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RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Alan J. Vick, Adam Grissom, William Rosenau, Beth Grill, Karl P. Mueller Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited PROJECT AIR FORCE Air Power in the New Counterinsurgency Era The Strategic Importance of USAF Advisory and Assistance Missions The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R ® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2006 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2006 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: order@rand.org Cover image of CT team: Combat Aviation Advisors from the 6th SOS and regular army soldiers from Chad in front of a Chad Air Force C-130. The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Air power in the new counterinsurgency era : the strategic importance of USAF advisory and assistance missions / Alan J. Vick [et al.]. p. cm. “MG-509.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN-13: 978-0-8330-3963-7 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Counterinsurgency—United States. 2. Air power—United States. 3. United States. Air Force. 4. Military assistance, American 5. Military missions. 6. World politics—21st century. I. Vick, Alan. U241.A57 2006 358.4'1425—dc22 2006019803 iii Preface With insurgency growing in importance as a national security prob- lem, it is receiving new interest across the services, in the Department of Defense (DoD), and elsewhere in the U.S. government. Although ongoing operations in Afghanistan and Iraq give particular immediacy to the problem, the challenge of insurgency extends well beyond these specific conflicts. It is important, therefore, that the U.S. Air Force (USAF) consider how to meet the growing demand for air power in joint, combined, and interagency counterinsurgency operations and that other services’ and DoD-wide reassessments of the subject take the potential roles of air power in counterinsurgency fully into account. In particular, airmen should take the lead in exploring how air power might work in combination with other military and civil instruments to help avert the development of an insurgency or perhaps to check a growing insurgency long enough to allow political and social initiatives (the heart of any successful counterinsurgency strategy) to take hold. To address these and related policy challenges, RAND Project AIR FORCE conducted a fiscal year 2005 study entitled “e USAF’s Role in Countering Insurgencies.” is study addressed four major policy questions: (1) What threat do modern insurgencies pose to U.S. interests? (2) What strategy should the United States pursue to counter insurgent threats? (3) What role does military power play in defeat- ing insurgencies? (4) What steps should USAF take to most effectively contribute to counterinsurgency? is work builds on more than 40 iv Air Power in the New Counterinsurgency Era years of RAND Corporation work on insurgency, peace operations, and other types of lesser conflicts. 1 is monograph has several purposes and audiences. First, it seeks to be a short primer on the problem of insurgency, counterinsurgency principles, and the role of air power in countering insurgencies. It is hoped that it will be a valuable introduction for airmen new to the topic. Second, it is hoped that the analysis on the potential demand for advisory assistance, as well as the data collection and analysis of recent 6th Special Operations Squadron (6 SOS) missions, will offer new insights to counterinsurgency practitioners in USAF. Finally, the monograph seeks to offer senior USAF leaders a way ahead to develop increased capability in this area without sacrificing the Air Force’s edge in major combat operations. e research reported here was sponsored by the Director of Oper- ational Planning, Headquarters U.S. Air Force, and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpo- ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop- ment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aero- space forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Aerospace Force 1 Between 1958 and 2005, RAND published over 50 reports with counterinsurgency in the title. In the same period, the abstracts for over 200 RAND reports included the term. For an overview of RAND work on this topic, see Austin Long, On “Other War”: Lessons from Five Decades of RAND Counterinsurgency Research, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corpora- tion, MG-482-OSD, 2006. One of the earlier RAND works on counterinsurgency reports the results of a 1962 symposium at which scholars, planners, and practitioners came together to discuss the state of the art. See Stephen T. Hosmer and S. O. Crane, Counterinsurgency: A Symposium, April 16–20, 1962, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, R-412-ARPA, 1962. For a more recent work, see Bruce Hoffman, Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, OP-127-IPC/CMEPP, 2004a. Preface v Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Manage- ment; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site at http://www.rand.org/paf. Contents vii Preface iii Figures xi Tables xiii Summary xv Acknowledgments xix Abbreviations xxiii CHAPTER ONE Introduction 1 Background 1 e Dilemma of Intervention 4 Purpose and Organization of is Monograph 6 CHAPTER TWO e Evolving Insurgency Challenge 7 Introduction 7 Defining Insurgency 8 Categorizing Insurgencies 12 Sources of Insurgency 16 Insurgency and U.S. Security 20 Conclusion 25 viii Air Power in the New Counterinsurgency Era CHAPTER THREE e Challenge of Counterinsurgency: Lessons from the Cold War and After 27 Introduction 27 Four Principles 32 1. Understand the Adversary 32 2. Build State Capacity and Presence 37 3. Control the Population 41 4. Keep the Use of Force to a Minimum 45 Conclusion 50 CHAPTER FOUR Grand Strategy and Counterinsurgency 53 Introduction 53 Assessing Insurgent reats to U.S. National Security 54 When Do Insurgencies reaten U.S. Security Interests? 54 e Importance of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Future U.S. Grand Strategy 57 Grand Strategies for Small Wars 59 Differences Between Counterinsurgency and Conventional Military Requirements 59 Differences Between Counterinsurgency and Conventional Military Strategy 62 Coercion in Counterinsurgency 64 Options for Counterinsurgency Intervention 69 e Diversity of Counterinsurgency 69 Ideal Types: Precautionary and Remedial Counterinsurgency 70 Advantages and Limitations of Precautionary Counterinsurgency 72 Investing in Counterinsurgency Capabilities 74 Optimizing Military Capabilities for Counterinsurgency 74 When, How, and Where Will the United States Intervene? 76 e Roles of Allies in Counterinsurgency 77 [...]... expertise does exist in USAF, but, outside of AFSOC, it is scattered and limited Substantial counterinsurgency education should be a mandatory part of the cur- xviii Air Power in the New Counterinsurgency Era riculum in the Air Force Reserve Officer Training Corps, at the Air Force Academy, and in all phases of Air Force Professional Military Education from Squadron Officer School to the Air War College Opportunities... organizations and processes to oversee USAF counterinsurgency efforts The USAF will need new organizations to develop and oversee counterinsurgency policy and concepts, to integrate efforts across the USAF, to coordinate with DoD and other agencies, and to execute counterinsurgency advisory and assistance missions (pp 133, 135) • Develop and nurture counterinsurgency expertise throughout USAF Counterinsurgency. .. financing fiscal year Georgia Train and Equip Program International Military and Advisory Training Team International Military Education and Training Joint Combined Exchange Training xxiii xxiv Air Power in the New Counterinsurgency Era LTTE Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (also known as the Tamil Tigers) MTT mobile training team NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NCO noncommissioned officer OAD operational... the partner government the resources and training so that it could take the political, military, economic, and other initiatives that would convince the people that the government is worthy of their allegiance Given these constraints on outside intervention, this monograph emphasizes the role of the U.S military, and USAF in particular, in training, advising, and equipping partner nations so that they... information on current insurgencies Appendix B explains the derivation of the manpower metric presented in Chapter Six CHAPTER TWO The Evolving Insurgency Challenge Introduction After a decade or more of languishing in obscurity, the phenomenon of insurgency reemerged as a subject of official, analytical, and academic interest during the first years of the 21st century The ongoing conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan... training, advising, and equipping efforts will be USAF s most common role in counterinsurgency, some situations may Summary xvii require U.S combat air power to team with indigenous or coalition ground forces or to participate in joint and interagency U.S counterinsurgency operations (pp 146–147) Recommendations for USAF USAF possesses a broad range of capabilities, in both its special and general-purpose... destroy the power and legitimacy of a ruling government, while at the same time increasing the power and legitimacy of the armed insurgent group.”10 This definition has a number of important strengths It highlights insurgency as a struggle for power and legitimacy, stresses the range of violent and nonviolent instruments that insurgents typically employ, and presents the idea that insurgency is in part... currently conducting counterinsurgency operations or providing support to governments facing insurgencies in Afghanistan, the Philippines, Colombia, Georgia, Iraq, and elsewhere Among the instances of major U.S involvement, there are significant ties between local insurgents and global jihadists in all but Colombia In Iraq, the United States is learning once again that counterinsurgency operations are complex,... Military Assistance: The El Salvador Experience 101 El Salvador: Lessons for Future Counterinsurgency Operations 107 CHAPTER SIX The USAF Role in Countering Insurgencies 109 The Role of Air Power in Counterinsurgency Operations 109 How Should We Think About the Role of Air Power in Counterinsurgency? ... States to work effectively with the United Nations, other international organizations, and nongovernmental organizations 4 Air Power in the New Counterinsurgency Era enormously helpful, if not essential, for global jihadism because they motivate and inspire a global audience, help recruiting and fund raising, and can provide a crucible for testing and training new recruits At the same time, connections . obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging -in- Publication Data Air power in the new counterinsurgency. important, therefore, that the U.S. Air Force (USAF) consider how to meet the growing demand for air power in joint, combined, and interagency counterinsurgency