XAY DONG MO HlNH PHAT TRI^N KINH T£ VI$T NAM TRONG THOI KY O£N 2020 Bui Tat Thang* Trong sd 34(7/2010), Tap chi da gidi thieu cdc plidn: I. Bdi canh; 2. Yeu cdu phdt trien nhanh han vd ben vdng han nen kinh te Viet Nam. Trong sd ndy, mdi cdc ban don xem phdn tiep theo. 3. Phat trien vdfi hif u suat cao Mud'n phat trien phai cd ngudn Iffc. Ngudn Iffc cd the tff cd (dat dai, tai nguyen, con ngffdi, vd'n lie'ng), vay mffpn tff ben ngoai, do ngffdi nffdc ngoai mang den lam an d nffdc ta. Trong kinh te hpc, ngudn Iffc thffdng, khan hiem, hffu ban. Vi vay, sff dung ngudn Iffc de phat trien phai dam bao sao cho cd hieu suat cao nhat, mdi dan vi gi*i tri sff dung d dau ra cua san pham can tieu ton it nhat cac ngudn Iffc d dau vao de tao ra nd. Thffc te cho thay, nhffng nen kinh te cd sff khdi dau an tffpng (td'c dp tang trffdng kinh te, gia tang cua san xuat cdng nghiep cao; ddi sd'ng cua dan cff dffge cai thien, xa hgi va chinh tri dn dinh ), nhffng thdi gian duy tri lai khdng dffge bao lau. Sau mdt thdi gian ngan ngui, nen kinh te td ra "hut hoi", "mat da", tdc dp tang trffdng cham dan, tham chi chuyen sang suy thoai va rai vao trang thai thieu nang. Dd la tinh trang phat trien khdng hieu qua va khdng ben vffng. Mdt trong nhffng diem cdt ldi cua trang hud'ng nay la nen kinh te da tang trudng khdng phai dffa tren tang nang suat. Phat trien va phat trien cd hieu suat la hai khai niem khac nhau. Neu lgi tffc qudc dan hoac tdng san pham trong nffdc (GDP) tinh tren dau ngffdi tang hen tuc trong mdt thdi gian tffOng dd'i dai va trong qua trinh phat trien, cd sff chuyen dich CP cau dang ke thi cd the coi dd la mpt nen kinh te phat trien. Trong qua trinh nay, tff ban dffpc tich luy, dat dai, tai nguyen dffpc khai khan dffa vao sff dung va lao dpng dffpc ddng vien ngay cang nhieu vao cac linh vffc san xuat. Ngoai ra, cac yeu to' san xuat cung dffpc di chuyen tff cac nganh cd nang suat thap nhff ndng nghiep, sang cac nganh cd nang suat cao hpn nhff cdng nghiep, dich vu, tao sff chuyen dich ca cau GDP va cac mat khac cua nen kinh te. Hien tffpng va sff phat trien nay la qua trinh GDP hoac san Iffgng (output) tang len nhd dgng vien ngay cang nhieu cac yeu to' san xuat (input). Tuy nhien, neu ngi dung phat trien chi cd vay thi chffa the ggi la mot nen kinh te phat trien cd hieu suat. Nen kinh te dffge xem la phat trien cd hieu suat khi do gia tang cua nd nhieu ban la tdng phan tang dau vao, tffc cac yeu to' san xuat. Phan nhieu ban dd cd dffge do ap dung ngay cang nhieu tien bp khoa hgc cdng nghe, tri thffc quan ly kinh doanh, tff ban va tai nguyen dung cd hieu suat han va trinh dp lao ddng ngay cang cao ban nhd day manh giao due va dao tao Trong phffong phap tinh toan tang trffdng (growth accounting) phan cdn lai nay dffpc gpi la nang suat tdng hpp cua tat ca cac yeu td san xuat (Total Factor Productivity TFP)" (Trdn Vdn Thg 1997). Bui Tat Thang, Pho giao su, Tie'n si, Vien Chien lifoc Phat trien. $635(8+9/2010) QUAN LY KINH IE troi NGHIEN CUU - TRAO 001 XAY DUNG MO HiNH PHAT TRI^N KINH TE VIET NAM TRONG THdl KY OEN 2020 Van dd hieu suat khdng chi la yeu cau mang tinh kinh te ma cdn la van de thudc ban chat cua phat trien ben vffng (md'i quan he giffa phat trien kinh te va con ngffdi vdi cac ngudn tai nguyen va mdi trffdng thien nhien). Nhin lai sff phat trien cua the ky XX, ngffdi ta nhan thay, ben canh nhffng thanh tffu tuyet vdi ve tien bg khoa hgc cdng nghe, ve phat trien sffe san xuat va cua cai, loai ngffdi da phai ddi mat vdi mot hien thffc khac nghiet: dan sd bung nd, ngudn tai nguyen can kiet, mdi trffdng tdi te di nhanh chdng. Hoat dpng con ngffdi da pha hoai nghiem trpng CO sd sinh tdn va phat trien cua chinh minh, tien dd tdt dep rat cd the bi pha buy trong mpt sdm mdt chieu. Trong sff suy xet sau sac ve nguy cO sd'ng cdn cua loai ngffdi, tff tffdng chien Iffpe phat trien ben vffng da ra ddi. (He Yongping , Feng Pengzhi, 1998, tr. 10). Nhan loai neu cff tie'n trien vdi mffc tieu hao nhff hien nay, trong mpt thdi gian khdng lau, cac ngudn tai nguyen tren trai dat se hoan toan can kiet. Theo nhieu nghien cffu, trong sd cac ngudn tai nguyen khoang vat, sat chi cd the duy tri khoang 173 nam, than ehffng 150 nam, nhdm dffpc 55 nam, ddng dffpc 48 nam, vang 29 nam. Ddi vdi tai nguyen sinh vat, rffng ram 170 nam nffa se bi ddn bet. Dang quan ngai la, rffng mffa nhiet ddi cd the se het nhSn sau 40 nam. Dgng vat vdi so' Iffgng hang tram nghin loai dang nhanh chdng bi tuyet diet. Do chiem dung dat de lam nha d, dffdng sa, nha xffdng, cdng them sff de doa cua sa mac hoa, chua man hoa, xdi mdn do gid mffa, dat canh tac dang giam di tffng nam. Tieng chudng canh bao tai nguyen tff nhien can kiet da ddng; day lai la mdt van de cd tinh toan cau vd cung nghiem trgng va gay can trong phat trien ben vffng. 4. Phat trien vi con ngt^dfi Tff tffdng phat trien vi con ngffdi da trd thanh quan niem pho bien cua the gidi dffang dai. Dffdi nggn cd cua td chffc phat ^ QUAN LY KINH TE trien cua Lien Hgp Qudc (UNDP), tff nam 1990, to chffc nay da cho xuat ban deu dan hang nam Bdo cao phdt trien con ngudi vdi y tffdng trung tam, lay con ngffdi la muc tieu cua phat trien kinh te vdi each nhin md rdng ban ve nhieu mat trong ddi sd'ng xa hpi. Phat trien con ngffdi la muc tieu cudi cung cua phat trien kinh te. Vdi tff each la muc tieu chff khdng phai la mdt phffong tien, phat trien con ngffdi nham lam giau cho cude sd'ng con ngffdi. Sff giau cd ve vat chat (tao ra khdi Iffpng hang hoa va dich vu ldn han) cd the gdp phan thffc hien dieu nay, nhffng khdng ban la da phat trien con ngffdi. Thffc te cho thay, khdng tdn tai mdi lien he 1/1 giffa sff giau cd ve vat chat (tinh bang GDP binh quan dau ngffdi) vdi sff giau cd ve tinh than (tinh bang chi sd phat trien con ngffdi). Do vay, quan diem san pham qud'c gia ve phat trien con ngffdi can dffge coi nhff la chi tieu dau tien cua trinh dp phat trien. Xet cho cung, van de ca ban la kha nang cua con ngffdi de cd dffge tudi thg ngay cang cao (do bang tudi thg ky vgng trung binh) va mgt sffe khoe tdt (do bang ty le tff vong), cd du dieu kien hgc tap va hieu biet tri thffc (do bang ty le tre em den trffdng va ty le biet dgc biet viet), cd dii thu nhap de mua IffOng thffc, quan ao, nha d va tham gia vao cac quyet dinh cd anh hffdng trffc tiep den cude sdng cua hg va cua cdng ddng v.v " (NXB Chinh tri Quoc gia, Hd Ngi 1999; tr. 48-49). Rd rang la phat trien kinh te giff vai trd phffong tien de dat tdi muc tieu phat trien con ngffdi; bao gdm cac mat: phuc lgi vat chat day du ban, sffe khoe tdt ban, tudi thg cao ban va dffge hgc hanh de nang cao tri tue va ddi sd'ng tinh than. Di xa ban nffa, phat trien con ngudi cdn dffge quan niem la qua trinh md rgng cac Iffa chpn, tffc la qua trinh nane cao nang lire va md rdng cP hpi cua ffa chpn " Sff phat trien cd the dffpr .i la mdt qua $635(8+9/2010) XAYDl/NG Md HlNH PHAT TRIEN KINH TE VIET NAM TRONG THdl KY DEN 2020 NGHIEN CQU - TRAO 001 [^IH trinh md rdng cac quyen tff do thffc sff ma ngffdi dan dffpc hffdng. Viec tap trung vao cac quyen tff do cua con ngffdi tffpng phan vdi nhffng quan diem ban hep ban ve sff phat trien, chang ban nhff dinh nghia tang trffdng tdng san pham qud'c dan (GNP), hoac tang thu nhap ca nhan, hoac cdng nghiep boa, hoac tien bp cdng nghe, hoac la hien dai boa xa hpi. Tat nhien, tang trffdng GNP hoac thu nhap ca nhan cd the cd y nghia bet sffe quan trpng vdi vai trd la phffPng tien de md rdng cac quyen tff do ma cac thanh vien ciia xa hpi dffpc hffdng." (Amartya Sen 2002; tr. 13). Trong dieu kien ddi ngheo tdn tai, tinh trang ngheo ddi dffge giam thieu va nhffng ngffdi vi nhffng ly do khac nhau tam thdi bi ddi ngheo, khdng bi xa hgi bd roi do la bieu hien cdng bang xa hgi hay sff phat trien ben vffng ve mat xa hgi. Nha kinh te hgc cd dien Adam Smith (1776) da tffng ndi: "Khdng cd xa hgi nao cd the chae chan hffng thinh va cd hanh phuc khi phan ldn ngffdi dan phai sd'ng trong canh ngheo ddi va khd cffc" (Michael P.Todaro 1998, tr.l87.). Td chffc Oxfarm cho rang: "Ndi thing ra, tinh trang ngheo khd tran lan khdng chi ndi len mdt nen kinh te vd cung kem hieu Iffc ma cdn la mot sff vi pham cac quyen co ban". (Oxfam International /1997, tr. 16.). Bao cao Phat trien con ngffdi nam 1996 cua UNDP da canh bao ve cac dang thffc tang trffdng khdng vi con ngffdi, dd la nhffng hien tffgng tdng trUdng khong viec Idm, khong luang tdm, khong tieng noi, khong gdc r§, khong tuang lai. - Tdng trudng khong viec Idm (Jobless growth-where): la tang trffdng nhffng ca hgi viec lam khdng dffge md rdng. Trong luc kinh te tang trffdng, tinh trang that nghiep vin lan tran, hang tram trieu ngffdi cd mffc thu nhap rat thap, nhat la d cac khu vffc ndng nghiep va dich vu phi chinh thffc. - Tdng trudng khong luang tdm (Ruthless growth-where): thanh qua tang trffdng kinh te chu yeu dem lai lgi ich eho ngffdi giau, trong luc hang trieu ngffdi ngheo vin phai vat ldn vdi ddi khat. UNDP tinh rang, tff nam 1970 den 1985, GNP toan cau tang 40%, nhffng sd Iffgng ngffdi ngheo cung da tang them 17%. - Tdng trudng khong tieng noi (Voiceless growth-where): la tang trffdng khdng di cung md rgng dan chu, quyen con ngffdi, binh dang gidi va kha nang tiep can vdi cac ngudn Iffc va dieu kien phat trien. - Tdng trudng khong gdc ri (Rootless growth-which): dd la tang trffdng khdng dam bao bao duy tri va phat trien tinh da dang va dgc dao cua van hda. Cac nha van hda ffdc tinh, trai dat cd tdi 10.000 dang van hda khac nhau, nhffng nhieu nen van hda trong so' nay dang cd nguy cP mai mdt, tham chi hi van minh cdng nghiep quet bd. Sau cung tdng trUdng khong tuang lai (Futureless growth-where): la tang trffdng kinh te phung phi nhffng ngudn Iffc hien tai, chang de lai gi cho cac the he tffong lai. Day la tinh trang kha phd bien d nhffng nen kinh te dffa vao khai thac qua mffc cac ngudn tai nguyen, gay d nhiem mdi trffdng, cac ddng sdng, ngudn nffdc, buy hoai rffng va canh quan Nhffng kieu phat trien tren day khdng chi lam tram trgng them tinh trang bat binh dang, ma cdn khdng duy tri dffpc tinh ben vffng trong phat trien. (Xem: UNBP: Human Bevelopment Report 1996. New York, Oxford University Press 1996). Tff cac khia canh tff nhien, xa hpi va ca che neu ra, cd the khai quat lai la: "Chien Iffpc phat trien ben vffng la sff hpi tu va thang hoa cua mpi tff tffdng td't dep dffpc lffu truyen het ddi ng sang ddi kia trong nhan the. Chien luge nay, ngoai nguyen tac chu dao ve tinh bin vdng (sustainabil- $635(8+9/2010) QUAN LY KINH TE MB NGHIEN aim - TRAO 001 XAY DI/NG MO HiNH PHAT TRI^N KINH TE VIET NAM TRONG THOI KY OEN 2020 ity), cdn bao gdm 3 nguyen tac ve tinh cong bdng (fairness), nd vffa ddi hdi sff cdng bang cho ngffdi the he nay, vffa ddi hdi sff cdng bang cho cac the he sau; tinh hdi hod (harmony), mot mat la sff hai hoa giffa con ngffdi va gidi tff nhien, mat khac la sff hai hoa (hoa muc) giffa ngffdi va ngffdi; tinh cgng dong (common), nd nhan manh tinh chinh the cua dia cau va tinh phu thudc lan nhau cua loai ngffdi, mudn thffc hien muc tieu chung cua sff phat trien ben vffng, can ap dung hanh ddng lien hgp chung toan ciu". (Shu Yongqin 2002 tr.6). Tdm lai, phat trien ben vffng la sff phat trien mang tinh tdng hgp vdi muc tieu rd rang la vi con ngffdi, khdng chi la sff md rdng ca hgi Iffa chpn cho the he hdm nay ma cdn khdng dffpc lam tdn hai den nhffng cP hdi Iffa chpn ciia cac the he mai sau. Sff ben vffng cua phat trien dffpc the hien ca d khia canh kinh te, xa hgi va mdi trffdng. Dd la qua trinh gia tang phuc lgi cho cac the he con ngffdi bang each gia tang tai san, bao gdm tai san vat chat, tai san tai chinh, tai san con ngffdi, tai san mdi trffdng (nffdc sach, khdng khi sach, bai ca, rffng cay, dat dai ) va tai san xa hgi (sff tin cay lan nhau, kha nang lien ket, sff dam bao an ninh cho ngffdi va tai san ). 5. Mof cvta, hpi nhap de phat trien Thffc tiin lich sff chffa tffng cd vi du nao ve phat trien bang con dffdng biet lap vdi phan cdn lai cua the gidi. Trffde day, nhffng nffdc di tien phong tren con dffdng CNH di ra the gidi bang bp mat cua chu nghla thffc dan (xam chiem thugc dia, va vet tai nguyen, md rgng thi trffdng, cffOng vffc ). Ngay nay, nhffng nffdc di sau khdng the (va cang khdng cd ca hdi) lap lai con dffdng lich sff day mau Iffa ay. Nhffng hp cd each hpc hdi kinh nghiem va du nhap dffpc cac ngudn Iffc phat trien ve vd'n, cdng nghe - ky thuat, |]3 QUAN LY KINH TE tri thffc quan ly, nhan Iffc de rut ngan khoang each thdi gian so vdi cac nffdc CNH CO dien trffde day nhd "Ipi the cua ngffdi di sau", do nhffng dac diem mang tinh thdi dai la xu the tang nhanh tien trinh toan cau boa vdi nhffng bieu hien mdi ve chat mang lai. Bat chap nhffng khd khan, sff ehd'ng dd'i cua mdt so' nhdm xa hgi vdi cac loai chinh kien va quyen lgi khac nhau; vdi tff each la mpt xu the tat yeu khach quan, tien trinh toan cau hoa tie'p tuc gia tang tren khap mgi phffdng dien va dang cd xu hffdng chi phdi qua trinh van dpng chung cua kinh te the gidi. Dffpc sff hd trg cua each mang khoa hgc cdng nghe, dac biet la sff phat trien vffgt bac trong linh vffc dien tff, cdng nghe thdng tin, thang the cua cP che thi trffdng mang tinh toan cau da tao ra sff thd'ng nhat trong cP. che xff ly cac md'i quan he kinh te, trong dd cd hai dac diem dang lffu y, dd la: Thff nhat, sff lien ket chdc ndng san xuat da gan ke't nen kinh te toan cau, khien cho bien gidi kinh te qud'c gia ngay cang md nhat. Dieu nay lam cho cac chinh sach kinh te qud'c gia ngay cang phai tinh tdi sff phdi hpp vdi cac yeu to' ben ngoai khdng cdn mang sac thai biet lap nhff trffde. Nhieu doanh nghiep qud'c gia gid day thffdng xuyen phai chiu sffe ep canh tranh mang tinh toan cau, cugc canh tranh vi the che da bdt ddu va the che qud'c gia phai thich ffng nhieu ban vdi toan cau hoa. Hai la, trong dieu kien todn cdu hod tdi chinh, quan he qud'c te chiu sff chi phdi cua chinh sach tai chinh - tien te, ma chinh sach nay lai khdng tach rdi khdi yeu td chinh tri. Tren thffc te, toan cau hoa ngay nay diin ra ca dffdi hinh thffc dau tranh giffa cac nffdc vdi cac the Iffc tai chinh khac nhau. Chinh vi vay, toan cau hoa tac dgng den cac nffdc khac nhau mdt each khdng g nhau. Viec tim ra phffong thffc he : Ac trong dau $635(8+9/2010) XAY DUNG MO HiNH PHAT TRIEN KINH li VIET NAM TRONG THdl KY D^N 2020 NGHIEN CUU - TRAO 001 [j^'i I \\ tranh de sao cho toan cau boa dat hieu qua cao nhat vdi mdi qudc gia da trd thanh van de ehinh sach chu chd't. Dac diem ndi bat cua toan cau hoa tai chinh la md ra ca hdi thu hut vdn dau tff de day nhanh qua trinh CNH-HDH d cac nffdc dang phat trien. Mffc dp thu hut FDI cua Trung Qud'c va thanh cdng tang trffdng kinh te cua hp 20 nam qua la mot bang ehffng rat thuyet phuc ve dieu nay. Tuy nhien, cuoc khung hoang kinh te - tai chinh chau A cudi thap nien 90 cua the ky trffde va dac biet la cude khung hoang tai chinh va suy thoai kinh te the gidi mdi dien ra da canh bao ve nhffng rui ro cd the xay ra do toan cau hoa tai chinh mang lai. Vi vay, khdng vi rui ro ma dffng ngoai ddng chay toan cau boa tai chinh ma can tang cffdng cac bien phap phdng ngffa rui ro vdi hai npi dung chu chd't dffge rut ra tff chinh kinh nghiem khic phuc hau qua ciia khung hoang kinh te - tai chinh chau A, dd la minh bach hoa cac boat ddng tai chinh, tang cffdng hanh ddng tap the d khu vffc va the gidi trong viec phdi hpp chinh sach phat trien kinh te. Dieu nay ngu y, an toan nam d chinh ngay sff hgp tac. Khi bien nen kinh te qud'c gia thanh mot phan cua kinh te the gidi thi neu xay ra "sff cd", mot hanh dpng tap the chdng lai sff bat dn phai trd thanh bat bugc. Ve phffPng dien lao dgng, neu nhff trffde day, cac ludng di cff thffdng gin vdi nhffng bien dgng ldn ve kinh te the gidi, thi trong toan cau hoa ngay nay, cac ddng di chuyen lao ddng qudc te lai diln ra thffdng xuyen vdi qui md ldn. Theo Ngan hang The gidi, vao dau the ky XXI se cd khoang 130 trieu ngffdi sdng d ben ngoai nffdc minh sinh ra. So' lieu phan tich cho thay, neu nam 1975 cd 2,5 trieu ngffdi vffgt bien gidi qud'c gia thi den nam 1995 con sd nay da cd tdi 23 trieu ngffdi. Ngoai ra, cdn cd tren 20 trieu ngffdi di chuyen den nai d mdi trong ngi bd cua cac qudc gia. Cung nhff toan ciu hoa tai chinh, sff gia tang td'c dp va quy md di chuyen ddng nhan Iffc da dem lai nhieu cP hdi cho cac nffdc dang cdng nghiep hoa. Dd'i vdi linh vffc thffPng mai hang hoa va dich vu, giai doan toan ciu hoa ngay nay khdng chi ehffng kien sff gia tang han trffde ma cac hinh thffc thffong mai gin vdi cdng nghe thdng tin nhff thffOng mai dien tff da ra ddi va phat trien rat nhanh chdng. Nhff vay la, trong bdi canh toan cau hoa tai chinh ngay nay, chien Iffgc cdng nghiep hoa phai tinh tdi sff boat dgng cua mang Iffdi san xuat da qud'c gia, dffge hd trg bdi mang thdng tin Internet toan ciu (chudi gia tri toan ciu). Nghia la gid day cin phai tham gia vao chudi gia tri toan ciu de thffc hien viec chuyen dich ca cau kinh te cua mdi qud'c gia khi tien hanh cdng nghiep hoa. Dd chinh la cai mdi, ed sff khac biet dang ke vdi nhffng qua trinh cdng nghiep hoa trffde day, khi ma sff phan cdng lao dgng qud'c te didn ra chu yeu qua viec cung cap san pham chff chffa hoan toan la sff phan cdng lao ddng thdng qua chuyen mdn hoa chffc nang san xuat theo he thd'ng lien ket mang toan ciu. Viec tim each tham gia vdo mang sdn xuat todn cdu vd tim dugc chd ddng vdng chdc tren thi trUdng (cd trong nUdc ldn the gidi) co y nghia quyet dinh ddi vdi cong nghiep hod trong dieu kien hien nay. Sff di chuyen nay bao gdm hai bffdc chu yeu: mdt la, tff chd d ben ngoai mang trd thdnh mdt khau cua mgng; va hai la tff mat khau cd gia tri gia tang thap chuyen len (ndng cdp, upgrading) bg phan CO gid tri gia tdng cao hon, hoac tff nang cap de cd gia tri gia tang cao ban ngay khi vin d bd phan sin cd. Sff chuyen dich cff cau nhff vay vffa bao ham each tiep can truyen thdng ve dich chuyen ca cau, lai vffa md rdng tam tff duy do sff ddi hdi cua thffc tiin. Cach hinh dung dich chuyen ca cau kinh te cu la cd gang di chuyen ngudn Iffc tff khu vffc $635(8+9/2010) QUAN LY KINH TE ^ ill ii lii NGHIEN CIJ^ • TRAP 001 XAY DUNG MO HlNH PHAT TRI^N KINH TE VIET NAM TRONG THdl KY DEN 2020 ndng nghiep truyen thdng (cd nang suat thap) sang khu vffc cdng nghiep hien dai (dai dien cho khu vffc cd nang suat cao). Cach nghi nay vdn hoan toan hien nhien trong thdi ky each mang cdng nghiep, nhffng dang trd nen khdng hoan toan dung trong dieu kien mdi ngay nay. Van de la d chd, dffdi tae dgng cua khoa hgc cdng nghe hien dai, mot mat the gidi dang trong thdi ky chuyen ddi sang xa hdi hau cdng nghiep, khu vffc nang suat cao bay gid khdng chi la cdng nghiep ma bao gdm ca khu vffc dich vu dffa tren cd sd khoa hgc - cdng nghe hien dai, dang chiem ty trgng cao nhat trong nhffng nen kinh te thi trffdng phat trien. Mat khac, khu vffc ndng nghiep trffde day mac nhien coi la khu vffc nang suat thap, do ap dung tien bd khoa hpc - cdng nghe hien dai, khdng it linh vffc da cd gia tri gia tang rat cao va dieu quan trpng la khi gan ket vao chudi gia tri toan ciu, san xuat ndng nghiep khdng chi cdn la ndi san xuat ra cac san pham cd gia tri gia tang thap. Nhff vay la, cung vdi dich chuyen cd cau nganh vi md (tff ndng nghiep sang cdng nghiep va tff ndng nghiep va cdng nghiep sang dich vu), Viet Nam cung nhff nhieu nffdc dang cdng nghiep hoa ngay nay cdn cd CO hdi thuc day chuyen dich cP cau kinh te vi md (cap doanh nghiep) theo hffdng hgi nhap qud'c te. Qua trinh cdng nghiep hoa cd cd may rut ngin chinh la nhd vao mdt phan quan trgng tff nhffng chinh sach thuc day dich chuyen cjp cau theo each tiep can nay. Nhffng nghien cffu ve cac cdng ty hien dai cdn cho thay, nhffng nam 1970 trd ve trffde, cac cdng ty thffdng tap trung nd Iffc nghien cffu ddi mdi he thong sdn xuat (innovation of production system) nham giam chi phi diu vao, tang khdi Iffgng san xuat va khuyen khich tieu dung hang loat. Ngudn lgi nhuan thu dffge chu yeu do giam chi phi san xuat va tang so ngffdi tieu dung, net dae trffng cua thi trffdng ngffdi ban. Nhffng tinh hinh da ddi khac, tff sau thap ky 70; cac cdng ty hien dai thu lgi nhuan chu yeu tff viec doi mdi sdn pham (innovation of products) (chff khdng phai tff ddi mdi he thdng san xuat), nham nhan mffc tieu dung hay gia tang tdc do tieu dung, la net dac trffng eua thi trffdng ngffdi mua. Gia tdng toe do tieu dung gid day khong con la cdch kinh doanh nda md la mot triet ly kinh doanh mai. Bang each nay, ngffdi ta khdng cin phai md rdng san xuat, tham chi cdn thu hep quy md san xuat, nhffng lgi nhuan thu dffge van ldn ban. Day la dieu mdi ve chat cua cac TNCs hien dai trong dieu kien toan cau hoa. Hinh thffc td chffc cua cdng ty gid day da ddi khac. De thu lgi nhuan, cac cdng ty khdng nhat thiet phai cd he thd'ng san xuat rieng cua minh. Cdc TNCs dang chuyen giao mgnh me he thdng sdn xuat ra ben ngodi, sang nhdng nUdc kem phdt trien han, trong khi lgi gidm bdt quy mo d cong ty me. Toan ciu hoa khien cho he thdng san xuat va phan phdi dffge chuyen ra ben ngoai, trong khi cac TNCs chi tap trung nim giff he thd'ng tai chinh va ban quyen, nhffng linh vffc dem lai ehffng 70% tdng lgi nhuan cdng ty tff toan bg chu trinh boat ddng kinh doanh. Day thffc sff la mot co hdi ma toan ciu hoa dem lai cho cac nffdc cham phat trien de tiep nhan he thdng san xuat va phan phd'i tff eae TNCs khi tham gia vao qua trinh toan eiu hoa. Sff bat ddi xffng ve phan chia lgi nhuan trong he thdng toan ciu khien mot sd hgc gia phffdng Tay gpi la "sff phan biet chung tdc ve mat kinh te", nhffng la mot thffc te hien hffu chffa cd he thd'ng td't hPn nao thay the. (Xin xem them: Bruno Amoroso: On Globalization - Capitalism in the 21st Century. Roskilde, Benmark; 2001). Tdm lai, yeu td qudc te cua qua trinh phat trien khdng phai den nay mdi dffge neu ra nhff mot trong :' ig nguyen tie CP ban. Kinh nghiem 1 sff eua bat ky QUAN LY KINH TE $635(8+9/2010) XAY DUNG MO HiNH PHAT TRIEN KINH ji VIET NAM TRONG THdl KY OEN 2020 NGHIEN ClJfU - TRAO 001 [^ii mdt nffdc CNH mudn nao cung deu gan vdi yeu to' qud'c te vdi tff each la mpt dgng Iffc, mdt ngudn Iffc phat trien, mpt cai dich (it ra la ve mat cdng nghe, ky thuat) cin hffdng tdi va la mpt dieu kien quan trgng cua CNH rut ngan. Qua trinh CNH cua Viet Nam trong thdi ky cP che KHH tap trung cung da tffng nhan rat manh yeu td trp giffp tff ben ngoai. Nhffng cd le, trong dieu kien mdi cua toan ciu hoa, tinh chat khan thiet, sdng cdn cua hdi nhap qud'c te nham nang cao nang Iffc canh tranh va kha nang thich nghi vdi nhffng bien ddi mau le cua tinh hinh kinh te qudc te lai dat ra gay git ban bao gid bet. Cho du biet trffde nhffng thach thffc se khdng nhd va cd the cdn gia tang, nhffng ca hpi cho phat trien cung nhieu va van de la khdng the khdng hdi nhap vdi kinh te qudc te ma hy vpng cd dffpc thanh cdng. Lich sff CNH the gidi den nay khdng cho thay mdt vi du nao nhff vay. Vi vay, dfft khoat phai md cffa, hpi nhap; trffde het la cin hai hda hda cac ca che chinh sach theo thdng le qudc te de cung phat trien. Nhffng quan diem phat trien neu ra dffa tren viec danh gia mdt each tdng quat "kinh te Viet Nam dang ddng trude mot khde ngogt" cua tien trinh phat trien sau 20 nam ddi mdi va md cffa; de tiep tuc hanh trinh chinh phuc nhffng muc tieu phat trien cao han, "can cd cai each toan dien de lam tien de cho giai dpan phat trien ben vffng. Cai each toan dien cd nghia la xay dffng mpt he thd'ng cp che hoan chinh hPn, quy md rdng hpn va phffc tap nhffng vffng chae so vdi giai dpan tang trffdng ban diu. Dac biet, khi kinh te hpi nhap manh vao thi trudng the gidi, nhieu van de phffc tap phat sinh ddi hdi cd cp che hffu hieu de tan dung ca hpi mdi va de ngan ngffa bat dn dinh", nhff each ndi cua Rodrik (2007) dd la he thdng ca che chat Iffgng cao (high quality institu- tions). (Trdn Vdn Thg 2008). $635(8+9/2010) TAI LIEU THAM KHAO • Amartya Sen (2002), Phdt trien Id quyen tU do, NXB Thdng ke. Ha Noi. . Angus Maddison (2001), The World econo- my: Amillennial Perspective, (OECD 2001). > Bruno Amoroso (2001), On Globalization - Capitalism in the 21st Century, Roskilde, Denmark. • Oxfam International (1997), Tdng trUang vdi cong bdng, ChuOng trinh thao luan ve chu de xoa doi giam ngheo thang 9/1997. . Michael P.Todaro (1998), Kinh te hgc cho the gidi thii ba, Nxb Giao due. Ha Noi. . Mark Shousen (2007), The Big Three in Economics. M.E. Sharpe, Armonk, New York. London, England 2007. • Phdt trien con ngudi - Tic quan niem den chien luge vd hanh dgng, NXB Chinh tri Quoc gia, Ha Npi, 1999. • Korea Nuclear Energy Foundation - KNEF, 2008. + Harvard University - John F. Kennedy School Government - + Chuong trinh chau A: Lua chon Thanh cong Bai hoc tff Dong A va Dong Nam A cho tuong lai cua Viet Nam - Mot khuon khd chinh sach phat trien kinh te - xa hoi cho Viet Nam trong giai doan 2011 - 2020. • Bui The Cudng, "Ky nguyen dan so' vang ii Viet Nam: mot dai lugng trong bai toan phat trien?" • Hoi thao "Chien luge phat trien kinh te-xa hoi cua Viet Nam trong bo'i canh hoi nhap qudc te", Vien Chien lugc phat trien Ha Noi, 24/6/2004. • Shu Yongqing (2002), "Xa hoi loai ngudi di ve dau? Hdi cd va binh luan ve the ky XX", Vien Thong tin khoa hoc xa hoi, Sd TN 2002 - 76 & 77, Ha Noi 2002. . Bui Tat Thang (2006), Chuyen dich ca cdu nganh kinh te d Viet Nam, Nha xuat ban Khoa hoc Xa hoi, Ha Noi. . Tran Van Tho (1997), "Cong nghiep hoa Viet Nam trong thdi dai chau A - Thai Binh Duong", Thdi bdo Kinh te Sdi Gdn, VAPEC, 1997. . Tran Van Tho (2008), "Tff cai each tiem tie'n de'n xay dUng eo che chat lugng cao", Hoi thao Nha Trang, thang 7/2008. QUAN LY KINH TE ^ . do gia tang cua nd nhieu ban la tdng phan tang dau vao, tffc cac yeu to' san xuat. Phan nhieu ban dd cd dffge do ap dung ngay cang nhieu tien bp khoa hgc cdng nghe, tri thffc quan ly kinh. thffc quan ly kinh doanh, tff ban va tai nguyen dung cd hieu suat han va trinh dp lao ddng ngay cang cao ban nhd day manh giao due va dao tao Trong phffong phap tinh toan tang trffdng (growth. cdn mang sac thai biet lap nhff trffde. Nhieu doanh nghiep qud'c gia gid day thffdng xuyen phai chiu sffe ep canh tranh mang tinh toan cau, cugc canh tranh vi the che da bdt ddu va