BCMFC /VNCFSTPGQFPQMFUIPVTBOETCFMPXWBSJPVTQPWFSUZMJOFT 5BCMFD 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BOEQPPSFTUQSPWJODFTGPS$FOTVTBOE$FOTVT 'JHVSF 6SCBOBOESVSBMDVNVMBUJWFEJTUSJCVUJPOGVODUJPOTBUQSJDFT  $FOTVTBOE$FOTVT [...]... put, we are interested in identifying the main factors that have constrained output growth and, in particular, employment growth in South Africa, especially during the past ten years Based on this analysis, we also offer some preliminary thoughts on what economic and social policies could do to engender more dynamic and broadly shared economic growth in the future We begin with a review and decomposition... limits the growth potential of South Africa s industry Furthermore, given the rising importance of total factor productivity for growth in South Africa, the chapter examines the long-run determinants of technological progress in this country Specifically, we consider evidence on the importance of the factors identified by modern (endogenous) growth theory in determining South Africa s growth performance... the impact of macroeconomic policy and financial markets on investment in physical capital and economic growth Given the importance of institutions for capital accumulation, we also discuss some institutional features of labour and output markets, as well as those governing international external trade flows The core finding is that labour market distortions are present – and specifically that the strong... decomposition of the long-run performance in terms of real output and employment creation Specifically, we decompose South Africa s growth into its primary sources, in order to identify any underlying structural changes The evidence obtained in this way reveals that not only have growth and employment creation in South Africa been subject to a long-term, structural decline, but the sources of economic growth... countries often shows a changing pattern of growth, beginning with a heavy reliance on capital growth and, more broadly, factor accumulation, then shifting to TFP-led growth with rising per capita real GDP South Africa s aggregate growth experience largely mirrors that of many developing countries, although growth in South Africa has been markedly slower during the 1990s than in comparator countries (see... date: investment in physical capital stock The evidence suggests that rates of return on capital and the user cost of capital are fundamental to the determination of investment in fixed capital stock, but exercise their influence subject to the powerful impact of uncertainty Moreover, uncertainty appears to be a crucial determinant not only of investment in physical capital stock, but also of international... number of different determinants are considered, emphasis is placed on the contribution of investment in human capital The evidence suggests that what counts increasingly is the quality, not just the quantity, of human capital investment Finally, we consider the implications of these findings for economic and social policy geared towards more dynamic growth of output and employment, and a more rapid diffusion... knowledge gaps and potential avenues of further policy research that, if addressed, could help to develop and implement more effective economic policies for broadly shared growth An important caveat is that the chapter focuses on and discusses mainly macroeconomic, market-related, and institutional determinants of and constraints on growth, largely ignoring the complex distribution and poverty issues... comprehensive socio-economic accounting of the growth-cumequity experience of South Africa would need to combine this analysis of factors of growth with the findings of these microeconomic studies Growth in South Africa, 1970–2000: Evidence and interpretation Growth decomposition1 Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za International evidence from developed countries has often pointed to the significant contribution... contribution of factor inputs.2 In effect, real output growth in developed countries is 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