World Economic and Social Survey 2011 World Economic and Social Survey 2011: The Great Green Technological Transformation United Nations United Nations Social Affairs THE GREAT GREEN TECHNOLOGICAL TRANSFORMATION Economic & Printed at the United Nations, New York 11-27775—May 2011—4,975 World Economic and Social Survey 2011: The Great Green Technological Transformation Nothing short of a technological revolution on the scale of the rst industrial revolution will be required to meet the challenge of sustainable development. Enormous improvements in human welfare have taken place over the past two centuries, but at a lasting cost of degradation of our natural environment. Continuation along established economic growth paths means that the Earth’s capacity to ensure human welfare and serve as a sink for the waste and pollution generated in the creation of that welfare will be exceeded. The World Economic and Social Survey 2011 analyses the challenges and options involved in shiing to a “green economy” based on more ecient and renewable energy technologies, transforming agricultural technologies so as to guarantee food security without further degrading land and water resources, and utilizing technology to adapt to climate change and reduce risks to human populations from natural hazards. The needed global technological transformation will have to be completed in less than 40 years, that is, twice as fast as it took to accomplish previous major technological transitions. Swi action in creating a global technology development and sharing regime, considerable upgrading of public sector capabilities and signicant adjustments in multilateral trade and nancing mechanisms will be needed in order to renew Earth’s capacity to sustain human life and enable developing countries to undertake the necessary technological transformation — one that permits them to realize their aspirations towards growth and poverty reduction. Related publications available from the United Nations: World Economic and Social Survey 2010: Retooling Global Development Sales No. E.10.II.C.1 ISBN 978-92-1-109161-8 Pages: 200 Price: $65.00 World Economic Situation and Prospects 2011 Sales No. E.11.II.C.2 ISBN 978-92-1-109162-5 Pages: 200 Price: $30.00 Other related publications are available from http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/publications/index.shtml. USD 10 ISBN 978-92-1-109163-2 World Economic and Social Survey 2011 The Great Green Technological Transformation United Nations New York, 2011 E/2011/50/Rev. 1 ST/ESA/333 Department of Economic and Social Affairs DESA e Department of Economic and Social Aairs of the United Nations Secretariat is a vital interface between global policies in the economic, social and environmental spheres and national action. e Department works in three main interlinked areas: (i) it compiles, generates and analyses a wide range of economic, social and environmental data and information on which States Members of the United Nations draw to review common problems and to take stock of policy options; (ii) it facilitates the negotiations of Member States in many intergovernmental bodies on joint courses of action to address ongoing or emerging global challenges; and (iii) it advises interested Governments on the ways and means of translating policy frameworks developed in United Nations conferences and summits into programmes at the country level and, through technical assistance, helps build national capacities. Note Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with gures. E/2011/50/Rev. 1 ST/ESA/333 ISBN 978-92-1-109163-2 eISBN 978-92-1-054758-1 United Nations publication Sales No. E.11.II.C.1 Copyright © United Nations, 2011 All rights reserved Printed at the United Nations, New York iii Preface e world faces important decisions on how we generate energy and manage our natural assets—choices with implications that will reverberate for generations to come. Against a backdrop of a rising global population and unceasing pressure on the natural environment, this 2011 edition of the World Economic and Social Survey can guide our collective eorts to achieve a much-needed technological transformation to a greener, cleaner global economy. e past two decades have seen considerable economic growth, particularly in the emerging economies. Hundreds of millions of people have risen from poverty—in Asia, Latin America and, increasingly, in Africa. But with global population expected to reach 9 billion by 2050, we need to accelerate the pace of productive economic expansion. At the same time, this growth must be balanced with respect for the human and natural capital that is its foundation, lest we risk profound and potentially irreversible changes in the planet’s ability to sustain progress. Rather than viewing growth and sustainability as competing goals on a collision course, we must see them as complementary and mutually supportive imperatives. is becomes possible when we embrace a low-carbon, resource-ecient, pro-poor economic model. A comprehensive global energy transition is critical to this process. With data, analysis and careful projections, this Survey illustrates the feasibility of such a transformation. It also highlights the hurdles, and outlines what will be required of governments and the international community as a whole to make the most of available green technologies—and to generate new applications and inventions that meet the needs of countries at dierent levels of development. e Survey also addresses the challenge of feeding a global population that will be nearly 35 per cent larger in 2050 than it is today—looking back at the rst green revolution in agriculture, and ahead to future models that can be far more eective in improving the global food supply while protecting its sources. Green economic thinking can unleash the government policies and business opportunities that will power sustainable growth, reduce poverty and protect our natural resources. By providing a wealth of information, insights and practical recommendations, this Survey can help advance the global debate on the critical role that a transformation in technology can play in ushering in a greener future. Its publication is especially timely as the world prepares for next year’s Rio+20 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development, and I commend it to policy-makers, non-governmental partners, business executives and concerned individuals everywhere who can help realize this shared goal. BAN KI-MOON Secretary-General iv Acknowledgements e World Economic and Social Survey is the annual agship publication on major development issues prepared by the Department of Economic and Social Aairs of the United Nations Secretariat (UN/DESA). e Survey was prepared under the general supervision and leadership of Rob Vos, Director of the Development Policy and Analysis Division (DPAD) of UN/ DESA. Manuel F. Montes led the team that prepared the report. e core team at DPAD included Diana Alarcón, Christina Bodouroglou, Nicole Hunt, S. Nazrul Islam, Alex Julca, Mariangela Parra-Lancourt, Vladimir Popov and Shari Spiegel. Administrative support was provided by Laura Dix and Lydia Gatan. Michael Brodsky of the Department of General Assembly Aairs and Conference Management copy- edited the original manuscript. June Chesney, who also undertook critical editing, led the copy preparation and proofreading team in DPAD, which included Leah C. Kennedy, and Valerian Monteiro (content design). David O’Connor, Richard A. Roehrl and Friedrich Soltau, colleagues from the Division for Sustainable Development (DSD) of UN/DESA, were part of the core team and also provided the principal inputs to chapter II of the report. Substantive contributions were also made by Sylvie I. Cohen and Andres Figueroa Davila of the United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN-Women) and Barbara Tavora-Jainchill of the Secretariat of the United Nations Forum on Forests (UNFF). We gratefully acknowledge the overall intellectual support for the project provided by Tariq Banuri, Director of DSD, and the background research contributions of Sally Brooks, Xiaolan Fu, Kelly Sims Gallagher, Arnulf Grübler, Tim Jackson, Bashir Jama, Michael Loevinsohn, Keywan Riahi, Jonathan R. Siegel, Aaron L. Strong and Charlie Wilson. Inputs and comments are gratefully acknowledged from across the wider United Nations system, including the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacic (Rae Kwon Chung and Masakazu Ichimura), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Dimo Calovski, Angel Gonzalez-Sanz, Mongi Hamdi, Richard Kozul-Wright, Michael Lim, Anne Miroux and Padmashree Gehl Sampath), the United Nations Development Programme (Francisco Rodriguez and other sta of the Human Development Report Oce) and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (Augusto Luis Alacorta). e report also beneted from discussions with researchers at the International Food Policy Research Institute (Claudia Ringler, Mark Rosegrant and Máximo Torero) and the Centre for Policy Dialogue in Bangladesh (Fahmida Khatun and Rehman Sobhan), and from data provided by Nick Johnstone of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. In addition to these contributions, we also owe thanks for the insights provided by other participants, at two workshops organized within the framework of the preparation of this report, including Elias G. Carayannis, Chantal Line Carpentier, Ronald E. Findlay and Richard Nelson. Critical overall guidance was provided by Jomo Kwame Sundaram, Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development at UN/DESA. v Overview The green technological transformation “Business as usual” is not an option While humankind has made enormous progress in improving material welfare over the past two centuries, this progress has come at the lasting cost of degradation of our natu- ral environment. About half of the forests that covered the earth are gone, groundwater resources are being depleted and contaminated, enormous reductions in biodiversity have already taken place and, through increased burning of fossil fuels, the stability of the planet’s climate is being threatened by global warming. In order for populations in devel- oping countries to achieve a decent living standard, especially the billions who currently still live in conditions of abject poverty, and the additional 2 billion people who will have been added to the world’s population by mid-century—much greater economic progress will be needed. Continuation along previously trodden economic growth pathways will fur- ther exacerbate the pressures exerted on the world’s resources and natural environment, which would approach limits where livelihoods were no longer sustainable. Business as usual is thus not an option. Yet, even if we stop global engines of growth now, the deple- tion and pollution of our natural environment would still continue because of existing consumption patterns and production methods. Hence, there is an urgent need to nd new development pathways which would ensure environmental sustainability and reverse ecological destruction, while managing to provide, now and in the future, a decent liveli- hood for all of humankind. The green economy as the new paradigm? To achieve this goal, a radically new economic strategy will be needed. Economic decision- making, by Governments and private agents alike, will need to focus on ways to strength- en, rather than endanger, environmental sustainability. e “green economy” has been promoted as the key concept in this regard—the concept that embodies the promise of a new development paradigm, whose application has the potential to ensure the preservation of the earth’s ecosystem along new economic growth pathways while contributing at the same time to poverty reduction. ere is no unique denition of the green economy, but, however imprecisely dened, there is broad agreement on the basic idea underpinning it, namely, that enhanc- ing economic growth, social progress and environmental stewardship can be complemen- tary strategic objectives and that the need for possible trade-os among them en route to their realization can be overcome. In this sense, the focus of the concept is fully consistent with that of the sustainable development concept eleborated by the United Nations, which perceives the economic, social and environmental dimensions as the three pillars of de- velopment and which stresses the importance of intergenerational equity in development, that is, ensuring that meeting the needs of the present generation does not compromise the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. vi World Economic and Social Survey 2011 Further, the green economy concept is based on the conviction that the ben- ets of investing in environmental sustainability outweigh the cost of not doing so, as much as it outweighs the cost of having to protect ecosystems from the damages caused by a “non-green” (brown) economy. A technological revolution is needed … Growth of the world population, per capita income, energy and resource use, waste and the production of pollutants (including greenhouse gas emissions) have all increased ex- ponentially since the rst industrial revolution. A depiction of these increases assumes the shape of a hockey stick (see gure O.1 (a) to (d)). e related increase in the level of human activity is threatening to surpass the limits of the Earth’s capacity as a source and sink. e objective of the green economy is to ensure that those limits are not crossed. One option for achieving this would be to limit income growth, as it would also, given existing production methods, limit the growth of resource use, waste and pollutants. However, doing so would complicate eorts to meet the development objective and would thus not be in the interest of developing countries, which are home to the vast majority of the world’s population. Reducing population growth could be another option; but this could be achieved more eectively by improving living standards. Reducing non-renewable energy and resource use, reducing waste and pollutants, and reversing land degradation and biodiversity losses would then seem key to greening the economy. A fundamental technological overhaul will be required. Technologies will need to undergo drastic changes so as to become more ecient in the use of energy and other resources and minimize the generation of harmful pollutants. At present, 90 per Figure O.1(a) Exponential growth of world population, 1750-2050 Billions 0 2 4 6 8 10 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Sources: For 1750-1949, United Nations, “The world at six billion” (1999), p. 5, table 1, entitled “World population, year 0 to near stabilization”; for 1950-2050, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Aairs, Population Division, “World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision” (medium variant) (New York, 2011). Note: Projections begin after 2010, and are based on the medium variant. viiOverview cent of energy is generated through brown technologies that utilize fossil fuels, with this Figure O.1(b) Growth of world per capita income, 1820-2008 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 1820 1870 1920 1970 2020 Figure O.1(c) Rise in energy consumption since the first industrial revolution, 1850-2000 400 500 300 200 100 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 Primary energy (exajoules) Microchip Renewable Nuclear Steam engine Electric motor Gasoline engine Vacuum tube Commercial aviation Television Gas Oil Coal Biomass Nuclear energy Source: Angus Maddison, “Maddison data on population and GDP”. Available from http:// sites.google.com/site/ econgeodata/maddison- data-on-population-gdp. Source: United Nations (2009), gure II.4. viii World Economic and Social Survey 2011 type of production being responsible for about 60 per cent of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emis- sions. According to the more cautious scenario, for CO 2 equivalent concentrations to be stabilized at 450 parts per million (consistent with the target of stabilizing global warming at a 2 º C temperature increase from pre-industrial levels), the use of fossil fuels would need to drop by 80 per cent by mid-century. Reducing the energy use and greenhouse gas emissions associated with growing and increasingly urban populations will require drastic changes in consumption patterns, transportation systems, residential and building infrastructure, and water and sanitation systems. Modern agriculture, which underpins global food security, currently contrib- utes about 14 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions, and the land-use and water man- agement related thereto are not sustainable in many parts of the world. Deforestation is contributing an estimated 17 per cent of global emissions, while causing the loss of habitat, species and biodiversity in general. As with regard to energy, technologies do exist that are known to ensure more sustainable farming and forestry management, prevention of land erosion and strict limits on water pollution by agriculture, but a great deal more innova- tion and knowledge sharing is needed to allow for their adaptation to local conditions. At the same time, however, inasmuch as nearly 1 billion people are undernourished and are facing serious food insecurity, global food production would need to increase by between 70 and 100 per cent from present levels by 2050 in order to feed a growing population. us, there is an urgent need to make agricultural production environmentally sustain- able, while at the same time substantially raising productivity. It is hard to imagine how this can be attained without a major overhaul of existing production systems, technologies and supporting infrastructure. Figure O.1(d) Exponential increase in greenhouse gas emissions, 1816-2008 Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration: parts per million 250 300 350 400 1816 1850 1900 1950 2000 Source: United States Department of Energy, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) (see http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov). ixOverview e incidence of natural disasters has increased vefold since the 1970s. is increase can, with a fair degree of certainty, be attributed in part to climate change in- duced by human activity. Deforestation, degradation of natural coastal protection and poor infrastructure have increased the likelihood that weather shocks will turn into hu- man disasters, especially in the least developed countries. Reducing disaster risk will then entail signicant technological and social change, including rebuilding of infrastructure and better land-use and water management in vulnerable areas with vulnerable social groups fully taking part in decision-making processes related to the implementation of systems of community resilience to climate change and disasters. … which will be like no other Many of the technologies needed for a green economy are already available, as evidenced, for example, by the range of options for generating renewable energy (wind, solar power and biofuels, among others), technologies for carbon capture and more ecient energy use, techniques to replace non-biodegradable resources, and sustainable farming and forestry techniques, as well as technologies to render coastlines and infrastructure less prone to natural disasters. ese options oer readily usable starting points. e main challenges to jump-starting the shift to a green economy lie in how to further improve these techniques, adapt them to specic local and sectoral needs, scale up the applications so as to bring down signicantly their costs, and provide incentives and mechanisms that will facilitate their diusion and knowledge-sharing. Meeting these challenges successfully is easier said than done. As so many of the components of existing economic systems are “locked into” the use of non-green and non-sustainable technologies, much is at stake in terms of the high cost of moving out of those technologies. Developing countries, especially low-income ones, with relatively low rates of electricity usage, may be able to “leapfrog” into electricity generation based on renewable forms of primary energy, for instance. e question is how to enable those countries to access, utilize and, above all, aord green technologies. Further innovation and scaling up are also needed to drive down unit costs. Technologies will need to be “transferred”’ and made accessible, since most innovation takes place in the developed countries and private corporations in those countries are the main owners of the intellectual property rights covering most green technologies. e new technologies will also need to be locked into new production processes. is would imply improving much existing infrastructure and actively promoting green technologies and industries. Consequently, the technological revolution for a green economy will be fundamentally dierent from previous revolutions—in three ways. First, it will have to take place within a specic and limited time period. Given existing pressures on our ecosystem, the goal would need to be achieved within the next three to four decades—a huge challenge, given that diusion of technologies is a slow process. Previous technological revolutions typically required a substantially longer period of time than that available now to accomplish the required green technology revolution. Second, Governments will have to assume a much more central role, the lim- ited time frame being one key reason for this. Under current circumstances, there needs to be an acceleration of technological innovation and diusion, which is unlikely to occur if they are left to market forces. Equally important is the fact that the natural environment is [...]... technology transfers to and development in developing countries This will include using a broader set of tools in intellectual property and multilateral trade policies 4 5 A/CONF.206/6 and Corr.1, chap I, resolution 2 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2011, decision 1, CP.16, sect II xix xx World Economic and Social Survey 2011 Second, securing adequate development finance and policy space... and reducing food contamination and greenhouse gas emissions Development of new high-yielding varieties of crops, a central focus of the first green revolution in agriculture, should continue, provided such development is xv xvi World Economic and Social Survey 2011 Figure O.3 Diverging productivity growth of cereal food crops, by region, 1961-2009 60 000 Hectograms per hectare of cultivated land World. .. fuels with no visible shift in the direction of a new transition towards renewable and cleaner primary energy sources, despite national and international efforts to accelerate technological change in energy generation in response to the oil crises of the 1970s and xi xii World Economic and Social Survey 2011 Figure O.2 Two grand-scale transitions undergone by global energy systems, 1850-2008 100 Share of... Nations) MCDA multi-criteria decision analysis WGP world gross product mpg miles per gallon WHO World Health Organization MtCO2e metric tones of CO2 equivalent WTO World Trade Organization Mtoe millions of tons of oil equivalent VC venture capital MW megawatt ZJ zettajoules CAFE xxxiv World Economic and Social Survey 2011 The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication... significant changes in social structure, market institutions, living arrangements and lifestyles Inevitably, radical technological change will have strong distributive effects across and within countries Some countries and groups will be negatively affected by reduced demand for their products and resources On the other hand, countries that keep up with research and development efforts and manage to generate...x World Economic and Social Survey 2011 a public good and not “priced” by the market Markets for green technologies do exist, but they are just developing, created through government policy Governments will also have to play a key role in promoting further research on and development of green technologies and their diffusion, inasmuch as the benefits will... architectures for environment, technology transfer, trade, aid and finance so as to facilitate coordination among what will likely be a diverse set of country strategies for green growth and ensure that they add up to global targets for environmental sustainability xxiii xxiv World Economic and Social Survey 2011 At the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, held in Rio de Janeiro from 3 to 14... access to modern fuels and electricity National energy technology innovation strategies Investments in research, development and demonstration (RD&D), market formation, and diffusion Investment in market formation Investment in diffusion 27 30 30 31 32 33 34 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 xxvi World Economic and Social Survey 2011 Government energy... Financing and external transfers The way forward IV 82 83 126 National policies for green development 131 Introduction Market and systemic failures Uncertainty, externalities and public goods-related problems 131 132 133 86 93 93 94 xxviii World Economic and Social Survey 2011 Systems of... which renewable technologies can be scaled up and the extent to which energy efficiency can be increased to meet growing energy demand, caps on energy consumption 1 2 3 United Nations, Treaty Series, vol 1552, No 26369 Ibid., vol 2303, No 30822 Ibid., vol 1771, No 30822 xiii xiv World Economic and Social Survey 2011 (with significant implications for production and consumption processes) to complement emission . World Economic and Social Survey 2011 World Economic and Social Survey 2011: The Great Green Technological Transformation United. exceeded. The World Economic and Social Survey 2011 analyses the challenges and options involved in shiing to a “green economy” based on more ecient and renewable