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Aptitude for Destruction
Volume 2
Case Studies of Organizational Learning
in Five Terrorist Groups
Brian A. Jackson
John C. Baker
Kim Cragin
John Parachini
Horacio R. Trujillo
Peter Chalk
Prepared for the National Institute of Justice
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing
objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing
the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do
not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.
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© Copyright 2005 RAND Corporation
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Published 2005 by the RAND Corporation
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Aptitude for destruction : organizational learning in terrorist groups and its implications for
combating terrorism / Brian A. Jackson [et al.]
.
p. cm.
“MG-331.”
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 0-8330-3764-1 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Terrorists. 2. Organizational learning. 3. Terrorism—Prevention—Government
policy. I. Jackson, Brian A. (Brian Anthony) II.Title.
HV6431.A67 2005
303.6'25—dc22
2005003983
“MG-332.”
ISBN 0-8330-3767-6
Photo courtesy of iStockphoto.com Inc. Copyright 2005 iStockphoto Inc.
Online at http://www.iStockphoto.com/Photographer: John Bohannon
Cover design by Stephen Bloodsworth
The research described in this report was supported by Grant No. 2003-
IJ-CX-1022 awarded by the National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice
Programs, U.S. Department of Justice. The research was conducted
within RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environment (ISE), a division
of the RAND Corporation, for the National Institute of Justice. Points
of view in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily
represent the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of
Justice.
iii
Preface
Continuing conflicts between violent groups and states generate an ever-present de-
mand for higher quality and more timely information to support operations to com-
bat terrorism. In particular, better ways are needed to understand how terrorist and
insurgent groups adapt over time into more-effective organizations and increasingly
dangerous threats. To adapt, terrorist organizations must learn. A group’s ability to
learn determines its chance of success, since learning is the link between what the
group wants to do and its ability to gather the needed information and resources to
actually do it. Despite the importance of terrorist group learning, comparatively little
focused research effort has been directed at understanding this process and identify-
ing the factors that influence group learning ability. While relevant data and insights
can be found in the literature on terrorism and terrorist organizations, this informa-
tion has not been collected and systematically analyzed to assess its importance from
the perspective of efforts to combat terrorism. This study addresses that need in an
effort to both analyze current understanding and stimulate further study and research
in this area.
The National Institute of Justice provided funding to the RAND Corporation
to conduct an analysis of organizational learning in terrorist groups and assess its im-
plications for efforts to combat terrorism. The work was performed between Novem-
ber 2003 and November 2004, a period during which the threat of international ter-
rorism was high and concern about the capabilities of terrorist organizations and how
they might change over time was a central focus of policy debate and U.S. homeland
security planning. The study is described in this report and in a companion volume,
Aptitude for Destruction, Volume 1: Organizational Learning in Terrorist Groups and
Its Implications for Combating Terrorism, MG-331-NIJ, which applies the analytical
framework described in the second part of this report to the practical demands of in-
telligence and law enforcement activities.
This report should be of interest to a wide range of audiences, including profes-
sionals with interests in terrorism, counterterrorism, emergency response planning,
and homeland security. It extends RAND’s ongoing research on terrorism and do-
mestic security issues. Related RAND publications include the following:
iv Aptitude for Destruction
• Brian A. Jackson et al., Aptitude for Destruction, Volume 1: Organizational
Learning in Terrorist Groups and Its Implications for Combating Terrorism,
MG-331-NIJ.
• Brian A. Jackson et al., Protecting Emergency Responders: Lessons Learned from
Terrorist Attacks, CF-176-OSTP, 2002.
• Kim Cragin and Sara A. Daly, The Dynamic Terrorist Threat: An Assessment of
Group Motivations and Capabilities in a Changing World, MR-1782-AF, 2004.
• Peter Chalk and William Rosenau, Confronting the “Enemy Within”: Security
Intelligence, the Police, and Counterterrorism in Four Democracies, MG-100-RC,
2004.
• Bruce Hoffman, Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq, OP-127-IPC/
CMEPP, 2004.
This research was conducted within RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Envi-
ronment (ISE), a division of the RAND Corporation. The mission of RAND ISE is
to improve the development, operation, use, and protection of society’s essential
built and natural assets; and to enhance the related social assets of safety and security
of individuals in transit and in their workplaces and communities. The ISE research
portfolio encompasses research and analysis on a broad range of policy areas includ-
ing homeland security, criminal justice, public safety, occupational safety, the envi-
ronment, energy, natural resources, climate, agriculture, economic development,
transportation, information and telecommunications technologies, space exploration,
and other aspects of science and technology policy. Inquiries regarding RAND Infra-
structure, Safety, and Environment may be directed to:
Debra Knopman, Vice President and Director
RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environment
1200 South Hayes Street
Arlington, Virginia 22202
703-413-1100
Email: ise@rand.org
http://www.rand.org/ise
v
Contents
Preface iii
Figures and Tables
ix
Acknowledgments
xi
Abbreviations and Acronyms
xiii
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction Brian A. Jackson 1
The Need to Both Describe and Explain Learning
2
About This Study
3
About This Report
5
References
6
Part I: Case Studies
Prologue
9
CHAPTER TWO
Aum Shinrikyo John Parachini 11
Introduction
11
Background
12
Operations and Tactics
18
Training
25
Logistics
27
Intelligence and Operational Security
31
Conclusions
32
References
34
CHAPTER THREE
Hizballah, the Party of God Kim Cragin 37
Introduction
37
Background
37
Operations and Tactics
40
vi Aptitude for Destruction
Training 47
Logistics
48
Intelligence and Operational Security
51
Conclusions
53
References
54
CHAPTER FOUR
Jemaah Islamiyah John C. Baker 57
Introduction
57
Background
59
Operations and Tactics
66
Training
76
Logistics
79
Intelligence and Operational Security
80
Conclusions
84
References
89
CHAPTER FIVE
Provisional Irish Republican Army Brian A. Jackson 93
Introduction
93
Background
94
Operations and Tactics
97
Training
119
Logistics
125
Intelligence and Operational Security
126
Conclusions
133
References
138
CHAPTER SIX
The Radical Environmentalist Movement Horacio R. Trujillo 141
Introduction
141
Background
142
Operations and Tactics
152
Training
161
Intelligence and Operational Security
163
Conclusions
164
References
172
Contents vii
Part II: Theory and Application
Prologue
179
CHAPTER SEVEN
Theory: Organizational Learning as a Four-Component Process
Horacio R. Trujillo and Brian A. Jackson
181
Acquisition
183
Interpretation
185
Distribution
186
Storage
187
References
187
CHAPTER EIGHT
Application: The Four Components of Organizational Learning
in the Case Study Groups Brian A. Jackson
191
Acquisition
191
Interpretation
195
Distribution
196
Storage
198
CHAPTER NINE
Concluding Observations Brian A. Jackson 199
[...]... presents results from our review of the organizational learning and terrorism literatures and the case studies of learning in individual terrorist organizations A companion report, Aptitude for Destruction, Volume 1: Organizational Learning in Terrorist Groups and Its Implications for Combating Terrorism, MG-331-NIJ, focuses on the application of these concepts to policy for combating terrorism That report... Two through Six present case studies of organizational learning in five terrorist organizations The studies draw on information available in the literature and expert interviews to explore the groups motivations for learning, the areas in which they have chosen to learn, the outcomes of their learning efforts, and—to the extent possible—how they carried out those efforts In each case study, the author... organizational learning has not been a primary focus of analytical efforts aimed at these groups For some, information was available on group motivations and topics of learning but not on the processes through which learning efforts were actually carried out Available information sources contained almost no insights about some components of group learning for example, the internal decisionmaking involved in selecting... examining each terrorist group began his or her work with a common set of areas to explore, including the group’s motivations for learning, the areas it chose to learn, the outcomes, and—to the extent possible—how it carried out its learning efforts The case study process included review of available published information on each group’s learning activities, supplemented by examination of other information... and reviewing a set of case studies of organizations that have used terrorism as a component of their violent activities We selected five organizations for these case studies: 5 1 Review of the literature on organizational learning 5 Al Qaeda was deliberately not selected to be a case study group The goal of the study was to examine organizational learning across different types of terrorist. .. learning, the occurrence of change is not sufficient to indicate that organizational learning has occurred Changes are not necessarily intentional; they can be made unintentionally or for exogenous reasons incidental to the behavior that is changed (e.g., a change may occur in one area simply as a result of a change made in another) In this study, we define learning 1 2 Aptitude for Destruction A terrorist. .. 5 .2 5.3 5.4 7.1 Organizational Structure of Hizballah 45 Organizational Structure of the Provisional Irish Republican Army 96 Results of PIRA Use of RPGs, IPGs, and PRIGs, May 1981–March 19 92 109 Model of Tactical Decisionmaking by Terrorist Organizations 111 Learning Processes in Tactical Planning 114 Component Processes of an Organizational Learning Framework 1 82 Tables 4.1 4 .2. .. Approximately 25 individuals participated in the workshop, where discussions were held on a not -for- attribution basis The workshop focused on practical insights into how to improve the design of policies for combating terrorism Starting with the preliminary results of the case studies, the discussion explored how analytical approaches based on organizational learning might be relevant and applicable to combating... (last accessed October 21 , 20 04) Stern, Jessica, “The Protean Enemy,” Foreign Affairs, Vol 82, No 4, 20 03, pp 27 –40 Thomas, Troy S., and William D Casebeer, Violent Systems: Defeating Terrorists, Insurgents, and Other Non-State Adversaries, Colorado Springs, CO: United States Air Force Academy, United States Air Force Institute for National Security Studies, 20 04 Part I: Case Studies Prologue Chapters... announced the ministries, it named twelve ministers, a head of its House Agency, a head of its Secretariat, and Asahara, the founder The Senate investigators identified 12 people out of a listing of 65 as being “Key Aum Members.” In 1990, the group’s electoral slate included 25 people, none of whom were group ministers 2 For a chart depicting the Aum shadow government and the names of the ministers, . objectivity.
Aptitude for Destruction
Volume 2
Case Studies of Organizational Learning
in Five Terrorist Groups
Brian A. Jackson
John C. Baker
Kim Cragin
John. P.O. Box 21 38, Santa Monica, CA 90407 -2 1 38
120 0 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22 2 0 2- 5050
20 1 North Craig Street, Suite 20 2, Pittsburgh, PA 1 521 3-1 516
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