[...]... this book Pim Martens & Jan Rotmans Maastricht, June 1999 This page intentionally left blank Chapter 1 CLIMATE CHANGE: AN INTEGRATED PERSPECTIVE P Martens and J Rotmans 1.1 Introduction The consequences of rapid and substantial human-induced global climate change on life on Earth could be far-reaching The impact on society of stringent emission control programs could be enormous, and the efficiency of... demographic and epidemiological transition? What drives environmentally related human behaviour? What are the roots and dynamics of technological innovation? How are preferences formed and do they evolve through time? 1 Climate Change: An Integrated Perspective 5 What drives processes such as urbanisation and migration? As indicated above, exploring global climate change and its consequences for human society... uncertain It furthermore advocates the need for an integrative perspective to analyse and understand the complexity of the climate phenomenon We are convinced that an integrated perspective can provide a useful guide to the problem of global climate change, and complement detailed analyses that cover only some parts of this complex problem Given the long history, many people contributed directly or indirectly... industry, and transportation infrastructure, agricultural yields, human settlements, human health and tourism Although there is a wide range of systems and sectors, upon which changes of climate may have an effect (e.g from mountain glaciers to manufacturing), the approaches applied in climate impact assessment are broadly similar The purpose of Chapter 6: Impacts of climate change is to give an overview... change Nevertheless, we think that even a simplified but integrated model can provide a useful guide to global climate change, and complement detailed analyses that cover only some parts of the phenomenon of global climate change In general, this book aims to give the reader a clear understanding of an integrated perspective of global climate change, which acts as a guideline for this book The underlying... incorporate this challenge by concentrating on different sources and types of uncertainty, and how these uncertainties could be coloured according to the biases and preferences of various perspectives This Chapter aims to give a better understanding of the major role of 1 Climate Change: An Integrated Perspective 9 uncertainty in climate change modelling, and to demonstrate why the subjective dimension should... propagate uncertainties through the analysis and reflect them in the conclusions In this book we provide an integrative perspective by presenting an Integrated Assessment framework of climate change (Integrated Assessment is an iterative, continuing process, where integrated insights from the scientific community are communicated to the decision-making community, and experiences and learning effects from decision-makers... Change: An Integrated Perspective 7 In Chapter 3: Modelling of the climate system current climate models are described that are used to project how the Earth’s climate will respond to changes in external conditions, as well as their advantages and limitations Although climate models have improved considerably over the past decades, they still have many deficiencies Current climate models do not have an. .. Climate change is associated with a multitude of effects: climate change will shift the composition and geographic distribution of many ecosystems, with likely reductions in biological diversity Climate change will lead to an intensification of the global hydrological cycle and may have impacts on regional water resources Additionally, climate change and the resulting sea- 8 Chapter 1 level rise can have... physical, chemical and biological changes in the state of the biosphere; Impact system: social, economic and ecological impacts resulting from human activities; Response system: human interventions as response to ecological and societal impacts 1 Climate Change: An Integrated Perspective 3 Figure 1.1 represents the framework as a simple pressure-state-impactresponse diagram that represents many interactions . left blank Chapter 1 CLIMATE CHANGE: AN INTEGRATED PERSPECTIVE P. Martens and J. Rotmans 1.1 Introduction The consequences of rapid and substantial human-induced. diverse group of policy-makers and scientists. Also the title of the book changed into Climate Change: An Integrative Perspective . It then took another few years before