[...]... has played an important role in recent improvements, but various fundamental problems remain unresolved The European Central International Monetary Fund | April 2012 ©International Monetary Fund Not for Redistribution 1 world economic outlook: Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain Table 1.1 Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections (Percent change unless noted otherwise) Year over Year Difference... fiscal, competitiveness, and growth issues some of these countries face Bad news on the macroeconomic or political front still carries the risk of triggering the type of dynamics we saw last fall International Monetary Fund | April 2012 xiii ©International Monetary Fund Not for Redistribution WEO_Ch 00_FM.indd 13 4/11/12 1:52 PM world economic outlook: Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain Turning to policy,... the residual from a regression of real private sector credit growth on real GDP growth for the euro area 4 Historical data are monthly, and forecasts are quarterly International Monetary Fund | April 2012 7 ©International Monetary Fund Not for Redistribution WEO_Ch 01.indd 7 4/11/12 2:01 PM world economic outlook: Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain 0 banks have already responded to slowing activity by... 2:01 PM world economic outlook: Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain are still low, which poses risks, but a return to more normal levels appears to be under way This is good news for many vulnerable households Forecast for 2012–13 Real GDP growth is forecast to slow to about 3½ percent in 2012, from about 4 percent in 2011, and to return to 4 percent in 2013 (see Table 1.1) In the advanced economies, growth. .. Fund | April 2012 3 ©International Monetary Fund Not for Redistribution WEO_Ch 01.indd 3 4/12/12 3:47 PM world economic outlook: Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain Figure 1.2 Recent Financial Market Developments Financial conditions worsened appreciably in the fall of 2011 but have since improved Economic data have surprised on the upside, most notably in the United States, and policy actions have brought... Q4 2000 02 04 06 08 400 300 10 11: Q4 Sources: Haver Analytics; Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development; and IMF staff estimates International Monetary Fund | April 2012 11 ©International Monetary Fund Not for Redistribution WEO_Ch 01.indd 11 4/11/12 2:01 PM world economic outlook: Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain Figure 1.9 Global Inflation (Twelve-month change in the consumer price index... analysis and projections contained in the World Economic Outlook are integral elements of the IMF’s surveillance of economic developments and policies in its member countries, of developments in international financial markets, and of the global economic system The survey of prospects and policies is the product of a comprehensive interdepartmental review of world economic developments, which draws primarily... downside scenario in the January 2011 WEO Update International Monetary Fund | April 2012 xv ©International Monetary Fund Not for Redistribution WEO_Ch 00_FM.indd 15 4/12/12 12:35 PM world economic outlook: Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain further escalation of the euro area crisis will trigger a much more generalized flight from risk This scenario, discussed in depth in this issue, suggests that global and... Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil International Monetary Fund | April 2012 5 ©International Monetary Fund Not for Redistribution WEO_Ch 01.indd 5 4/12/12 3:47 PM world economic outlook: Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain Figure 1.4 Emerging Market Conditions Financial conditions in emerging markets began to tighten during the fall of 2011 Amid a general flight from risk, interest rate spreads... of years (see Figure 1.1, panel 4) Previous issues of the World Economic Outlook have cited high credit growth rates (Figure 1.10, panels 2 and 3), booming real-estate-related activity, and strong commodity prices as drivers of growth Evidence suggests that episodes of high credit and GDP growth are typically followed by episodes of much lower growth This also holds following episodes with booming commodity . class="bi x0 y0 w0 h0" alt="" WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK April 2012 Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain International Monetary Fund World Economic and Financial Surveys ©International. Redistribution world economic outlook: Growth resuminG, danGers remain vi International Monetary Fund | April 2012 Table A9. Summary of World Trade Volumes